Short-Impending Earthquake Anomaly Index Extraction of GNSS Continuous Observation Data in Yunnan, Southwestern China

Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive area expansion prediction index method to apply GNSS for short-impending prediction of earthquakes. Based on continuous GNSS observation data from Yunnan Province, a displacement field was detected after data cycle-slip repair using precision data processing software and geophysical field effect model correction. The Yunnan area was divided into 56 grid cells for displacement field interpolation to obtain a more uniform displacement field and a strain field variation time series. The pre-earthquake response of each grid-cell expansion time series was evaluated and synthesized to extract a short-impending earthquake anomaly identification index. The results show that this index indicated occurrence times and hypocenter for earthquakes of magnitude M≥5. Fourteen earthquakes were predicted accurately, and there were five false reports. This index can therefore be used for the short-impending prediction of earthquakes.

Keywords

GNSS / short-impending earthquake prediction / strain / anomaly index / southwestern China

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