Monitoring fossil fuel CO₂ emissions from co-emitted NO₂ observed from space: progress, challenges, and future perspectives

Highlights

	● CO2 emission monitoring supports achieving Nationally Determined Contributions.
	● Co-emitted NO x and CO2 in fuel combustion enable NO2-based CO2 emission inversion.
	● Structural and data uncertainties challenge researchers but guide future pathway.
	● Interdisciplinary collaboration is crucial for advancing CO2 emission inversion.

Abstract

Developing an anthropogenic carbon dioxides (CO₂) emissions monitoring and verification support (MVS) capacity is essential to support the Global Stocktake (GST) and ratchet up Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The 2019 IPCC refinement proposes top-down inversed CO₂ emissions, primarily from fossil fuel (FFCO₂), as a viable emission dataset. Despite substantial progress in directly inferring FFCO₂ emissions from CO₂ observations, substantial challenges remain, particularly in distinguishing local CO₂ enhancements from the high background due to the long atmospheric lifetime. Alternatively, using short-lived and co-emitted nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) as a proxy in FFCO₂ emission inversion has gained prominence. This methodology is broadly categorized into plume-based and emission ratios (ERs)-based inversion methods. In the plume-based methods, NO₂ observations act as locators, constraints, and validators for deciphering CO₂ plumes downwind of sources, typically at point source and city scales. The ERs-based inversion approach typically consists of two steps: inferring NO₂-based nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emissions and converting NO_x to CO₂ emissions using CO₂-to-NO_x ERs. While integrating NO₂ observations into FFCO₂ emission inversion offers advantages over the direct CO₂-based methods, uncertainties persist, including both structural and data-related uncertainties. Addressing these uncertainties is a primary focus for future research, which includes deploying next-generation satellites and developing advanced inversion systems. Besides, data caveats are necessary when releasing data to users to prevent potential misuse. Advancing NO₂-based CO₂ emission inversion requires interdisciplinary collaboration across multiple communities of remote sensing, emission inventory, transport model improvement, and atmospheric inversion algorithm development.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

Fossil fuel CO₂ emissions / CO₂ satellites / NO₂ satellites / Emission inversion methods / Uncertainty management / Future perspectives

Bo Zheng is an associate professor at Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School. He received B.S. and Ph.D. degrees from Tsinghua University in Environmental Engineering. Then he completed a four-year postdoctoral training at the Laboratory for Sciences of Climate and Environment in France before joining Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School as an Assistant Professor in 2021. He focuses on the atmospheric carbon cycle and has developed a variety of techniques to analyze the sources and sinks of atmospheric constituents (e.g., greenhouse gases and air pollutants) based on satellite remote sensing. He has published over 150 peer-reviewed articles, which have received over 27000 times citations with an H-index of 66 (Google scholar)

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 42105094).

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