Uncovering the germanium sustainability up to 2050 in China

Highlights

	● Germanium has undergone profound metamorphoses of its global market over decades.
	● China’s total domestic demand for germanium will reach 164–187 t in 2050.
	● A shortage crisis of germanium is likely to occur before 2040.
	● Recycling from germanium waste potentially meets about 30% of demand.

Abstract

Germanium, a critical yet often overlooked metal, has experienced significant shifts in its global market, largely driven by China’s dominant role. However, concerns are growing over the sustainability of germanium supply in China due to imbalances in mining, manufacturing, recycling, and rising demand. In this study, we employ substance flow analysis to provide a quantitative assessment of China’s germanium flow system in 2019, and we project future demand and anthropogenic mineral generation up to 2050 using stock-driven models. Our results indicate that by 2050, domestic demand for germanium will increase to 164–187 t—double the demand in 2019—with infrared optics and solar cells being the primary drivers. A supply shortage is anticipated before 2040, although recycling through urban mining could meet around 30% of the demand. These findings underscore the urgent need to address emerging supply challenges and offer critical insights for policymakers and stakeholders to inform strategic decision-making.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

Critical metal / Germanium / Substance flow analysis / Recycling / Sustainability

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Acknowledgements

The work was financially supported by the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (No. 92062111) and the National Key Technology R&D Program of China (No. 2019YFC1908501). We also appreciate Dr. Moisés Gómez for the improvement on the language.

Conflict Interests

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Electronic Supplementary Material

Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at https://doi.org/10.1007/s11783-025-1945-3 and is accessible for authorized users.

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