Perpetuation of the “Evaporation Paradox” in the Arid and Semi-Arid Regions of Northern China since the Last Deglaciation

Abstract

Variations in potential evapotranspiration (PET) are closely linked to regional water equilibria and agricultural productivity. Amid the backdrop of ongoing global warming, PET within the arid and semi-arid regions of northern China (ASARNC), notable for its fragile ecological conditions, exhibits non-monotonic fluctuations. In this study, we selected Dali Lake, a hydrologically closed-lake situated in the ASARNC, as the research object. We calculated Δ δ¹⁸O_L-P based on δ¹⁸O_Carb records (indicative of δ¹⁸O_L) and stalagmite δ¹⁸O records (as a proxy for δ¹⁸O_P) to reconstruct PET changes since the last deglaciation. The findings indicate a gradual decline in PET from ∼14 000 cal yr before the present (BP), with PET reaching its minimum around 6 000 cal yr BP. Subsequently, PET exhibited a gradual increase. Moreover, we unveiled an inverse relationship between PET and temperature fluctuations in the ASARNC, suggesting the perpetuation of the evaporation paradox in the region since the last deglaciation. On a millennial timescale, variations in solar radiation (or global dimming) due to changes in cloud or aerosols concentrations, along with shifts in summer wind speed and humidity, rather than surface temperature fluctuations, may primarily drive changes in PET.

Keywords

evaporation paradox / lake sediment / Northern China / oxygen isotope / last deglaciation / geochemistry / environment geology

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