Temporal and spatial evolution of agricultural carbon emissions in Fujian Province, China
Weiye LI, Zhiqiang CHEN, Zhibiao CHEN, Yuee ZENG, Wenjing HU
Temporal and spatial evolution of agricultural carbon emissions in Fujian Province, China
● The total amount and intensity of agricultural carbon emissions (ACE) in Fujian Province from 2002−2022, had a fluctuating downward trend and this trend is predicted to continue. | |
● Agricultural material inputs were the largest source of ACE in Fujian Province. | |
● ACE in Fujian Province had a spatial pattern of higher levels in the west and lower in the east. | |
● Agricultural production efficiency was the most crucial factor in the reduction of ACE. | |
● Fujian Province has achieved a strong level of decoupling between ACE and agricultural economic development. |
Analyzing the changes in agricultural carbon emissions (ACE) and their influencing factors can provide a sound basis for accurately estimating the carbon balance of agroecosystems. Such analyses can serve as a reference for developing policies to mitigate global climate change and promote sustainable agricultural development. Using the carbon emission calculation framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this study examined the spatiotemporal characteristics of ACE, including total amount, intensity, structure and their influencing factors, in Fujian Province from 2002 to 2022. The logarithmic mean scale index model and Tapio decoupling model were used, with the GM (1,1) model to forecast carbon emissions from 2023 to 2040. The results indicate that both the total emissions and intensity of ACE had fluctuating downward trends and agricultural material inputs were the largest contributors to ACE. Additionally, total ACE was found to have a spatial pattern higher in the west and lower in the east and agricultural production efficiency was the primary factor in reducing ACE. ACE was clearly decoupled from economic development and is projected to continually decline after 2023.
Agricultural carbon emissions / Fujian Province / logarithmic mean scale index / spatiotemporal characteristics / Tapio decoupling model
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