Monitoring fossil fuel CO₂ emissions from co-emitted NO₂ observed from space: progress, challenges, and future perspectives

Abstract

Developing an anthropogenic carbon dioxides (CO₂) emissions monitoring and verification support (MVS) capacity is essential to support the Global Stocktake (GST) and ratchet up Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The 2019 IPCC refinement proposes top-down inversed CO₂ emissions, primarily from fossil fuel (FFCO₂), as a viable emission dataset. Despite substantial progress in directly inferring FFCO₂ emissions from CO₂ observations, substantial challenges remain, particularly in distinguishing local CO₂ enhancements from the high background due to the long atmospheric lifetime. Alternatively, using short-lived and co-emitted nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) as a proxy in FFCO₂ emission inversion has gained prominence. This methodology is broadly categorized into plume-based and emission ratios (ERs)-based inversion methods. In the plume-based methods, NO₂ observations act as locators, constraints, and validators for deciphering CO₂ plumes downwind of sources, typically at point source and city scales. The ERs-based inversion approach typically consists of two steps: inferring NO₂-based nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emissions and converting NO_x to CO₂ emissions using CO₂-to-NO_x ERs. While integrating NO₂ observations into FFCO₂ emission inversion offers advantages over the direct CO₂-based methods, uncertainties persist, including both structural and data-related uncertainties. Addressing these uncertainties is a primary focus for future research, which includes deploying next-generation satellites and developing advanced inversion systems. Besides, data caveats are necessary when releasing data to users to prevent potential misuse. Advancing NO₂-based CO₂ emission inversion requires interdisciplinary collaboration across multiple communities of remote sensing, emission inventory, transport model improvement, and atmospheric inversion algorithm development.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

Fossil fuel CO ₂ emissions / CO ₂ satellites / NO ₂ satellites / Emission inversion methods / Uncertainty management / Future perspectives

Highlight

	● CO2 emission monitoring supports achieving Nationally Determined Contributions.
	● Co-emitted NO x and CO2 in fuel combustion enable NO2-based CO2 emission inversion.
	● Structural and data uncertainties challenge researchers but guide future pathway.
	● Interdisciplinary collaboration is crucial for advancing CO2 emission inversion.

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