Quick Prediction of Earthquake Ground Shaking Intensity Using High-Rate GNSS: A Case Study of the 2021 Mw 7.3 Maduo Earthquake

Abstract

Seismic intensity is critical for post-earthquake hazard assessment and response, but is often delayed because field surveys are required. Here, we propose a simple scheme for quick prediction of earthquake ground shaking intensity using high-rate Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data. In the scheme, high-rate GNSS displacement waveforms and static GNSS coseismic offsets are first used to invert the fault rupture process based on a one-fault model. The kinematic slip model is then employed as input for kinematic forward simulation to predict strong ground motion, which is subsequently convert into seismic intensities according to the China seismic intensity scale (GB/T 17742–2020). We take the 2021 Mw 7.3 Maduo Earthquake as a case study to illustrate the feasibility of this scheme. Our results show that the seismic intensity produced by the one-fault model is consistent with that from field investigations, especially in meizoseismal zones, suggesting that the scheme may serve as a potential solution for quick prediction of seismic intensity, which helps to disaster relief efforts after strong earthquakes.

Keywords

high-rate GNSS / quick prediction of surface intensity / Maduo Earthquake / kinematic rupture process

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