Shrinkage of Mt. Bogda glaciers of eastern Tian Shan in Central Asia during 1962–2006

Abstract

Many small mountain glaciers have been reported undergoing strong shrinkage, and it is therefore important to understand how they respond to climate change. The availability of topographic maps from 1962, Landsat TM imagery from 1990 and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Radiometer) imagery from 2006 and field investigation of some glaciers allow a comprehensive analysis of glacier change based on glacier size and topography on Mt. Bogda. Results include: (1) an overall loss of a glacierized area by 31.18±0.31 km² or 21.6% from 1962 to 2006, (2) a marked dependence of glacier area shrinkage on initial size, with smaller glaciers experiencing higher shrinkage levels, (3) the disappearance of 12 small glaciers, (4) a striking difference in area loss between the southern and northern slopes of 25% and 17%, respectively. A subset of the investigated glaciers shows that the area 57.45±0.73 km² in 1962 reduced to 54.79±0.561 km² in 1990 and 48.88±0.49 km² in 2006, with a relative area reduction of 4.6% during 1962–1990, and 10.8% during 1990–2006. The corresponding volume waste increased from 6.9% to 10.2%. Three reference glaciers were investigated in 1981 and revisited in 2009. Their terminus experienced a marked recession. Meteorological data from stations around Mt. Bogda reveals that glacier shrinkage is correlated with winter warming and an extension of the ablation period. Precipitation on the northwest side of the range shows a marked increase, with a slight increase on the southeast side.

Keywords

glacier shrinkage / climate change / water resources / Bogda Mountain / Tian Shan

References

[1] Aizen V. B., Aizen E. M., Melack J. M., . Climatic and Hydrologic Changes in the Tien Shan, Central Asia. Journal of Climate, 1997, 10(6): 1393-1404.

[2] Aizen V. B., Kuzmichenok V. A., Surazakov A. B., . Glacier Changes in the Tien Shan as Determined from Topographic and Remotely Sensed Data. Global and Planetary Change, 2007, 56(3): 328-340.

[3] Bahr D. B., Meier M. F., Peckham S. D. The Physical Basis of Glacier Volume-Area Scaling. Journal of Geophysical Research, 1997, 102(B9): 20355-20362.

[4] Bahr D. B., Dyurgerov M., Meier M. F. Sea-Level Rise from Glaciers and Ice Caps: A Lower Bound. Geophysical Research Letters, 2009, 36 3 L03501

[5] Böhner J. General Climatic Controls and Topoclimatic Variations in Central and High Asia. Boreas, 2006, 35(2): 279-295.

[6] Bolch T. Climate Change and Glacier Retreat in Northern Tien Shan (Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan) Using Remote Sensing Data. Global and Planetary Change, 2007, 56(1): 1-12.

[7] Bolch T., Buchroithner M., Pieczonka T., . Planimetric and Volumetric Glacier Changes in the Khumbu Himal, Nepal, since 1962 Using Corona, Landsat TMand ASTER Data. Journal of Glaciology, 2008, 54(187): 592-600.

[8] Bolch T., Marchenko S. Significance of Glaciers, Rockglaciers and Ice-Rich Permafrost in the Northern Tien Shan as Water Towers under Climate Change Conditions. Proceedings of the Workshop Assessment of Snow-Glacier and Water Resources in Asia, 2009, 2006: 28-30.

[9] Bolch T., Menounos B., Wheate R. Landsat-Based Inventory of Glaciers in Western Canada, 1985–2005. Remote Sensing of Environment, 2010, 114(1): 127-137.

[10] Braithwaite R. J., Olesen O. B. Calculation of Glacier Ablation from Air Temperature, West Greenland. Glaciology and Quaternary Geology, 1989, 19: 219-233.

[11] Chen J. M., Liu C. H., Jin M. X. Application of the Repeated Aerial Photogrammetry to Monitoring Glacier Variation in the Drainage Area of the Urumqi River. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 1996, 18(4): 331-336.

[12] Cubasch U., Meehl G. Projections of Future Climate Change, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, 2001, 525-582.

[13] del Río S., Fraile R., Herrero L., . Analysis of Recent Trends in Mean Maximum and Minimum Temperatures in a Region of the NW of Spain (Castilla y León). Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2007, 90(1): 1-12.

[14] Drieger C. L., Kennard P. M. Glacier Volume Estimation on Cascade Volcanoes: An Analysis and Comparison with Other Methods. Annals of Glaciology, 1986, 8: 59-64.

[15] Fujita K. Effect of Precipitation Seasonality on Climatic Sensitivity of Glacier Mass Balance. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 2008, 276(1): 14-19.

[16] Fang S. F., Pei H., Liu Z. H., . Water Resources Assessment and Regional Virtual Water Potential in the Turpan Basin, China. Water Resources Management, 2010, 24(13): 3321-3332.

[17] Farinotti D., Huss M., Bauder A., . A Method to Estimate the Ice Volume and Ice-Thickness Distribution of Alpine Glaciers. Journal of Glaciology, 2009, 55(191): 422-430.

[18] Giese E., Mossig I., Rybski D., . Long-Term Analysis of Air Temperature Trends in Central Asia. Erdkunde, 2007, 61(2): 186-202.

[19] Haeberli W., Hoelzle M. Application of Inventory Data for Estimating Characteristics and Regional Climate-Change Effects on Mountain Glaciers: A Pilot Study with the European Alps. Annals of Glaciology, 1995, 21: 206-212.

[20] Hagg W., Braun L. N., Kuhn M., . Modelling of Hydrological Response to Climate Change in Glacierized Central Asian Catchments. Journal of Hydrology, 2007, 332(1): 40-53.

[21] Hall D. K., Bayr K. J., Schöner W., . Consideration of the Errors Inherent in Mapping Historical Glacier Positions in Austria from the Ground and Space (1893–2001). Remote Sensing of Environment, 2003, 86(4): 566-577.

[22] Jin R., Li X., Che T., . Glacier Area Changes in the Pumqu River Basin, Tibetan Plateau, between the 1970s and 2001. Journal of Glaciology, 2005, 51(175): 607-610.

[23] Kääb A., Huggel C., Paul F., . Glacier Monitoring from ASTER Imagery: Accuracy and Application. Proceedings of EARSeL, 2002, 2(1): 43-53.

[24] Kaser G. A Review of the Modern Fluctuations of Tropical Glaciers. Global and Planetary Change, 1999, 22(1–4): 93-103.

[25] Khromova T. E. Late-Twentieth Century Changes in Glacier Extent in the Ak-Shirak Range, Central Asia, Determined from Historical Data and ASTER Imagery. Geophysical Research Letters, 2003, 30 16 1863

[26] Kutuzov S., Shahgedanova M. Glacier Retreat and Climatic Variability in the Eastern Terskey-Alatoo, Inner Tien Shan between the Middle of the 19th Century and Beginning of the 21st Century. Global and Planetary Change, 2009, 69(1): 59-70.

[27] Larsen C. F., Motyka R. J., Arendt A. A., . Glacier Changes in Southeast Alaska and Northwest British Columbia and Contribution to Sea Level Rise. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2007, 112 F1 F01007

[28] Li B. L., Zhu A. X., Zhang Y. C., . Glacier Change over the Past Four Decades in the Middle Chinese Tien Shan. Journal of Glaciology, 2006, 52(178): 425-432.

[29] Li K. M., Li Z. Q., Gao W. Y., . Recent Glacial Retreat and Its Effect on Water Resources in Eastern Xinjiang. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2011, 56(33): 3596-3604.

[30] Li K. M., Li H. L., Wang L., . On the Relationship between Local Topography and Small Glacier Change under Climatic Warming on Mt. Bogda, Eastern Tian Shan, China. Journal of Earth Science, 2011, 22(4): 515-527.

[31] Li Z. Q., Han T. D., Jin Z. F., . A Summary of 40-Year Observed Variation Fact of Climate and Glacier No. 1 at Headwater of Urumqi River. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2003, 25(2): 117-123.

[32] Li Z. Q., Shen Y. P., Wang F. T., . Response of Glacier Melting to Climate Change—Take Urumqi Glacier No. 1 as an Example. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2007, 29(3): 333-342.

[33] Linsbauer A., Paul F., Hoelzle M., . The Swiss Alps without Glaciers—AGIS-Based Modeling Approach for Reconstruction of Glacier Beds. Proceedings of Geomorphometry, 2009, 31: 243-247.

[34] Liu S. Y., Sun W. X., Shen Y. P., . Glacier Changes since the Little Ice Age Maximum in the Western Qilian Shan, Northwest China, and Consequences of Glacier Runoff for Water Supply. Journal of Glaciology, 2003, 49(164): 117-124.

[35] Liu S. Y., Ding Y. J., Shangguan D. H., . Glacier Retreat as a Result of Climate Warming and Increased Precipitation in the Tarim River Basin, Northwest China. Annals of Glaciology, 2006, 43(1): 91-96.

[36] López-Moreno J. I., Nogués-Bravo D., Chueca-Cía J., . Change of Topographic Control on the Extent of Cirque Glaciers since the Little Ice Age. Geophysical Research Letters, 2006, 33 24 L24505

[37] Niederer P., Bilenko V., Ershova N., . Tracing Glacier Wastage in the Northern Tien Shan (Kyrgyzstan/Central Asia) over the Last 40 Years. Climatic Change, 2007, 86(1): 227-234.

[38] Narama C., Shimamura Y., Nakayama D., . Recent Changes of Glacier Coverage in the Western Terskey-Alatoo Range, Kyrgyz Republic, Using Corona and Landsat. Annals of Glaciology, 2006, 43(1): 223-229.

[39] Narama C., Kääb A., Duishonakunov M., . Spatial Variability of Recent Glacier Area Changes in the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia, Using Corona (~1970), Landsat (~2000), and ALOS (~2007) Satellite Data. Global and Planetary Change, 2010, 71(1): 42-54.

[40] Paul F. Rapid Disintegration of Alpine Glaciers Observed with Satellite Data. Geophysical Research Letters, 2004, 31 21 L21402

[41] Paul F., Andreassen L. M. A New Glacier Inventory for the Svartisen Region, Norway, from Landsat ETM+ Data: Challenges and Change Assessment. Journal of Glaciology, 2009, 55(192): 607-618.

[42] Paul F., Haeberli W. Spatial Variability of Glacier Elevation Changes in the Swiss Alps Obtained from Two Digital Elevation Models. Geophysical Research Letters, 2008, 35 21 L21502

[43] Racoviteanu A. E., Paul F., Raup B., . Challenges and Recommendations in Mapping of Glacier Parameters from Space: Results of the 2008 Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) Workshop, Boulder, Colorado, USA. Annals of Glaciology, 2009, 50(53): 53-69.

[44] Radic V., Hock R., Oerlemans J. Analysis of Scaling Methods in Deriving Future Volume Evolutions of Valley Glaciers. Journal of Glaciology, 2008, 54(187): 601-612.

[45] Raup B., Kääb A., Kargel J. S., . Remote Sensing and GIS Technology in the Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) Project. Computers & Geosciences, 2007, 33(1): 104-125.

[46] Raup B., Racoviteanu A., Khalsa S. J. S., . The GLIMS Geospatial Glacier Database: A New Tool for Studying Glacier Change. Global and Planetary Change, 2007, 56(1): 101-110.

[47] Shi Y. F., Shen Y. P., Li D., . Discussion on the Present Climate Change from Warm-Dry to Warm-Wet in Northwest China. Quaternary Sciences, 2003, 23(2): 152-164.

[48] Shi Y. F., Shen Y. P., Kang E. S., . Recent and Future Climate Change in Northwest China. Climatic Change, 2006, 80(3): 379-393.

[49] Silverio W., Jaquet J. M. Glacial Cover Mapping (1987–1996) of the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) Using Satellite Imagery. Remote Sensing of Environment, 2005, 95(3): 342-350.

[50] Stearns L. A., Hamilton G. S. Rapid Volume Loss from Two East Greenland Outlet Glaciers Quantified Using Repeat Stereo Satellite Imagery. Geophysical Research Letters, 2007, 34 5 L05503

[51] Su B. D., Jiang T., Jin W. B. Recent Trends in Observed Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin, China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2005, 83(1–4): 139-151.

[52] Svoboda F., Paul F. A New Glacier Inventory on Southern Baffin Island, Canada, from ASTER Data: I. Applied Methods, Challenges and Solutions. Annals of Glaciology, 2009, 50(53): 11-21.

[53] Wang S. J., Du J. K., He Y. Q. Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of a Temperate-Glacier’s Active-Layer Temperature and Its Responses to Climate Change: A Case Study of Baishui Glacier No. 1, Southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Journal of Earth Science, 2014, 25(4): 727-734.

[54] Wang Y., Qiu J. Distributive Features of the Glaciers in Bogda Region, Tian Shan. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 1983, 5(3): 17-24.

[55] Wang Y., Liu C., Ding L., . Glacier Inventory of China (III): Tian Shan Mountains (Interior Drainage Area of Scattered Flow in East), 1986 Beijing: Science Press

[56] Wang Z., Shao W., Zhang J., . Shi Y., Qu Y., . The Observed and Calculation of Rainfall at the Zone with High Elevation on the South Slope of the Bogda-Peak Region. Water Resource and Environment in Caiwopu-Dabancheng Region, 1989 Beijing: Science Press

[57] Wang Z. A Discussion on the Questions of Development of Heigou Glacier No. 8, Bogda-Peak Region. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 1991, 13(2): 141-146.

[58] Wang Y. T., Hou S. G., Liu Y. P. Glacier Changes in the Karlik Shan, Eastern Tien Shan, during 1971/72–2001/02. Annals of Glaciology, 2009, 50(53): 39-45.

[59] Wagnon P., Ribstein P., Kaser G., . Energy Balance and Runoff Seasonality of a Bolivian Glacier. Global and Planetary Change, 1999, 22(1–4): 49-58.

[60] Williams R. S., Hall D. K., Chien J. Y. L. Comparison of Satellite-Derived with Ground-Based Measurements of the Fluctuations of the Margins of Vatnajökull, Iceland, 1973-92. Annals of Glaciology, 1997, 24: 72-80.

[61] WGMS, 2008. Global Glacier Changes: Facts and Figure. In: Zemp, M., Roer, I., Kääb, A., et al., eds., United Nations Environment Programme. World Glacier Monitoring Service, Zurich

[62] Wu G., Yutaka A., Qiu J. Physical Geographic Features and Climatic Conditions of Glacial Development in Bogda Area, Tian Shan. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 1983, 5(3): 5-16.

[63] Wu G., Zhang S., Wang Z. Retreat and Advance of Modern Glaciers in Bogda, Tian Shan. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 1983, 5(3): 143-152.

[64] Xie Z., Wu G., Wang Z., . Ice Formation of Glaciers on the Northern Slope of Bogda, Tian Shan. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 1983, 5(3): 37-44.

[65] Ye B. S., Yang D. Q., Jiao K. Q., . The Urumqi River Source Glacier No. 1, Tianshan, China: Changes over the Past 45 Years. Geophysical Research Letters, 2005, 32 21 L21504

[66] Ye Q. H., Kang S. C., Chen F., . Monitoring Glacier Variations on Geladandong Mountain, Central Tibetan Plateau, from 1969 to 2002 Using Remote-Sensing and GIS Technologies. Journal of Glaciology, 2006, 52(179): 537-545.