Identification of the Non-stationarity of Extreme Temperature Events and Teleconnections with Solar Activity and Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation: A Case Study in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Abstract

In recent decades, extreme climate events have become a major problem worldwide. To understand the uncertainty in the response of extreme events to global warming, regional assessments are required for various climatic and geographic regions. The spatiotemporal distribution of extreme temperature events in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) from 1960 to 2019, including interannual changes and their teleconnections with solar activity and large-scale atmospheric circulation, were analyzed using eight indices of extreme temperature events. Over the past six decades, the climate in the YREB region has seen a warming trend, characterized by an increase in extreme warm events and a decrease in extreme cold events. The extreme temperature indices exhibit strong spatial variability. The warm extremes display a significant upward trend across the YREB, while cold extremes are primarily concentrated in the western part of the region. In recent decades, both warm and cold extremes have significant interannual variations, and these events predominantly oscillate over periods of less than four years. After 1985, the relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and extreme temperature events has changed significantly compared with pre-1985, and the direction of the phase angle can determine the positive and negative effects of the two time series. The ENSO, AO, and PDO mainly have positive impacts on extreme temperature events, with ENSO and AO exerting greater impacts than PDO. In contrast, solar activity mainly has a negative impact on these events. Furthermore, the notable interdecadal changes in extreme temperature events, especially warm extremes, may be caused by the shift in the PDO phase. Therefore, the results of the study are important for the YREB region to take effective measures to mitigate the potential impacts of human activities on regional warming.

Keywords

extreme temperature events / Yangtze River Economic Belt / climate changes / solar activity / large-scale atmospheric circulation / environmental geology

References

[1] Agarwal A, Maheswaran R, Sehgal V, et al. Hydrologic Regionalization Using Wavelet-Based Multiscale Entropy Method. Journal of Hydrology, 2016, 538: 22-32.

[2] Aguilar E, Peterson T C, Ramirez Obando P, et al. Changes in Precipitation and Temperature Extremes in Central America and Northern South America, 1961–2003. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2005, 110D23D23107.

[3] Barnes E A, Polvani L. Response of the Midlatitude Jets, and of Their Variability, to Increased Greenhouse Gases in the CMIP5 Models. Journal of Climate, 2013, 261871177135.

[4] Bernhard G H, Bais A F, Aucamp P J, et al. Stratospheric Ozone, UV Radiation, and Climate Interactions. Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences, 2023, 225937989.

[5] Brabson B B, Palutikof J P. The Evolution of Extreme Temperatures in the Central England Temperature Record. Geophysical Research Letters, 2002, 292414.

[6] Cavalcanti I F A. Large Scale and Synoptic Features Associated with Extreme Precipitation over South America: A Review and Case Studies for the First Decade of the 21st Century. Atmospheric Research, 2012, 118: 27-40.

[7] Chen D S, Zhao Q Q, Jiang P H, et al. Incorporating Ecosystem Services to Assess Progress towards Sustainable Development Goals: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China. Science of the Total Environment, 2022, 806: 151277.

[8] Chen Z H, Grasby S E, Osadetz K G. Predicting Average Annual Groundwater Levels from Climatic Variables: An Empirical Model. Journal of Hydrology, 2002, 2601/2/3/4102117.

[9] Christidis N, Stott P A, Zwiers F W. Fast-Track Attribution Assessments Based on Pre-Computed Estimates of Changes in the Odds of Warm Extremes. Climate Dynamics, 2015, 455/615471564.

[10] Das J, Jha S, Goyal M K. On the Relationship of Climatic and Monsoon Teleconnections with Monthly Precipitation over Meteorologically Homogenous Regions in India: Wavelet & Global Coherence Approaches. Atmospheric Research, 2020, 238: 104889.

[11] Diffenbaugh N S, Singh D, Mankin J S, et al. Quantifying the Influence of Global Warming on Unprecedented Extreme Climate Events. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017, 1141948814886.

[12] Ding Z Y, Pu J, Meng L H, et al. Asymmetric Trends of Extreme Temperature over the Loess Plateau during 1998–2018. International Journal of Climatology, 2021, 41S1E1663E1685.

[13] Dong H X, Huang S Z, Wang H, et al. Effects of Interaction of Multiple Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulations on Precipitation Dynamics in China. Science of the Total Environment, 2024, 923: 171528.

[14] Dong L Y, Fu C S, Liu J G, et al. Combined Effects of Solar Activity and El Niño on Hydrologic Patterns in the Yoshino River Basin, Japan. Water Resources Management, 2018, 32724212435.

[15] Farneti R, Vallis G K. Mechanisms of Interdecadal Climate Variability and the Role of Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling. Climate Dynamics, 2011, 361/2289308.

[16] Frank D, Reichstein M, Bahn M, et al. Effects of Climate Extremes on the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle: Concepts, Processes and Potential Future Impacts. Global Change Biology, 2015, 21828612880.

[17] Freitas A, Bernardino M, Soares C G. The Influence of the Arctic Oscillation on North Atlantic Wind and Wave Climate by the End of the 21st Century. Ocean Engineering, 2022, 246: 110634.

[18] Fu C S, James A L, Wachowiak M P. Analyzing the Combined Influence of Solar Activity and El Niño on Streamflow across Southern Canada. Water Resources Research, 2012, 4852011WR011507.

[19] Fu C S, Yao H X. Trends of Ice Breakup Date in South-Central Ontario. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2015, 1201892209236.

[20] Gao H, Washington R. The Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of TOMS AI over the Tarim Basin, China. Atmospheric Environment, 2009, 43511061115.

[21] Gao S H, Huang S Z, Guo H, et al. Land Quality Degradation Exacerbates the Impact of Drought on Vegetation in Northeast China. Ecological Indicators, 2025, 181: 114447.

[22] Garcia-Villada L P, Donat M G, Angélil O, et al. Temperature and Precipitation Responses to El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a Hierarchy of Datasets with Different Levels of Observational Constraints. Climate Dynamics, 2020, 559/1023512376.

[23] Grimm N B, Chapin F SIIIBierwagen B, et al. The Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystem Structure and Function. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2013, 119474482.

[24] Grinsted A, Moore J C, Jevrejeva S. Application of the Cross Wavelet Transform and Wavelet Coherence to Geophysical Time Series. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 2004, 115/6561566.

[25] Guan Y H, Zhang X C, Zheng F L, et al. Trends and Variability of Daily Temperature Extremes during 1960–2012 in the Yangtze River Basin, China. Global and Planetary Change, 2015, 124: 79-94.

[26] Guo E L, Zhang J Q, Wang Y F, et al. Spatiotemporal Variations of Extreme Climate Events in Northeast China during 1960–2014. Ecological Indicators, 2019, 96: 669-683.

[27] Hao Y H, Zhang J, Wang J J, et al. How does the Anthropogenic Activity Affect the Spring Discharge. Journal of Hydrology, 2016, 540: 1053-1065.

[28] Hao Z C, Hao F H, Singh V P, et al. Changes in the Severity of Compound Drought and Hot Extremes over Global Land Areas. Environmental Research Letters, 2018, 1312124022.

[29] Henderson R D, Day-Lewis F D, Harvey C F. Investigation of Aquifer-Estuary Interaction Using Wavelet Analysis of Fiber-Optic Temperature Data. Geophysical Research Letters, 2009, 366L06403.

[30] Holman I P, Rivas-Casado M, Bloomfield J P, et al. Identifying Non-Stationary Groundwater Level Response to North Atlantic Ocean-Atmosphere Teleconnection Patterns Using Wavelet Coherence. Hydrogeology Journal, 2011, 19612691278.

[31] Horton D E, Johnson N C, Singh D, et al. Contribution of Changes in Atmospheric Circulation Patterns to Extreme Temperature Trends. Nature, 2015, 5227557465469.

[32] Hu K M, Huang G, Xie S P. Assessing the Internal Variability in Multi-Decadal Trends of Summer Surface Air Temperature over East Asia with a Large Ensemble of GCM Simulations. Climate Dynamics, 2019, 529/1062296242.

[33] Huang S Z, Zheng X D, Ma L, et al. Quantitative Contribution of Climate Change and Human Activities to Vegetation Cover Variations Based on GA-SVM Model. Journal of Hydrology, 2020, 584: 124687.

[34] Huo X L, Lei L Y, Liu Z F, et al. Application of Wavelet Coherence Method to Investigate Karst Spring Discharge Response to Climate Teleconnection Patterns. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2016, 52612811296.

[35] Huo X L, Liu Z F, Duan Q Y, et al. Linkages between Large-Scale Climate Patterns and Karst Spring Discharge in Northern China. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2016, 172713724.

[36] Iyakaremye V, Zeng G, Zhang G W. Changes in Extreme Temperature Events over Africa under 1.5 and 2.0 °C Global Warming Scenarios. International Journal of Climatology, 2021, 41215061524.

[37] Jia W X, He Y Q, Li Z X, et al. The Regional Difference and Catastrophe of Climatic Change in Qilian Mt. Region. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2008, 633257269(in Chinese with English Abstract)

[38] Kendall M G, Gibbons J D. Rank Correlation Methods, 19754th editionLondonCharles Griffin

[39] Kenyon J, Hegerl G C. Influence of Modes of Climate Variability on Global Precipitation Extremes. Journal of Climate, 2010, 232362486262.

[40] Kumar S, Kinter J LIIIPan Z T, et al. Twentieth Century Temperature Trends in CMIP3, CMIP5, and CESM-LE Climate Simulations: Spatial-Temporal Uncertainties, Differences, and Their Potential Sources. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2016, 1211695619575.

[41] Li D W, Yuan J C, Kopp R E. Escalating Global Exposure to Compound Heat-Humidity Extremes with Warming. Environmental Research Letters, 2020, 156064003.

[42] Li Z X, He Y Q, Wang C F, et al. Spatial and Temporal Trends of Temperature and Precipitation during 1960–2008 at the Hengduan Mountains, China. Quaternary International, 2011, 2361/2127142.

[43] Liu D D, Bai L, Li X Y, et al. Spatial Characteristics and Driving Forces of Anthropogenic Phosphorus Emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2022, 176: 105937.

[44] Liu S Y, Huang S Z, Huang Q, et al. Identification of the Non-Stationarity of Extreme Precipitation Events and Correlations with Large-Scale Ocean-Atmospheric Circulation Patterns: A Case Study in the Wei River Basin, China. Journal of Hydrology, 2017, 548: 184-195.

[45] Liu Y, Wang H J, Chen H P, et al. Anthropogenic Forcing and Pacific Internal Variability-Determined Decadal Increase in Summer Precipitation over the Asian Water Tower. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2023, 6: 38.

[46] Liu Y, Yu S, Chen H P. Contribution of PDO to Decadal Variations of Glaze Dipole Pattern in China. Journal of Climate, 2023, 361032613274.

[47] Mann H B. Nonparametric Tests Against Trend. Econometrica, 1945, 133245.

[48] Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani S, et al. IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2021, Cambridge, New York, NY: Cambridge University Press

[49] Mutiibwa D, Vavrus S J, McAfee S A, et al. Recent Spatiotemporal Patterns in Temperature Extremes across Conterminous United States. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2015, 1201573787392.

[50] Nalley D, Adamowski J, Khalil B, et al. Inter-Annual to Inter-Decadal Streamflow Variability in Quebec and Ontario in Relation to Dominant Large-Scale Climate Indices. Journal of Hydrology, 2016, 536: 426-446.

[51] Nourani V, Ghasemzade M, Mehr A D, et al. Investigating the Effect of Hydroclimatological Variables on Urmia Lake Water Level Using Wavelet Coherence Measure. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 2019, 1011329.

[52] Pan S F, Yin Z C, Duan M K, et al. Seasonal Prediction of Extreme High-Temperature Days over the Yangtze River Basin. Science China Earth Sciences, 2024, 67721372147.

[53] Patz J A, Campbell-Lendrum D, Holloway T, et al. Impact of Regional Climate Change on Human Health. Nature, 2005, 4387066310317.

[54] Qiu H J, Liu Y, Tang B Z, et al. More Catastrophic Flow Events may Follow the Chamoli Rock and Ice Avalanche under Climate Change. Journal of Earth Science, 2024, 35413821384.

[55] Qu S, Wang L C, Lin A W, et al. What Drives the Vegetation Restoration in Yangtze River Basin, China: Climate Change or Anthropogenic Factors?. Ecological Indicators, 2018, 90: 438-450.

[56] Rashid M M, Beecham S, Chowdhury R K. Assessment of Trends in Point Rainfall Using Continuous Wavelet Transforms. Advances in Water Resources, 2015, 82: 1-15.

[57] Rosenzweig C, Hillel D. Climate Variability and the Global Harvest: Impacts of El Niño and Other Oscillations on Agro-Ecosystems, 2008, Oxford: Oxford University Press

[58] Sauter C, Fowler H J, Westra S, et al. Compound Extreme Hourly Rainfall Preconditioned by Heatwaves Most Likely in the Mid-Latitudes. Weather and Climate Extremes, 2023, 40: 100563.

[59] Sen P K. Estimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall’s Tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1968, 6332413791389.

[60] Shi D L, Li J, Li Q H. Convective and Environmental Characteristics of Tropical Cyclone Genesis-Rapid Intensification Compound Events in the Western North Pacific. Earth Science, 2025, 50933823394(in Chinese with English Abstract)

[61] Shindell D T, Levy HIISchwarzkopf M D, et al. Multimodel Projections of Climate Change from Short-Lived Emissions due to Human Activities. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2008, 113D112007JD009152.

[62] Si J J, Zhang L, Zhang S Z, et al. Response of Air Pollution to Meteorological Conditions and Socioeconomic Activities Associated to the COVID-19 Outbreak in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Atmospheric Environment, 2024, 323: 120390.

[63] Soon W, Connolly R, Connolly M. Re-evaluating the Role of Solar Variability on Northern Hemisphere Temperature Trends since the 19th Century. Earth-Science Reviews, 2015, 150: 409-452.

[64] Stendel M, Francis J, White R, et al. The Jet Stream and Climate Change. Climate Change, 2021, Amsterdam: Elsevier, 327-357.

[65] Sun W Y, Mu X M, Song X Y, et al. Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Events in the Loess Plateau (China) during 1960 -2013 under Global Warming. Atmospheric Research, 2016, 168: 33-48.

[66] Sung M K, Jang H Y, Kim B M, et al. Tropical Influence on the North Pacific Oscillation Drives Winter Extremes in North America. Nature Climate Change, 2019, 95413418.

[67] Tang X G, Wang L J, Wang H Y, et al. Predicted Climate Change will Increase Landslide Risk in Hanjiang River Basin, China. Journal of Earth Science, 2024, 35413341354.

[68] Tao H, Gemmer M, Bai Y G, et al. Trends of Streamflow in the Tarim River Basin during the Past 50 Years: Human Impact or Climate Change. Journal of Hydrology, 2011, 4001/219.

[69] Tegegne G, Melesse A M, Worqlul A W. Development of Multi-Model Ensemble Approach for Enhanced Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Climate Extremes. Science of the Total Environment, 2020, 704: 135357.

[70] Torrence C, Compo G P. A Practical Guide to Wavelet Analysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1998, 7916178.

[71] Torrence C, Webster P J. Interdecadal Changes in the ENSO-Monsoon System. Journal of Climate, 1999, 12826792690.

[72] van Wilgen N J, Goodall V, Holness S, et al. Rising Temperatures and Changing Rainfall Patterns in South Africa’s National Parks. International Journal of Climatology, 2016, 362706721.

[73] Vincent L A, Aguilar E, Saindou M, et al. Observed Trends in Indices of Daily and Extreme Temperature and Precipitation for the Countries of the Western Indian Ocean, 1961–2008. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2011, 116D10D10108.

[74] Wagner D. Assessment of the Probability of Extreme Weather Events and Their Potential Effects in Large Conurbations. Atmospheric Environment, 1999, 3324/2541514155.

[75] Walsh J E, Ballinger T J, Euskirchen E S, et al. Extreme Weather and Climate Events in Northern Areas: A Review. Earth-Science Reviews, 2020, 209: 103324.

[76] Wang L/Y, Guo S L, Tan X, et al. Characteristics of Large-Scale Drought and Flood Alternation in Autumn in the Yangtze River Basin and Associated Weather Situation Alternation. Earth Science, 2025, 50934083421(in Chinese with English Abstract)

[77] Wang X Y, Li Y Q, Wang M M, et al. Changes in Daily Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Events in Mainland China from 1960 to 2016 under Global Warming. International Journal of Climatology, 2021, 41214651483.

[78] Wang Y M, Li S L, Luo D H. Seasonal Response of Asian Monsoonal Climate to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2009, 114D22008JD010929.

[79] Weng H Y. Impacts of Multi-Scale Solar Activity on Climate. Part I: Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Climate Extremes. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2012, 294867886.

[80] Wu X J, Liu J K, Niu Z G, et al. Projection of Population Exposure to Compound Extreme Climate Events in the Yangtze River Basin. Journal of Earth Science, 2025, 36627712788.

[81] Wu Y, Zhang L, Zhang Z X, et al. Influence of Solar Activity and Large-Scale Climate Phenomena on Extreme Precipitation Events in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2024, 381211231.

[82] Wu Y L, Zhong Y L, Liu S L, et al. Hydrogeodesy Facilitates the Accurate Assessment of Extreme Drought Events. Journal of Earth Science, 2025, 361347350.

[83] Xi Y, Miao C Y, Wu J W, et al. Spatiotemporal Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Events in the Three-Rivers Headwater Region, China. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2018, 1231158275844.

[84] Xu Y, Wu Y F, Zhang X, et al. Contributions of Climate Change to Eco-Compensation Identification in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China. Ecological Indicators, 2021, 133: 108425.

[85] Xu Z Q, Fan K, Wang H J. Decadal Variation of Summer Precipitation over China and Associated Atmospheric Circulation after the Late 1990s. Journal of Climate, 2015, 281040864106.

[86] Yang Y M, Park J H, An S I, et al. Mean Sea Surface Temperature Changes Influence ENSO-Related Precipitation Changes in the Mid-Latitudes. Nature Communications, 2021, 12: 1495.

[87] Yoro K O, Daramola M O. CO₂ Emission Sources, Greenhouse Gases, and the Global Warming Effect. Advances in Carbon Capture, 2020, Amsterdam: Elsevier, 3-28.

[88] Yue S R, Wang L C, Cao Q X, et al. Vegetation Dynamics and Potential Factors Driving Mechanisms in the Tarim River Basin. Earth Science, 2024, 49933993410(in Chinese with English Abstract)

[89] Zaitchik B F, Rodell M, Biasutti M, et al. Wetting and Drying Trends under Climate Change. Nature Water, 2023, 16502513.

[90] Zhang J H, Zhang Y L, Sun G, et al. Climate Variability Masked Greening Effects on Water Yield in the Yangtze River Basin during 2001–2018. Water Resources Research, 2022, 58: e2021WR030382.

[91] Zhang L, Liu Y F, Jin M G, et al. Spatiotemporal Variability in Extreme Temperature Events in an Arid-Semiarid Region of China and Their Teleconnections with Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation. Journal of Earth Science, 2023, 34412011217.

[92] Zhang L, Liu Y F, Jin M G, et al. Influence of Seasonal Water-Level Fluctuations on Depth-Dependent Microbial Nitrogen Transformation and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in the Riparian Zone. Journal of Hydrology, 2023, 622: 129676.

[93] Zhang L, Liu Y F, Zhan H B, et al. Influence of Solar Activity and EI Niño-Southern Oscillation on Precipitation Extremes, Streamflow Variability and Flooding Events in an Arid-Semiarid Region of China. Journal of Hydrology, 2021, 601: 126630.

[94] Zhang L, Wang H L, Liu X H, et al. Denitrification Dominates Nitrate Attenuation and Nitrous Oxide Effluxes under Water Table Fluctuations. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2025, 493: 138325.

[95] Zhang L, Zheng T Y, Guo B, et al. Impacts of River Stage Fluctuations on River Corridor Nitrous Oxide Source and Sink Dynamics. Water Research, 2026, 295: 125574.

[96] Zhang Z X, Zhang L, Liu Y F, et al. Responses of Annual Streamflow Variability to Annual Precipitation, Extreme Climate Events and Large-Scale Climate Phenomena in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Journal of Hydrology, 2024, 632: 130969.

[97] Zhao G S, Pu Z G, Huang Q B, et al. A Review of Influence of Warming and Precipitation Changes on Soil CO₂ Release. Earth Science, 2024, 491246084621(in Chinese with English Abstract)

[98] Zhou K, Wu J X, Liu H C. Spatiotemporal Variations and Determinants of Water Pollutant Discharge in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China: A Spatial Econometric Analysis. Environmental Pollution, 2021, 271: 116320.

[99] Zhou Z X, Nguyen-Xuan T, Liao H, et al. Characterization of Temperature and Humidity Effects on Extreme Heat Stress under Global Warming and Urban Growth in the Pearl and Yangtze River Deltas of China. Weather and Climate Extremes, 2024, 44: 100659.

Rights & permissions

China University of Geosciences (Wuhan) and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, Part of Springer Nature