Uncovering the evolution of tin use in the United States and its implications

Abstract

• US tin use decreases as the GDP value added by manufacturing sector increases.

• Global and China’s tin use increases as the GDP added by manufacturing increases.

• A sigmoid curve can fit the US tin use data well.

• US tin use patterns is not due to the finite tin reserves or resources.

• Policies, substitutions, etc. play key roles in the changing tin use patterns.

Tin is of key importance to daily life and national security; it is considered an essential industrial metal. The United States (US) is the world’s largest economy and consumer of natural resources. Therefore, the analysis of historical tin use in the US is helpful for understanding future tin use trends in the world as a whole and in developing countries. Time series analysis, regression analysis with GDP or GDP/capita, and historical data fitted with logistic and Gompertz models are employed in this study. Historical tin use in the US shows three stages—increase-constant-decrease, as GDP per capita has increased. Tin use in the US is negatively correlated with the GDP value added by the manufacturing sector, while the use of tin worldwide and in China continues to increase along with the GDP value added by the manufacturing sector. Although a sigmoid curve can fit the US tin use data well, that use is not directly related to the limited tin reserves or resources. Rather, policies, economic restructuring, substitutions, new end-use markets, etc. have played key roles in the changing tin use patterns. This work contributes to understanding future tin use at both the global and national levels: tin use will continue to increase with GDP at the global level, but use patterns of tin at the national level can be changed through human intervention.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

Tin use / GDP / Curve fitting / Logistic model / Gompertz model

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