System dynamics approach to urban water demand forecasting

Abstract

A system dynamics approach to urban water demand forecasting was developed based on the analysis of urban water resources system, which was characterized by multi-feedback and nonlinear interactions among system elements. As an example, Tianjin water resources system dynamic model was set up to forecast water resources demand of the planning years. The practical verification showed that the relative error was lower than 10%. Furthermore, through the comparison and analysis of the simulation results under different development modes presented in this paper, the forecasting results of the water resources demand of Tianjin was achieved based on sustainable utilization strategy of water resources.

Keywords

system dynamics / water resources demand forecasting / nonlinearity

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