STRATEGIES FOR A LOW-CARBON FOOD SYSTEM IN CHINA

Highlights

● A provincial stage-specific greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting model for the Chinese food system was developed.

● From 1992 to 2017, the net GHG emission from the Chinese food system increased by 38% from 785 to 1080 Tg CO₂-eq.

● In 2017, top GHG emission regions were located in the central and southern China, the North China Plain and Northeast China, while GHG sink regions were Tibet, Qinghai and Xinjiang.

● Total GHG emission from the Chinese food system could be reduced to 355 Tg CO₂-eq in a low-carbon scenario, with enhancing mitigation technologies, transforming diet and its related conditions and increasing agricultural activities contributing 60%, 25% and 15% of the GHG reductions, respectively.

Abstract

In China, there has been insufficient study of whole food system greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting, which limits the development of mitigation strategies and may preclude the achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. The paper presents the development of a carbon extension of NUFER (NUtrient flows in Food chain, Environment and Resources use model), a food system GHG emission accounting model that covers land use and land-use change, agricultural production, and post-production subsectors. The spatiotemporal characteristics of GHG emissions were investigated for the Chinese food system (CFS) from 1992 to 2017, with a focus on GHG emissions from the entire system. The potential to achieve a low-carbon food system in China was explored. The net GHG emissions from the CFS increased from 785 Tg CO₂ equivalent (CO₂-eq) in 1992 to 1080 Tg CO₂-eq in 2017. Agricultural activities accounted for more than half of the total emissions during the study period, while agricultural energy was the largest contributor to the GHG increase. In 2017, highest emitting regions were located in central and southern China (Guangdong and Hunan), the North China Plain (Shandong, Henan and Jiangsu) and Northeast China (Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia) and contributed to over half of the total GHG emissions. Meanwhile, Xinjiang, Qinghai and Tibet are shown as carbon sink areas. It was found that food-system GHG emissions could be reduced to 355 Tg CO₂-eq, where enhancing endpoint mitigation technologies, transforming social-economic and diet conditions, and increasing agricultural productivities can contribute to 60%, 25% and 15%, respectively. Synergistic mitigation effects were found to exist in agricultural activities.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

greenhouse gas emissions / food system / life cycle assessment / environmental input-output analysis / mitigation strategies

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Supplementary materials

The online version of this article at https://doi.org/10.15302/J-FASE-2023494 contains supplementary materials (Fig. S1; Tables S1–S2).

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (31872403), the Foundation for Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (2019101), the UNCNET—a project funded under the JPI Urban Europe/China collaboration, project numbers 71961137011 (NSFC, China) and 870234 (FFG, Austria), and the FABLE Consortium. We also thank the FABLE Consortium and Food and Land Use Coalition for the guidance of designing scenarios and are grateful for the financial support of the Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment.

Compliance with ethics guidelines

Xinpeng Jin, Xiangwen Fan, Yuanchao Hu, Zhaohai Bai, and Lin Ma declare that they have no conflicts of interest or financial conflicts to disclose. This article does not contain any studies with human or animal subjects performed by any of the authors.

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The Author(s) 2023. Published by Higher Education Press. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)