The objective of prospectivity modeling is prediction of the conditional probability of the presence
The infrared imager onboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 15 (GOES-15) provides temporally continuous observations over a limited spatial domain. To quantify bias of the GOES-15 imager, observations from four infrared channels (2, 3, 4, and 6) are compared with simulations from the numerical weather prediction model and radiative transfer model. One-day clear-sky infrared observations from the GOES-15 imager over an oceanic domain during nighttime are selected. Two datasets, Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis and ERA-Interim reanalysis, are used as inputs to the radiative transfer model. The results show that magnitudes of biases for the GOES-15 surface channels are approximately 1 K using two datasets, whereas the magnitude of bias for the GOES-15 water vapor channel can reach 5.5 K using the GFS dataset and 2.5 K using the ERA dataset. The GOES-15 surface channels show positive dependencies on scene temperature, whereas the water vapor channel has a weak dependence on scene temperature. The strong dependence of bias on sensor zenith angle for the GOES-15 water vapor channel using GFS analysis implies large biases might exist in GFS water vapor profiles.
Water resources availability has a significant impact on agricultural land-use planning, especially in a water shortage area such as North China. The random nature of available water resources and other uncertainties in an agricultural system present risk for land-use planning and may lead to undesirable decisions or potential economic loss. In this study, an inexact risk management model (IRM) was developed for supporting agricultural land-use planning and risk analysis under water shortage. The IRM model was formulated through incorporating a conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) constraint into an inexact two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) framework, and could be used to control uncertainties expressed as not only probability distributions but also as discrete intervals. The measure of risk about the second-stage penalty cost was incorporated into the model so that the trade-off between system benefit and extreme expected loss could be analyzed. The developed model was applied to a case study in the Zhangweinan River Basin, a typical agricultural region facing serious water shortage in North China. Solutions of the IRM model showed that the obtained first-stage land-use target values could be used to reflect decision-makers’ opinions on the long-term development plan. The confidence level α and maximum acceptable risk loss β could be used to reflect decision-makers’ preference towards system benefit and risk control. The results indicated that the IRM model was useful for reflecting the decision-makers’ attitudes toward risk aversion and could help seek cost-effective agricultural land-use planning strategies under complex uncertainties.
Coupled hydrological and atmospheric modeling is an effective tool for providing advanced flood forecasting. However, the uncertainties in precipitation forecasts are still considerable. To address uncertainties, a one-way coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system, with a combination of high-resolution and ensemble precipitation forecasting, has been developed. It consists of three high-resolution single models and four sets of ensemble forecasts from the THORPEX Interactive Grande Global Ensemble database. The former provides higher forecasting accuracy, while the latter provides the range of forecasts. The combined precipitation forecasting was then implemented to drive the Chinese National Flood Forecasting System in the 2007 and 2008 Huai River flood hindcast analysis. The encouraging results demonstrated that the system can clearly give a set of forecasting hydrographs for a flood event and has a promising relative stability in discharge peaks and timing for warning purposes. It not only gives a deterministic prediction, but also generates probability forecasts. Even though the signal was not persistent until four days before the peak discharge was observed in the 2007 flood event, the visualization based on threshold exceedance provided clear and concise essential warning information at an early stage. Forecasters could better prepare for the possibility of a flood at an early stage, and then issue an actual warning if the signal strengthened. This process may provide decision support for civil protection authorities. In future studies, different weather forecasts will be assigned various weight coefficients to represent the covariance of predictors and the extremes of distributions.
Crop simulation models provide alternative, less time-consuming, and cost-effective means of determining the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change. In this study, two dynamic mechanistic models, CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis) and APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator), were used to simulate the yield of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under well irrigated (CFG) and rain-fed (YY) conditions in relation to different climate variables in the North China Plain (NCP). The study tested winter wheat yield sensitivity to different levels of temperature, radiation, precipitation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration under CFG and YY conditions at Luancheng Agro-ecosystem Experimental Stations in the NCP. The results from the CERES and APSIM wheat crop models were largely consistent and suggested that changes in climate variables influenced wheat grain yield in the NCP. There was also significant variation in the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to climate variables under different water (CFG and YY) conditions. While a temperature increase of 2°C was the threshold beyond which temperature negatively influenced wheat yield under CFG, a temperature rise exceeding 1°C decreased winter wheat grain yield under YY. A decrease in solar radiation decreased wheat grain yield under both CFG and YY conditions. Although the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to precipitation was small under the CFG, yield decreased significantly with decreasing precipitation under the rain-fed YY treatment. The results also suggest that wheat yield under CFG linearly increased by ≈3.5% per 60 ppm (parts per million) increase in CO2 concentration from 380 to 560 ppm, and yield under YY increased linearly by ≈7.0% for the same increase in CO2 concentration.
This study focuses on defining rates of fluvial incision for the last 580±5 kyr along valley systems of eight streams that drain the eastern part of the northern Peloponnese. The streams are developed on the uplifted block of the offshore-running Xylokastro normal fault, one of the main faults bounding the southern edge of the Gulf of Corinth half-graben, and have incised a set of ten uplifted marine terraces having an amphitheatric shape. These terraces range in age from 60±5 kyr to 580±5 kyr and have been mapped in detail and correlated with late Pleistocene oxygen-isotope stages of high sea-level stands by previous studies. The terraces were used in this paper as reference surfaces in order to define fluvial incision rates at the lower reaches of the studied streams. To evaluate incision rates, thirty-three topographic valley cross-sections were drawn using fieldwork measurements as well as using a highly accurate (2×2 cell size) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) at specific locations where streams cut down the inner edges of the marine terraces. For each cross-section the ratio of valley floor width to valley height (Vf) and long-term mean stream incision rates were estimated for the last 580±5 kyr, while rock uplift rates were estimated for the last 330±5 kyr. The geomorphic evolution of the valleys on the uplifted block of the Xylokastro fault has been mainly driven by the lithology of the bedrock, sea level fluctuations during the late Quaternary, and incision of the channels due to the tectonic uplift. Stream incision rates range from 0.10±0.1 mm/yr for the last 123±7 kyr to 1.14±0.1 mm/yr for the last 310±5 kyr and are gradually greater from east to west depending on the distance from the trace of the fault. Downcutting rates are comparable with the rock uplift rates, which range from 0.4±0.02 mm/yr to 1.49±0.12 mm/yr, over the last 330±5 kyr.
The presence of the Kerguelen Plateau and surrounding bathymetric features has a strong influence on the persistently eastward flowing Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), resulting in enhancement of surface chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) in the downstream section of the plateau along the polar front (PF). The phenomenon is reported in this paper as the island mass effect (IME). Analysis of climatological Chl-a datasets from Aqua-Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (Aqua-MODIS) and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) shows distinct bloomy plumes (Chl-a>0.5 mg/m3) during austral spring-summer spreading as far as ~1800 km offshore up to 98°E along the downstream of the north Kerguelen Plateau (NKP). Similar IME phenomena is apparent over the south Kerguelen Plateau (SKP) with the phytoplankton bloom extending up to 96.7°E, along the southern boundary of ACC. The IME phenomena are pronounced only during austral spring-summer period with the availability of light and sedimentary source of iron from shallow plateau to sea surface that fertilizes the mixed layer. The NKP bloom peaks with a maximum areal extent of 1.315 million km2 during December, and the SKP bloom peaks during January with a time lag of one month. The blooms exist for at least 4 months of a year and are significant both as the base of regional food web and for regulating the biogeochemical cycle in the Southern Ocean. Even though the surface water above the Kerguelen Plateau is rich in Chl-a, an exception of an oligotrophic condition dominated between NKP and SKP due to apparent intrusion of iron limited low phytoplankton regime waters from the Enderby basin through the north-eastward Fawn Trough Current.
This research revealed important driving forces behind the construction of an eco-compensation mechanism for wetlands (DFEMW) in China. Using China’s provincial panel data from 1978 to 2008, a fixed-effects model was used to analyze the impacts of agricultural production systems on wetlands. We identified three DFEMW as follows: the change of wetland resources and protection measures in China; declaration and implementation of the provincial Wetland Protection Ordinance; and wetland degradation by agricultural production systems, which necessitated the establishment of a wetland eco-compensation mechanism. In addition to the DFEMW, a significant positive correlation between wetland area and both rural population and gross agricultural production was identified, in addition to a negative correlation with chemical fertilizer usage, reservoir storage capacity, and irrigation area. The underlying reasons for the serious degradation and inadequate protection of wetlands were market failure and government failure; these were the driving forces behind the need to establish a wetland eco-compensation mechanism. From a governmental perspective, it has been difficult to rectify market failures in resource distribution and thus to prevent wetland degradation. Factors include conflicts of interest, lack of investment, effective special laws, a simple means to protect wetlands, and a multidisciplinary management system. Therefore, the key factor is the coordination of interest relationships between those who utilize wetlands and those who seek to minimize wetland degradation and effectively protect wetlands.
This study analyzed the changes in precipitation over summer and autumn across the Yunnan region of China, and undertook a composite analysis of the atmospheric circulations in the troposphere, which included an analysis of the interannual and interdecadal variations. This paper examines in detail the circulation backgrounds of the wet and dry periods in summer and autumn and their correlations with the sea surface temperature. The results indicated that the summer and autumn precipitation across Yunnan has significantly decreased over the past 50 years. Furthermore, since the beginning of the century, the summer and autumn precipitation cycle has been in a low precipitation phase. The overlap of two extremely low rain phases has caused frequent droughts in the region. In addition, the atmospheric circulation fields during these wet and dry periods are very different. These are mainly shown as a meridional wind anomaly in eastern China in the low atmosphere, as a cross-equatorial airflow anomaly, a tropical zonal wind anomaly over the Indian Ocean, and as a related South Asia High and Western Pacific Subtropical High. Further analysis suggested that the SST over the Indian Ocean and the Pacific warm pool critically affect the anomalous summer and autumn precipitation over Yunnan by impacting the monsoon circulations. Future projections for greenhouse gas warming suggest a potential anomalous circulation background between 2010 and 2020 which may result in less precipitation during the wet season or even drought events across the Yunnan region.
The influence of shallow groundwater on the diurnal heat transport of the soil profile was analyzed using a soil sensor automatic monitoring system that continuously measures temperature and water content of soil profiles to simulate heat transport based on the Philip and de Vries (PDV) model. Three experiments were conducted to measure soil properties at depths of 5 cm, 10 cm, 20 cm, and 30 cm when groundwater tables reached 10 cm, 30 cm, and 60 cm (Experiments I, II, and III). Results show that both the soil temperature near shallow groundwater and the soil water content were effectively simulated by the PDV model. The root mean square errors of the temperature at depths of 5 cm, 10 cm, and 20 cm were 1.018°C, 0.909°C, and 0.255°C, respectively. The total heat flux generated the convergent and divergent planes in space-time fields with valley values of –161.5 W·m−2 at 7:30 and –234.6 W·m−2 at 11:10 in Experiments II and III, respectively. The diurnal heat transport of the saturated soil occurred in five stages, while that of saturated-unsaturated and unsaturated soil profiles occurred in four stages because high moisture content led to high thermal conductivity, which hastened the heat transport.
Urbanization processes affect the ecosystem through alterations in ecological functions and landscape patterns. Currently, analysis of the total ecosystem services value (ESV) has targeted the overall benefits which human beings obtain from the regional ecosystem but does not generally include information regarding ecological structures and patterns. Therefore, the results cannot reflect the comprehensive state of the local ecosystem. We propose a new, integrative ecosystem quality indicator based on the ESV and landscape metrics for evaluating the quality of the regional ecosystem. We adopted the method of a coupled degree of coordination for evaluating the interrelationship between urbanization and ecosystem quality in Lianyungang City from 1985 to 2010. The coupling degree of coordination between urbanization and ecosystem quality showed an inverse U-shaped curve. At the primary stage of urbanization (1985‒1995), the degree of coupling of urbanization and the ecosystem was just barely balanced. From 1995 until 2000, the coupling system reached a balanced condition, in which the urbanization level increased. Since 2000, the urbanization process has accelerated. The coordination between urbanization and the ecosystem achieved the optimum condition in 2005. A turning point appeared at the same time, and the degree of coupling coordination began falling from the optimum. Subsequently, the coupled system once more entered a barely balanced state. Overall, the comprehensive level of ecosystem quality decreased since 1985 and degraded sharply after 2005, suggesting an overall degradation of the local ecosystem quality.
For decades, the main threat to the water security of a metropolis, such as the city of Shanghai, has been the rapidly growing demand for water and at the same time, the decrease in water quality, including eutrophication. Therefore Shanghai shifted the preferred freshwater source to the Yangtze Estuary and constructed the Qingcaosha Reservoir, which is subject to less eutrophic water from the Yangtze River. To assess the population of phytoplankton for the first time in the newly built reservoir, this study improved an integrated method to assess the phytoplankton pattern in large-water-area reservoirs and lakes, using partial triadic analysis and Geographic Information Systems. Monthly sampling and monitoring from 10 stations in the reservoir from July 2010 to December 2011 were conducted. The study examined the common pattern of the phytoplankton population structure and determined the differences in the specific composition of the phytoplankton community during the transition period of the reservoir. The results suggest that in all but three sampling stations in the upper parts of Qingcaosha Reservoir, there was a strong common compromise in 2011. The two most important periods occurred from late summer to autumn and from winter to early spring. The former was characterized by the dominance of cyanobacteria, whereas the latter was characterized by the dominance of both chlorophyta and diatoms. Cyanobacteria (Microcystis spp. as the main genus) were the monopolistic dominant species in the summer after reservoir operation. The statistical analysis also indicated the necessity for regular monitoring to focus on the stations in the lower parts of the reservoir and on several limited species.
This study provides new insights into the nature of seasonal variations in coordinate time series of GPS sites located near active faults and methods of their modeling. Monthly averaged coordinate time series were analyzed for several pairs of collocated GPS sites situated near the active fault intersection area, in close proximity to the central part of the northern boundary of the Amurian plate and the vicinity of the San Andreas Fault zone. It is concluded that the observed seasonal variations are best described by a breather function which is one of the solutions of the well-known sine-Gordon equation. The obtained results suggest that, in this case, the source of seasonal variations may be caused by the appearance of solitary strain waves in the fault intersection system, which may be qualitatively treated as standing waves of compression-extension of the geological medium. Based on statistical testing, the limits of applicability of the suggested model have been established.
Moraine dams usually collapse due to overtopping by the surge wave in the dammed lake, and the surge wave is most likely caused by an earthquake. The seismic water wave (SWW) is a major factor causing the dam to break in the earthquake zone. This paper focused on the SWW by model experiments with a shaking water tank under conditions of various water depths, seismic waves, and peak ground accelerations. Two empirical equations were obtained for estimating maximal wave height for the low and high frequency, respectively. Finally, we present the application of the empirical equations on Midui Glacier Lake in Tibet plateau.
The Dalinor volcanic swarm, located south of Xilinhot, Inner Mongolia of China, was a result of multistage eruptions that occurred since the Neogene period. This swarm is mainly composed of volcanic cones and lava tablelands. The objective of this study is to map the topography and morphology of this volcanic swarm. It is based on a variety of data collected from various sources, such as the digital elevation model (DEM), Landsat images, and a 1:50,000 topographic map, in addition to various software platforms, including ArcGIS, Envi4.8, Global Mapper, and Google Earth for data processing and interpretation. The results show that the overall topography of the volcanic swarm is a platform with a central swell having great undulation, sizable gradient variations, a rough surface, and small terrain relief. According to the undulating characteristics of the line profile, the volcanic swarm can be divided into four stairs with heights of 1,280 m, 1,360 m, 1,440 m, and 1,500 m. The analysis of the swath profile characterizes the two clusters of volcanoes with different height ranges and evolution. The lava tablelands and volcanic cones are distributed in nearly EW-trending belts, where tableland coverage was delineated with superposed layers of gradients and degrees of relief. According to the morphology, the volcanic cones were classified into four types: conical, composite, dome, and shield. The formation causes and classification basis for each type of volcanic cone were analyzed and their parameters were extracted. The H/D ratios of all types of volcanic cones were then statistically determined and projected to create a map of volcanic density distribution. Based on the relationship between distribution and time sequence of the formation of different volcanic cones, it can be inferred that the volcanic eruptions migrated from the margins to the center of the lava plateau. The central area was formed through superposition of multi-stage eruptive materials. In addition, a large number of early shield volcanoes were distributed on the margins. The morphological analysis of volcanic cones reveals the evolutionary stages of different types of cones. From the interpreted geomorphological indicators of faults, such as surface scarps, the pattern of volcanic cones, and the arrangement of crater major axes, it can be inferred that NE-trending and nearly EW-trending faults are present in this area, which are closely related to the formation and distribution of the volcanoes.
This study concerns the precipitation induced by a tropical cyclone (TC) before the TC arrives, which will be referred to as TC remote precipitation (TRP). Based on the distribution characteristics of the non-rotational wind and the divergent-wind vertical circulation related to TC, the subtropical high, and TRP of 45 TRP events during June, July, and August of 2000?2009, the relationships among these three entities (TC, subtropical high, and TRP) can be categorized into four patterns. The first pattern accounts for the highest proportion of the TRP events (59%), and a conceptual model is then provided for this pattern. The primary characteristics of this model are as follows: TC, the subtropical high, and TRP can interact with each other through the divergent-wind secondary circulation at both sides of the ridge line of the subtropical high (between the subtropical high and TC, and between the subtropical high and TRP). At the upper level (150 or 200 hPa), the northward non-rotational wind from the TC converged toward the subtropical high ridge line and subsided, and at 950 hPa the divergent wind from the ridge line of the subtropical high converged toward TC; these constructed the secondary circulation between TC and the subtropical high. In the meantime, the southward non-rotational wind at the upper level (150 or 200 hPa) from TRP and the divergent wind at 950 hPa from the subtropical high ridge line toward TRP constructed the secondary circulation between TRP and the subtropical high. As TC and TRP interacted with each other, the subtropical high ridge line was usually under the downdraft area of the whole atmosphere. The other three patterns are different from the first pattern mainly in terms of the intensity and position of the non-rotational-wind secondary circulation. The numerical simulation of the Beijing 7·21 rainstorm confirmed the relationship among TC, the subtropical high, and TRP, indicating that when the interaction weakened, the TRP also weakened.