New Understanding of the Progressive Failure Process of the 2018 Baige Landslide, Tibet, China: A Role of Intermittent Rainfall

Abstract

On October 11 and November 3 2018, two successive large-scale landslides occurred at Baige Village, eastern Tibet, China, damming the Jinsha River and causing severe downstream hazards. Despite their catastrophic impact, the progressive failure process of the Baige Landslide has remained poorly understood. In this study, we integrate field investigations, rainfall-step creep experiments, and numerical simulations to clarify the role of intermittent rainfall in slope weakening and failure. Structural mapping shows that faults traversing the northern, rear, and southern margins of the slope promoted dense jointing and fracturing in gneiss and serpentine, providing the fundamental geological basis for long-term instability. Laboratory results demonstrate that intermittent rainfall drives a stepwise deformation process, alternating between episodic acceleration during rainfall and creep stabilization afterward. Rainfall influences slope behavior through both short-term triggering—via increased water content and fracture water pressure—and long-term degradation, expressed as water-rock interactions that progressively reduce frictional resistance and strength. Numerical modeling further reveals that the progressive failure of the Baige Landslide was controlled by the interplay of structural predisposition, intermittent rainfall triggering, and long-term weakening, ultimately leading to large-scale collapse. These findings highlight the critical importance of incorporating historical damage and rainfall-induced degradation into slope stability assessments, particularly in tectonically active and rainfall-prone regions.

Keywords

Baige Landslide / geological structure / intermittent rainfall / landslides / disasters

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