Predicted Climate Change will Increase Landslide Risk in Hanjiang River Basin, China

Abstract

Landslides are widespread geomorphological phenomena with complex mechanisms that have caused extensive causalities and property damage worldwide. The scale and frequency of landslides are presently increasing owing to the warming effects of climate change, which further increases the associated safety risks. In this study, the relationship between historical landslides and environmental variables in the Hanjiang River Basin was determined and an optimized model was used to constrain the relative contribution of variables and best spatial response curve. The optimal MaxEnt model was used to predict the current distribution of landslides and influence of future rainfall changes on the landslide susceptibility. The results indicate that environmental variables in the study area statistically correlate with landslide events over the past 20 years. The MaxEnt model evaluation was applied to landslide hazards in the Hanjiang River Basin based on current climate change scenarios. The results indicate that 25.9% of the study area is classified as a high-risk area. The main environmental variables that affect the distribution of landslides include altitude, slope, normalized difference vegetation index, annual precipitation, distance from rivers, and distance from roads, with a cumulative contribution rate of approximately 90%. The annual rainfall in the Hanjiang River Basin will continue to increase under future climate warming scenarios. Increased rainfall will further increase the extent of high- and medium-risk areas in the basin, especially when following the RCP8.5 climate prediction, which is expected to increase the high-risk area by 10.7% by 2070. Furthermore, high landslide risk areas in the basin will migrate to high-altitude areas in the future, which poses new challenges for the prevention and control of landslide risks. This study demonstrates the usefulness of the MaxEnt model as a tool for landslide susceptibility prediction in the Hanjiang River Basin caused by global warming and yields robust prediction results. This approach therefore provides an important reference for river basin management and disaster reduction and prevention. The study on landslide risks also supports the hypothesis that global climate change will further enhance the frequency and intensity of landslide activity throughout the course of the 21st Century.

Keywords

Hanjiang River Basin / climate change / environmental factor / landslide susceptibility assessment / MaxEnt model

References

Ahmed T, Singh D. Probability Density Functions Based Classification of MODIS NDVI Time Series Data and Monitoring of Vegetation Growth Cycle. Advances in Space Research, 2020, 66(4): 873-886

Arabameri A, Pradhan B, Rezaei K, . An Ensemble Model for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping in a Forested Area. Geocarto International, 2020, 35(15): 1680-1705

Aslam H M U, Butt A A, Shabir H, . Climatic Events and Natural Disasters of 21st Century: A Perspective of Pakistan. International Journal of Economic and Environmental Geology, 2020, 11(2): 46-54

Baeza C, Corominas J. Assessment of Shallow Landslide Susceptibility by Means of Multivariate Statistical Techniques. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 2001, 26(12): 1251-1263

Baeza S, Paruelo J M. Land Use/Land Cover Change (2000–2014) in the Rio de La Plata Grasslands: An Analysis Based on MODIS NDVI Time Series. Remote Sensing, 2020, 12(3): 381

Bai M Z, Du Y Q, Chen Y, . Risk Assessment of Long Gas and Oil Pipeline Projects Inducing Landslide Disasters during Construction. Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities, 2017, 31 5 170-186

Bajracharya D. Deforestation in the Food/Fuel Context: Historical and Political Perspectives from Nepal. Mountain Research and Development, 1983, 3(3): 227-240

Baldwin R. Use of Maximum Entropy Modeling in Wildlife Research. Entropy, 2009, 11(4): 854-866

Beaty C B. Landslides and Slope Exposure. The Journal of Geology, 1956, 64(1): 70-74

Borgogno-Mondino E, Lessio A, Gomarasca M A. A Fast Operative Method for NDVI Uncertainty Estimation and Its Role in Vegetation Analysis. European Journal of Remote Sensing, 2016, 49(1): 137-156

Buckman-Sewald J, Whorton C R, Root K V. Developing Macrohabitat Models for Bats in Parks Using Maxent and Testing them with Data Collected by Citizen Scientists. International Journal of Biodiversity and Conservation, 2014, 6(2): 171-183

Buma J. Finding the most Suitable Slope Stability Model for the Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on a -landslide in Southeast France. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 2000, 25(6): 565-582

Cascini L. Applicability of Landslide Susceptibility and Hazard Zoning at Different Scales. Engineering Geology, 2008, 102(3/4): 164-177

Cascini L, Calvello M, Grimaldi G M. Groundwater Modeling for the Analysis of Active Slow-Moving Landslides. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 2010, 136(9): 1220-1230

Chen C W, Tung Y S, Liou J J, . Assessing Landslide Characteristics in a Changing Climate in Northern Taiwan. Catena, 2019, 175: 263-277.

Chen S, Luo Z K, Pan X B. Natural Disasters in China: 1900–2011. Natural Hazards, 2013, 69(3): 1597-1605

Chen W, Pourghasemi H R, Kornejady A, . Landslide Spatial Modeling: Introducing New Ensembles of ANN, MaxEnt, and SVM Machine Learning Techniques. Geoderma, 2017, 305: 314-327.

Chen W, Pourghasemi H R, Naghibi S A. A Comparative Study of Landslide Susceptibility Maps Produced Using Support Vector Machine with Different Kernel Functions and Entropy Data Mining Models in China. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 2018, 77(2): 647-664.

Chen W, Sun Z H, Han J C. Landslide Susceptibility Modeling Using Integrated Ensemble Weights of Evidence with Logistic Regression and Random Forest Models. Applied Sciences, 2019, 9(1): 171-183

Chiu Y Y, Chen H E, Yeh K C. Investigation of the Influence of Rainfall Runoff on Shallow Landslides in Unsaturated Soil Using a Mathematical Model. Water, 2019, 11(6): 1178-1192

Ciabatta L, Camici S, Brocca L, . Assessing the Impact of Climate-Change Scenarios on Landslide Occurrence in Umbria Region, Italy. Journal of Hydrology, 2016, 541: 285-295.

Coe J A. Landslide Hazards and Climate Change: A Perspective from the United States. Slope Safety Preparedness for Impact of Climate Change, 2017, 1: 479-523.

Coe J, Godt J, Baum R, . Landslide Susceptibility from Topography in Guatemala. Landslides: Evaluation and Stabilization, 2004, 1: 69-78.

Collison A, Wade S, Griffiths J, . Modelling the Impact of Predicted Climate Change on Landslide Frequency and Magnitude in SE England. Engineering Geology, 2000, 55(3): 205-218

Convertino M, Troccoli A, Catani F. Detecting Fingerprints of Landslide Drivers: A MaxEnt Model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 2013, 118(3): 1367-1386

Coops N C, Waring R H, Moncrieff J B. Estimating Mean Monthly Incident Solar Radiation on Horizontal and Inclined Slopes from Mean Monthly Temperatures Extremes. International Journal of Biometeorology, 2000, 44(4): 204-211.

Corominas J, Moya J. Reconstructing Recent Landslide Activity in Relation to Rainfall in the Llobregat River Basin, Eastern Pyrenees, Spain. Geomorphology, 1999, 30(1/2): 79-93

Crawford B A, Maerz J C, Moore C T. Expert-Informed Habitat Suitability Analysis for At-Risk Species Assessment and Conservation Planning. Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management, 2020, 11(1): 130-150

Crozier M J. Landslide Geomorphology: An Argument for Recognition, with Examples from New Zealand. Geomorphology, 2010, 120(1/2): 3-15

Crozier M J. Deciphering the Effect of Climate Change on Landslide Activity: A Review. Geomorphology, 2010, 124(3/4): 260-267

Cui P, Zhu Y Y, Han Y S, . The 12 may Wenchuan Earthquake-Induced Landslide Lakes: Distribution and Preliminary Risk Evaluation. Landslides, 2009, 6(3): 209-223

Cui X F, Graf H F. Recent Land Cover Changes on the Tibetan Plateau: A Review. Climatic Change, 2009, 94(1/2): 47-61

Danjon F, Barker D H, Drexhage M, . Using Three-Dimensional Plant Root Architecture in Models of Shallow-Slope Stability. Annals of Botany, 2008, 101(8): 1281-1293

Debortoli N S, Camarinha P I M, Marengo J A, . An Index of Brazil’s Vulnerability to Expected Increases in Natural Flash Flooding and Landslide Disasters in the Context of Climate Change. Natural Hazards, 2017, 86(2): 557-582

Deng H, Wu L Z, Huang R Q, . Formation of the Siwanli Ancient Landslide in the Dadu River, China. Landslides, 2017, 14(1): 385-394

Di Napoli M, Carotenuto F, Cevasco A, . Machine Learning Ensemble Modelling as a Tool to Improve Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Reliability. Landslides, 2020, 17(8): 1897-1914

Diaz J H. Global Climate Changes, Natural Disasters, and Travel Health Risks. Journal of Travel Medicine, 2006, 13(6): 361-372

Dolidon N, Hofer T, Jansky L, . Watershed and Forest Management for Landslide Risk Reduction. Landslides-Disaster Risk Reduction, 2009, Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer, 633-649

Dore M H I. Climate Change and Changes in Global Precipitation Patterns: What do we Know?. Environment International, 2005, 31(8): 1167-1181

Du X D, Jin X B, Yang X L, . Spatial-Temporal Pattern Changes of Main Agriculture Natural Disasters in China during 1990–2011. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2015, 25(4): 387-398

Duan R Y, Kong X Q, Huang M Y, . The Predictive Performance and Stability of Six Species Distribution Models. PLoS One, 2014, 9(11): e112764

Dudik, M., Schapire, R. E., Phillips, S. J., 2005. Correcting Sample Selection Bias in Maximum Entropy Density Estimation. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems: 323–330

Duong L T. Natural Disasters and Policies to Confront: A Case Study of Vietnam. Global Warming and Climate Change, 2010, London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 159-171

Eriksson T, Dalerum F. Identifying Potential Areas for an Expanding Wolf Population in Sweden. Biological Conservation, 2018, 220: 170-181.

Felicisimo A M, Cuartero A, Remondo J, . Mapping Landslide Susceptibility with Logistic Regression, Multiple Adaptive Regression Splines, Classification and Regression Trees, and Maximum Entropy Methods: A Comparative Study. Landslides, 2013, 10(2): 175-189

Fick S E, Hijmans R J. WorldClim 2: New 1-Km Spatial Resolution Climate Surfaces for Global Land Areas. International Journal of Climatology, 2017, 37(12): 4302-4315

Freitas G H S, Costa L M, Silva P H V B P, . Spatial Ecology and Conservation of the Microendemic Ovenbird Cipo Cinclodes (Cinclodes Espinhacensis) from the Brazilian Highlands. Journal of Field Ornithology, 2019, 90(2): 128-142

Fustos I, Abarca-del-Rio R, Moreno-Yaeger P, . Rainfall-Induced Landslides Forecast Using Local Precipitation and Global Climate Indexes. Natural Hazards, 2020, 102(1): 115-131

Galve J P, Cevasco A, Brandolini P, . Assessment of Shallow Landslide Risk Mitigation Measures Based on Land Use Planning through Probabilistic Modelling. Landslides, 2015, 12(1): 101-114

Gao X C, Liu H L, Zhang W G, . Influences of Reservoir Water Level Drawdown on Slope Stability and Reliability Analysis. Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards, 2019, 13(2): 145-153.

García-Ruiz J M, Beguería S, Alatorre L C, . Land Cover Changes and Shallow Landsliding in the Flysch Sector of the Spanish Pyrenees. Geomorphology, 2010, 124(3/4): 250-259

Gariano S L, Rianna G, Petrucci O, . Assessing Future Changes in the Occurrence of Rainfall-Induced Landslides at a Regional Scale. Science of the Total Environment, 2017, 596/597: 417-426.

Gharari S, Hrachowitz M, Fenicia F, . Hydrological Landscape Classification: Investigating the Performance of HAND Based Landscape Classifications in a Central European Meso-Scale Catchment. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2011, 15(11): 3275-3291

Godefroid S. Temporal Analysis of the Brussels Flora as Indicator for Changing Environmental Quality. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2001, 52(4): 203-224

Goetz J N, Brenning A, Petschko H, . Evaluating Machine Learning and Statistical Prediction Techniques for Landslide Susceptibility Modeling. Computers & Geosciences, 2015, 81: 1-11.

González-Díez A, Remondo J, Díaz de Terán J R, . A Methodological Approach for the Analysis of the Temporal Occurrence and Triggering Factors of Landslides. Geomorphology, 1999, 30(1/2): 95-113

Gou X H, Zhang F, Deng Y, . Patterns and Dynamics of Tree-Line Response to Climate Change in the Eastern Qilian Mountains, Northwestern China. Dendrochronologia, 2012, 30(2): 121-126

Griffiths D V, Lu N. Unsaturated Slope Stability Analysis with Steady Infiltration or Evaporation Using Elasto-Plastic Finite Elements. International Journal for Numerical and Analytical Methods in Geomechanics, 2005, 29(3): 249-267

Guo Z Z, Yin K L, Gui L, . Regional Rainfall Warning System for Landslides with Creep Deformation in Three Gorges Using a Statistical Black Box Model. Scientific Reports, 2019, 9: 8962

Guzzetti F, Carrara A, Cardinali M, . Landslide Hazard Evaluation: A Review of Current Techniques and Their Application in a Multi-Scale Study, Central Italy. Geomorphology, 1999, 31(1/2/3/4): 181-216

Guzzetti F, Peruccacci S, Rossi M, . Rainfall Thresholds for the Initiation of Landslides in Central and Southern Europe. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 2007, 98(3/4): 239-267

Han W X, Liang C, Jiang B F, . Major Natural Disasters in China, 1985–2014: Occurrence and Damages. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2016, 13(11): 1118

Haque U, da Silva P F, Devoli G, . The Human Cost of Global Warming: Deadly Landslides and Their Triggers (1995–2014). Science of the Total Environment, 2019, 682 673-684.

Henriques C, Zêzere J L, Marques F. The Role of the Lithological Setting on the Landslide Pattern and Distribution. Engineering Geology, 2015, 189 17-31.

Howell K L, Holt R, Endrino I P, . When the Species is also a Habitat: Comparing the Predictively Modelled Distributions of Lophelia Pertusa and the Reef Habitat it Forms. Biological Conservation, 2011, 144(11): 2656-2665

Huang R Q, Li W L. Formation, Distribution and Risk Control of Landslides in China. Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, 2011, 3(2): 97-116

Huggel C, Clague J J, Korup O. Is Climate Change Responsible for Changing Landslide Activity in High Mountains?. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 2012, 37(1): 77-91

Hungr O, Leroueil S, Picarelli L. The Varnes Classification of Landslide Types, an Update. Landslides, 2014, 11(2): 167-194

Iturbide M, Gutiérrez J M, Alves L M, . An Update of IPCC Climate Reference Regions for Subcontinental Analysis of Climate Model Data: Definition and Aggregated Datasets. Earth System Science Data, 2020, 12(4): 2959-2970

Jamalinia E, Vardon P J, Steele-Dunne S C. The Impact of Evaporation Induced Cracks and Precipitation on Temporal Slope Stability. Computers and Geotechnics, 2020, 122: 103506

Jenness J. DEM Surface Tools v. 2.1.292, 2011

Jiang Z H, Song J, Li L, . Extreme Climate Events in China: IPCC-AR4 Model Evaluation and Projection. Climatic Change, 2012, 110(1/2): 385-401

Jibson R W, Harp E L, Michael J A. A Method for Producing Digital Probabilistic Seismic Landslide Hazard Maps. Engineering Geology, 2000, 58(3/4): 271-289

Kanungo D P, Arora M K, Sarkar S, . A Comparative Study of Conventional, ANN Black Box, Fuzzy and Combined Neural and Fuzzy Weighting Procedures for Landslide Susceptibility Zonation in Darjeeling Himalayas. Engineering Geology, 2006, 85(3/4): 347-366

Kim B S, Kim B K, Kwon H H. Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Flow Regime of the Han River Basin Using Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration. Hydrological Processes, 2011, 25(5): 691-704

Kim H, Lee D K, Mo Y, . Prediction of Landslides Occurrence Probability under Climate Change Using MaxEnt Model. Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment, 2013, 22(1): 39-50.

Kong W B, Yao Y F, Zhao Z N, . Effects of Vegetation and Slope Aspect on Soil Nitrogen Mineralization during the Growing Season in Sloping Lands of the Loess Plateau. Catena, 2019, 172 753-763.

Kornejady A, Heidari K, Nakhavali M. Assessment of Landslide Susceptibility, Semi-Quantitative Risk and Management in the Ilam Dam Basin, Ilam, Iran. Environmental Resources Research, 2015, 3(1): 85-109

Kornejady A, Ownegh M, Bahremand A. Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Using Maximum Entropy Model with Two Different Data Sampling Methods. Catena, 2017, 152: 144-162.

Korup O, Densmore A L, Schlunegger F. The Role of Landslides in Mountain Range Evolution. Geomorphology, 2010, 120(1/2): 77-90

Korup O, Stolle A. Landslide Prediction from Machine Learning. Geology Today, 2014, 30(1): 26-33

Kutiel P, Lavee H. Effect of Slope Aspect on Soil and Vegetation Properties along an Aridity Transect. Israel Journal of Plant Sciences, 1999, 47(3): 169-178

Lazzari M, Piccarreta M. Landslide Disasters Triggered by Extreme Rainfall Events: The Case of Montescaglioso (Basilicata, Southern Italy). Geosciences, 2018, 8(10): 377

Lee L M, Gofar N, Rahardjo H. A Simple Model for Preliminary Evaluation of Rainfall-Induced Slope Instability. Engineering Geology, 2009, 108 3/4 272-285

Lee S, Ryu J H, Kim I S. Landslide Susceptibility Analysis and Its Verification Using Likelihood Ratio, Logistic Regression, and Artificial Neural Network Models: Case Study of Youngin, Korea. Landslides, 2007, 4(4): 327-338

Li C D, Fu Z Y, Wang Y, . Susceptibility of Reservoir-Induced Landslides and Strategies for Increasing the Slope Stability in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area: Zigui Basin as an Example. Engineering Geology, 2019, 261: 105279

Li C J, Ma T H, Zhu X S, . The Power-Law Relationship between Landslide Occurrence and Rainfall Level. Geomorphology, 2011, 130(3/4): 221-229

Li C, Jia Z H, Yuan Y D, . Effects of Mineral-Solubilizing Microbial Strains on the Mechanical Responses of Roots and Root-Reinforced Soil in External-Soil Spray Seeding Substrate. Science of the Total Environment, 2020, 723 138079

Li Y C, Li M Y, Li C, . Optimized Maxent Model Predictions of Climate Change Impacts on the Suitable Distribution of Cunninghamia Lanceolata in China. Forests, 2020, 11(3): 302-325

Lin Q G, Wang Y, Glade T, . Assessing the Spatiotemporal Impact of Climate Change on Event Rainfall Characteristics Influencing Landslide Occurrences Based on Multiple GCM Projections in China. Climatic Change, 2020, 162(2): 761-779

Lin Y M, Cui P, Ge Y G, . The Succession Characteristics of Soil Erosion during Different Vegetation Succession Stages in Dry-Hot River Valley of Jinsha River, Upper Reaches of Yangtze River. Ecological Engineering, 2014, 62 13-26.

Liu H B, Xu B T, Wang B. Analysis of the Influence of Precipitation on the Stability of Fangshan Slope in Nanjing. Soil Engineering and Foundation, 2020, 34(4): 418-426. (in Chinese with English Abstract)

Liu Z Q, Gilbert G, Cepeda J M, . Modelling of Shallow Landslides with Machine Learning Algorithms. Geoscience Frontiers, 2021, 12(1): 385-393.

López-Moreno J I, Revuelto J, Gilaberte M, . The Effect of Slope Aspect on the Response of Snowpack to Climate Warming in the Pyrenees. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2014, 117(1/2): 207-219

Low B W, Zeng Y W, Tan H H, . Predictor Complexity and Feature Selection Affect Maxent Model Transferability: Evidence from Global Freshwater Invasive Species. Diversity and Distributions, 2021, 27(3): 497-511

Ma B B, Sun J. Predicting the Distribution of Stipa Purpurea across the Tibetan Plateau via the MaxEnt Model. BMC Ecology, 2018, 18(1): 1-12

MacMillan R A, Shary P A. Chapter 9 Landforms and Landform Elements in Geomorphometry. Developments in Soil Science, 2009, Amsterdam: Elsevier, 227-254

Malek Z, Boerboom L, Glade T. Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania. Environmental Management, 2015, 56(5): 1228-1243

Manzoor S A, Griffiths G, Obiakara M C, . Evidence of Ecological Niche Shift in Rhododendron Ponticum (L.) in Britain: Hybridization as a Possible Cause of Rapid Niche Expansion. Ecology and Evolution, 2020, 10(4): 2040-2050. [PubMed]

Marjanović M, Kovačević M, Bajat B, . Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Using SVM Machine Learning Algorithm. Engineering Geology, 2011, 123(3): 225-234

Mas J F, Soares Filho B, Pontius R, . A Suite of Tools for ROC Analysis of Spatial Models. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 2013, 2(3): 869-887

Meehl G A, Zwiers F, Evans J, . Trends in Extreme Weather and Climate Events: Issues Related to Modeling Extremes in Projections of Future Climate Change. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2000, 81(3): 427-436

Miller D K, Miniat C F, Wooten R M, . An Expanded Investigation of Atmospheric Rivers in the Southern Appalachian Mountains and Their Connection to Landslides. Atmosphere, 2019, 10(2): 71-93

Mokhtari M, Abedian S. Spatial Prediction of Landslide Susceptibility in Taleghan Basin, Iran. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2019, 33(7): 1297-1325

Montrasio L, Valentino R. A Model for Triggering Mechanisms of Shallow Landslides. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2008, 8(5): 1149-1159

Morley P J, Donoghue D N, Chen J C, . Montane Forest Expansion at High Elevations Drives Rapid Reduction in Non-Forest Area, Despite no Change in Mean Forest Elevation. Journal of Biogeography, 2020, 47(11): 2405-2416

Mugagga F, Kakembo V, Buyinza M. Land Use Changes on the Slopes of Mount Elgon and the Implications for the Occurrence of Landslides. Catena, 2012, 90: 39-46.

Muscarella R, Galante P J, Soley-Guardia M, . ENM Eval: An R Package for Conducting Spatially Independent Evaluations and Estimating Optimal Model Complexity for Maxent Ecological Niche Models. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2014, 5(11): 1198-1205

Muttarak, R., Lutz, W., 2014. Is Education a Key to Reducing Vulnerability to Natural Disasters and hence Unavoidable Climate Change? Ecology and Society, 19: art42. https://doi.org/10.5751/es-06476-190142

Niculiţǎ M, . Leal Filho W, Nagy G, Borga M, . Landslide Hazard Induced by Climate Changes in North-Eastern Romania. Climate Change, Hazards and Adaptation Options, 2020, Cham: Springer, 245-265

O’Gorman P A. Precipitation Extremes under Climate Change. Current Climate Change Reports, 2015, 1(2): 49-59

Ohlmacher G C. Plan Curvature and Landslide Probability in Regions Dominated by Earth Flows and Earth Slides. Engineering Geology, 2007, 91(2/3/4): 117-134

Onda Y, Tsujimura M, Tabuchi H. The Role of Subsurface Water Flow Paths on Hillslope Hydrological Processes, Landslides and Landform Development in Steep Mountains of Japan. Hydrological Processes, 2004, 18(4): 637-650

Padalia H, Srivastava V, Kushwaha S P S. Modeling Potential Invasion Range of Alien Invasive Species, Hyptis Suaveolens (L.) Poit. in India: Comparison of MaxEnt and GARP. Ecological Informatics, 2014, 22: 36-43.

Pan Q J, Dias D. Three Dimensional Face Stability of a Tunnel in Weak Rock Masses Subjected to Seepage Forces. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 2018, 71: 555-566.

Park N W. Using Maximum Entropy Modeling for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping with Multiple Geoenvironmental Data Sets. Environmental Earth Sciences, 2015, 73(3): 937-949.

Peng D L, Xu Q, Dong X J, . Application of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Low-Altitude Photogrammetry in Investigation and Evaluation of Loess Landslide. Advances in Earth Science, 2017, 32(3): 319-330. (in Chinese with English Abstract)

Peng J B, Wang S K, Wang Q Y, . Distribution and Genetic Types of Loess Landslides in China. Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, 2019, 170: 329-350.

Perreault L M, Yager E M, Aalto R. Effects of Gradient, Distance, Curvature and Aspect on Steep Burned and Unburned Hillslope Soil Erosion and Deposition. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 2017, 42(7): 1033-1048

Peruccacci S, Brunetti M T, Luciani S, . Lithological and Seasonal Control on Rainfall Thresholds for the Possible Initiation of Landslides in Central Italy. Geomorphology, 2012, 139/140: 79-90.

Phillips S J. A Brief Tutorial on Maxent. AT&T Research, 2005, 190(4): 231-259

Phillips S J, Anderson R P, Schapire R E. Maximum Entropy Modeling of Species Geographic Distributions. Ecological Modelling, 2006, 190(3/4): 231-259

Phillips S J, Dudik M. Modeling of Species Distributions with Maxent: New Extensions and a Comprehensive Evaluation. Ecography, 2008, 31(2): 161-175

Pistocchi A, Luzi L, Napolitano P. The Use of Predictive Modeling Techniques for Optimal Exploitation of Spatial Databases: A Case Study in Landslide Hazard Mapping with Expert System-Like Methods. Environmental Geology, 2002, 41(7): 765-775

Poggio L, Simonetti E, Gimona A. Enhancing the WorldClim Data Set for National and Regional Applications. Science of the Total Environment, 2018, 625(1): 1628-1643.

Pourghasemi H R, Kariminejad N, Gayen A, . Statistical Functions Used for Spatial Modelling Due to Assessment of Landslide Distribution and Landscape-Interaction Factors in Iran. Geoscience Frontiers, 2020, 11(4): 1257-1269

Pourghasemi H R, Pradhan B, Gokceoglu C, . Application of Weights-of-Evidence and Certainty Factor Models and Their Comparison in Landslide Susceptibility Mapping at Haraz Watershed, Iran. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 2013, 6(7): 2351-2365

Preti F. Forest Protection and Protection Forest: Tree Root Degradation over Hydrological Shallow Landslides Triggering. Ecological Engineering, 2013, 61: 633-645.

Promper C, Puissant A, Malet J P, . Analysis of Land Cover Changes in the Past and the Future as Contribution to Landslide Risk Scenarios. Applied Geography, 2014, 53: 11-19.

Putra D B E, Choanji T. Preliminary Analysis of Slope Stability in Kuok and Surrounding Areas. Journal of Geoscience, Engineering, Environment, and Technology, 2016, 1(1): 41-44

Rahardjo H, Lee T T, Leong E C, . Response of a Residual Soil Slope to Rainfall. Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 2005, 42(2): 340-351

Raso E, Di Martire D, Cevasco A, . Evaluation of Prediction Capability of the MaxEnt and Frequency Ratio Methods for Landslide Susceptibility in the Vernazza Catchment (Cinque Terre, Italy). Applied Geology, 2020, Cham: Springer International Publishing, 299-316

Razavizadeh S, Solaimani K, Massironi M, . Mapping Landslide Susceptibility with Frequency Ratio, Statistical Index, and Weights of Evidence Models: A Case Study in Northern Iran. Environmental Earth Sciences, 2017, 76(14): 1-16

Regmi A D, Devkota K C, Yoshida K, . Application of Frequency Ratio, Statistical Index, and Weights-of-Evidence Models and Their Comparison in Landslide Susceptibility Mapping in Central Nepal Himalaya. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 2014, 7(2): 725-742

Saez J L, Corona C, Stoffel M, . Climate Change Increases Frequency of Shallow Spring Landslides in the French Alps. Geology, 2013, 41(5): 619-622

Saito H, Nakayama D, Matsuyama H. Comparison of Landslide Susceptibility Based on a Decision-Tree Model and Actual Landslide Occurrence: The Akaishi Mountains, Japan. Geomorphology, 2009, 109(3/4): 108-121

Saito H, Nakayama D, Matsuyama H. Relationship between the Initiation of a Shallow Landslide and Rainfall Intensity—Duration Thresholds in Japan. Geomorphology, 2010, 118(1/2): 167-175

Sassa K, Wang G H, Fukuoka H, . Landslide Risk Evaluation and Hazard Zoning for Rapid and Long-Travel Landslides in Urban Development Areas. Landslides, 2004, 1(3): 221-235

Savenije H H G. HESS Opinions “Topography Driven Conceptual Modelling (FLEX-Topo)”. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2010, 14(12): 2681-2692

Shao X Y, Xu C, Ma S Y, . Effects of Seismogenic Faults on the Predictive Mapping of Probability to Earthquake-Triggered Landslides. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 2019, 8(8): 328-345

Sidle R C, Bogaard T A. Dynamic Earth System and Ecological Controls of Rainfall-Initiated Landslides. Earth-Science Reviews, 2016, 159: 275-291.

Sidle R C, Furuichi T, Kono Y. Unprecedented Rates of Landslide and Surface Erosion along a Newly Constructed Road in Yunnan, China. Natural Hazards, 2011, 57(2): 313-326

Sidle R C, Ghestem M, Stokes A. Epic Landslide Erosion from Mountain Roads in Yunnan, China—Challenges for Sustainable Development. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2014, 14(11): 3093-3104

Skilodimou H, Bathrellos G, Koskeridou E, . Physical and Anthropogenic Factors Related to Landslide Activity in the Northern Peloponnese, Greece. Land, 2018, 7(3): 85-97

Stanley T, Kirschbaum D B, Pascale S, . Extreme Precipitation in the Himalayan Landslide Hotspot. Advances in Global Change Research, 2020, Cham: Springer International Publishing, 1087-1111

Stark C P, Hovius N. The Characterization of Landslide Size Distributions. Geophysical Research Letters, 2001, 28(6): 1091-1094

Stáubli A, Nussbaumer S U, Allen S K, . Analysis of Weather- and Climate-Related Disasters in Mountain Regions Using Different Disaster Databases. Climate Change, Extreme Events and Disaster Risk Reduction, 2018, Cham: Springer, 17-41

Su M B, Chen I H, Liao C H. Using TDR Cables and GPS for Landslide Monitoring in High Mountain Area. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 2009, 135(8): 1113-1121

Swanson F J, Dyrness C T. Impact of Clear-Cutting and Road Construction on Soil Erosion by Landslides in the Western Cascade Range, Oregon. Geology, 1975, 3(7): 393-396

Tangestani M H. Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using the Fuzzy Gamma Approach in a GIS, Kakan Catchment Area, Southwest Iran. Australian Journal of Earth Sciences, 2004, 51(3): 439-450

Thomson S, Morgenstern N R. Factors Affecting Distribution of Landslides along Rivers in Southern Alberta. Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 1977, 14(4): 508-523

Tibaldi A, Ferrari L, Pasquarè G. Landslides Triggered by Earthquakes and Their Relations with Faults and Mountain Slope Geometry: An Example from Ecuador. Geomorphology, 1995, 11(3): 215-226

Townsend Peterson A, Papes M, Eaton M. Transferability and Model Evaluation in Ecological Niche Modeling: A Comparison of GARP and Maxent. Ecography, 2007, 30(4): 550-560

Trant A, Higgs E, Starzomski B M. A Century of High Elevation Ecosystem Change in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Scientific Reports, 2020, 10: 9698

Trenberth K E. Changes in Precipitation with Climate Change. Climate Research, 2011, 47(1): 123-138

Trenberth K E. Climate Change Caused by Human Activities is Happening and it already Has Major Consequences. Journal of Energy & Natural Resources Law, 2018, 36(4): 463-481

Tsaparas I, Rahardjo H, Toll D G, . Controlling Parameters for Rainfall-Induced Landslides. Computers and Geotechnics, 2002, 29(1): 1-27

van Aalst M K. The Impacts of Climate Change on the Risk of Natural Disasters. Disasters, 2006, 30(1): 5-18

van Asch T W J, Malet J P, Bogaard T A. The Effect of Groundwater Fluctuations on the Velocity Pattern of Slow-Moving Landslides. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2009, 9(3): 739-749

van den Eeckhaut M, Muys B, Van Loy K, . Evidence for Repeated re-Activation of Old Landslides under Forest. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 2009, 34(3): 352-365

Varnes D J. Schuster R L, Krizek R J. Slope Movement Types and Processes. Landslides, Analysis and Control, Special Report 176, 1978, Washington, D.C.: Transportation Research Board, National Academy of Sciences, 11-33.

Wang R L, Yang H, Wang M T, . Predictions of Potential Geographical Distribution of Diaphorina Citri (Kuwayama) in China under Climate Change Scenarios. Scientific Reports, 2020, 10: 9202

Wang S Y, Liu J S, Yang C J. Eco-Environmental Vulnerability Evaluation in the Yellow River Basin, China. Pedosphere, 2008, 18(2): 171-182

Wei H B, Li R, Yang Q K. Research Advances of Vegetation Effect on Soil and Water Conservation in China. Acta Phytoecologica Sinica, 2002, 26(4): 489-496. (in Chinese with English Abstract)

Wen X, Deng X Z, Zhang F. Scale Effects of Vegetation Restoration on Soil and Water Conservation in a Semi-Arid Region in China: Resources Conservation and Sustainable Management. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2019, 151 104474

Weng M C, Wu M H, Ning S K, . Evaluating Triggering and Causative Factors of Landslides in Lawnon River Basin, Taiwan. Engineering Geology, 2011, 123(1/2): 72-82

West A M, Kumar S, Brown C S, . Field Validation of an Invasive Species Maxent Model. Ecological Informatics, 2016, 36 126-134.

Westen C J, van Asch T W J, Soeters R. Landslide Hazard and Risk Zonation—Why is It Still so Difficult?. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 2006, 65(2): 167-184

Whitford B R. Characterizing the Cultural Evolutionary Process from Eco-Cultural Niche Models: Niche Construction during the Neolithic of the Struma River Valley (C. 6200–4900 BC). Archaeological and Anthropological Sciences, 2019, 11(5): 2181-2200

Wisz M S, Hijmans R J, Li J, . Effects of Sample Size on the Performance of Species Distribution Models. Diversity and Distributions, 2008, 14(5): 763-773

Wójcik A, Mrozek T, Granoszewski W. Lithological Conditioning of Landslides and Climatic Changes with Examples from the Beskidy Mts., Western Carpathians, Poland. Geografia Fisica e Dinamica Quaternaria, 2006, 29: 197-200.

Xu X B, Yang G S, Tan Y. Identifying Ecological Red Lines in China’s Yangtze River Economic Belt: A Regional Approach. Ecological Indicators, 2019, 96: 635-646.

Yi L X, Ge L L, Zhao D, . An Analysis on Disasters Management System in China. Natural Hazards, 2012, 60(2): 295-309

Yildiz K, Karakaya N, Kilic S, . Interaction Effects of the Main Drivers of Global Climate Change on Spatiotemporal Dynamics of High Altitude Ecosystem Behaviors: Process-Based Modeling. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 2020, 192(7): 1-14

Yu G M, Zhang S, Yu Q W, . Assessing Ecological Security at the Watershed Scale Based on RS/GIS: A Case Study from the Hanjiang River Basin. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2014, 28(2): 307-318

Yu X B, Yu X R, Li C L, . Information Diffusion-Based Risk Assessment of Natural Disasters along the Silk Road Economic Belt in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2020, 244: 118744

Yu X X, Bi H X, Zhu J Z, . Soil and Water Conservation by Forest Vegetation in Loess Area. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 1997, 21(5): 433-453. (in Chinese with English Abstract)

Zhang J J, Jiang F, Li G Y, . Maxent Modeling for Predicting the Spatial Distribution of Three Raptors in the Sanjiangyuan National Park, China. Ecology and Evolution, 2019, 9(11): 6643-6654

Zhang Q F, Xu Z F, Shen Z H, . The Han River Watershed Management Initiative for the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (Middle Route) of China. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 2009, 148(1/2/3/4): 369-377.

Zhou Y, Li N, Wu W X, . Assessment of Provincial Social Vulnerability to Natural Disasters in China. Natural Hazards, 2014, 71(3): 2165-2186

Zhu G P, Qiao H J. Effect of the Maxent Model’s Complexity on the Prediction of Species Potential Distributions. Biodiversity Science, 2016, 24(10): 1189-1196

Zhuang J Q, Peng J B, Wang G H, . Distribution and Characteristics of Landslide in Loess Plateau: A Case Study in Shaanxi Province. Engineering Geology, 2018, 236 89-96.