Impacts of emissions and meteorological changes on China’s ozone pollution in the warm seasons of 2013 and 2017

Highlights

O₃ increment is mainly caused by changes in meteorology rather than emissions.

Emission reduction is effective to reduce O₃ nationwide, especially in summer.

Strengthened NO_x controls are necessary to meet the ambient O₃ standard.

Abstract

We have quantified the impacts of anthropogenic emissions reductions caused by the Air Pollution Control Action Plan and changes in meteorological fields between 2013 and 2017 on the warm-season O₃ concentration in China using a regional 3D chemical transport model. We found that the impact on daily maximum eight-hour (MDA8) O₃ concentration by the meteorological variation that mostly increased O₃ was greater than that from emission reduction, which decreased O₃. Specifically, the control measures implemented since 2013 in China have reduced SO₂, NO_x, PM_2.5, and VOC emissions by 33%, 25%, 30%, and 4% in 2017, while NH₃ emissions have increased by 7%. The changes in anthropogenic emissions lowered MDA8 O₃ by 0.4–3.7 ppb (0.8%–7.6%, varying by region and month), although MDA8 O₃ was increased slightly in some urban areas (i.e. North China) at the beginning/end of warm seasons. Relative to 2013, the average 2 m temperature in 2017 shows increments in North, North-east, East, and South China (0.34℃–0.83℃) and decreases in Central China (0.24℃). The average solar radiation shows increments in North, North-east, and South China (7.0–9.7 w/m²) and decreases in Central, South-west, and North-west China (4.7–10.3 w/m²). The meteorological differences significantly change MDA8 O₃ by -3.5–8.5 ppb (-8.2%–18.8%) with large temporal variations. The average MDA8 O₃ was slightly increased in North, North-east, East, and South China. The response surface model suggests that the O₃ formation regime transfers from NO_x-saturated in April to NO_x-limited in July on average in China.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

O₃ pollution / Meteorological influences / Emission reduction / NO_x / VOC

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported in part by National Key R&D program of China (Nos. 2017YFC0210006 and 2018YFC0213800), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 21625701 and 51861135102), and National Research Program for Key Issues in Air Pollution Control (Nos. DQGG0301 and DQGG0305). This work was completed on the “Explorer 100” cluster system of Tsinghua National Laboratory for Information Science and Technology.

Electronic Supplementary Material

Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at https://doi.org/10.1007/s11783-019-1160-1 and is accessible for authorized users.

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