Analysis of driving forces behind diversified carbon dioxide emission patterns in regions of the mainland of China

Abstract

China has large regional disparities in carbon dioxide CO₂ emissions with economic development among its 31 provincial mainland regions. This paper investigates these disparities in CO₂ emission patterns and identifies the factors underlying the differences. Results show that the 30 study China's mainland provinces (Tibet not included) can be divided into seven groups with three typical CO₂ emission patterns. Index decomposition results indicate that changes in economic development, the industrial sector, and technology contribute far more to increased CO₂ emissions than do population, energy structure, and other sectors. Close inspection reveals that different industry structures and technology contribute greatly to the differences observed in CO₂ emissions between provinces with similar economic output. This study highlights the importance of region-specific industrial structure adjustment policies, especially for regions transitioning to heavy industry and for those still in the primary stages of industrialization. The potential application of a domestic carbon emissions trading system, to encourage regional investment in updated technology, is also discussed.

Keywords

carbon dioxide emission patterns / China / economic development / index decomposition analysis / industrialization

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments. This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology development Fund (S-6, E-0806) of the Ministry of the Environment, KAKENHI (21612005, 20330050) Japan and the Nagoya University Global COE (Center of Excellence) Program “From Earth System Science to Basic and Clinical Environmental Studies” (GCOE-BCES) of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) of Japan.

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