A Quantitative Seismic Topographic Effect Prediction Method Based upon BP Neural Network Algorithm and FEM Simulation

Abstract

Topography can strongly affect ground motion, and studies of the quantification of hill surfaces’ topographic effect are relatively rare. In this paper, a new quantitative seismic topographic effect prediction method based upon the BP neural network algorithm and three-dimensional finite element method (FEM) was developed. The FEM simulation results were compared with seismic records and the results show that the PGA and response spectra have a tendency to increase with increasing elevation, but the correlation between PGA amplification factors and slope is not obvious for low hills. New BP neural network models were established for the prediction of amplification factors of PGA and response spectra. Two kinds of input variables’ combinations which are convenient to achieve are proposed in this paper for the prediction of amplification factors of PGA and response spectra, respectively. The absolute values of prediction errors can be mostly within 0.1 for PGA amplification factors, and they can be mostly within 0.2 for response spectra’s amplification factors. One input variables’ combination can achieve better prediction performance while the other one has better expandability of the predictive region. Particularly, the BP models only employ one hidden layer with about a hundred nodes, which makes it efficient for training.

Keywords

seismic topographic effect / finite element method / BP neural network algorithm / earthquake disaster prevention

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