Influence of degree-day factor variation on the mass balance of Glacier No. 1 at the headwaters of Ürümqi River, China

Abstract

The degree-day factor (DDF) is a key parameter in the degree-day model, and the variations in DDF have the significant effects on the accuracy of glacier mass balance modeling. In this study, Glacier No. 1 at the headwaters of Ürümqi (乌鲁木齐) River in China was selected, and the estimated DDF by stakes-observed mass balance and meteorological data from 1983–2006 was used to analyze the spatio-temporal variability of DDF and its influencing factors, such as climate condition, surface feature, and topography. Then, the ablations from the 1980s to 2000s were estimated using the degree-day model, and the ablation change from the 1980s to 2000s was divided into the changes caused by climate change and by the ice-surface feature. The following results were obtained: (1) The annual change in DDF for snow was not obvious, whereas that for ice increased, and the increasing trend on the lower glacier was more significant than that on the upper glacier because of decreased albedo caused by variations in ice-surface feature; (2) The DDF for ice clearly decreased with altitude by approximately 0.046 and 0.043 mm·°C⁻¹·d⁻¹·m⁻¹ on the east and west branches, respectively, and the DDF of the west branch was obviously larger than that of the east branch in the same altitude belt; (3) the changes in mass balance in the summers from the 1980s to 2000s were −391 and −467 mm on the east and west branches, respectively. Among the total changes, the components directly caused by climate change were −193 and −198 mm, whereas those indirectly caused by ice-surface feature change were −198 and −269 mm on the east and west branches, respectively.

Keywords

degree-day factor / mass balance / Glacier No. 1 / climate change

References

Arendt A, Sharp M. Energy Balance Measurements on a Canadian High Arctic Glacier and Their Implications for Mass Balance Modeling. IAHs Pub1., 1999, 256: 165-172.

Braithwaite R J. Positive Degree-Day Factor for Ablation on the Greenland Ice Sheet Studied by Energy Balance Modeling. J. Glaciology, 1995, 41(137): 153-160.

Braithwaite R J, Olesen O B. Oerleamns J. Calculation of Glacier Ablation from Air Temperature, West Greenland. Glacier Fluctuations and Climatic Change, 1989 New York: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 219-233.

Braithwaite R J, Olesen O B. Seasonal Variation of Ice Ablation at the Margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet and Its Sensitivity to Climate Change, Qamanrss Psermia, West Greenland. J. Glaciology, 1993, 39(132): 267-274.

Braithwaite R J, Zhang Y. Modeling Changes in Glacier Mass Balance that May Occur as a Result of Climate Changes. Geogr. Ann., 1999, 81A(4): 489-496.

Braithwaite R J, Zhang Y. Sensitivity of Mass Balance of Five Swiss Glaciers to Temperature Changes Assessed by Tuning a Degree-Day Model. J. Glaciology, 2000, 46: 7-14.

Cazorzi F, Fontana G D. Snowmelt Modeling by Combining Air Temperature and a Distributed Radiation Index. J. Hydrology, 1996, 181: 169-187.

Ding Y J, Liu S Y, Li J, . The Retreat of Glaciers in Response to Recent Climate Warming in Western China. Annals of Glaciology, 2006, 43(1): 97-105.

Finsterwalder S, Schunk H. Der Suldenferner. Zeitschrift des Deutschen und Oesterreichischen Alpenvereins, 1887, 18: 72-89.

Fu P, Rich P M. A Geometric Solar Radiation Model with Applications in Agriculture and Forestry. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 2002, 37: 25-35.

Hock R. A Distributed Temperature Index Ice and Snowmelt Model Including Potential Direct Solar Radiation. J. Glaciology, 1999, 45(149): 101-111.

Hock R. Temperature Index Melt Modeling in Mountain Areas. J. Glaciology, 2003, 282: 104-115.

Hock R. Glacier Melt: A Review of Processes and Their Modeling. Progress in Physical Geography, 2005, 29(3): 362-391.

Lang H. Relations between Glacier Runoff and Meteorological Factors Observed on and outside the Glacier. IAHS Pub1., 1968, 79: 429-439.

Laumann T, Reeh N. Sensitivity to Climate Change of the Mass Balance of Glaciers in Southern Norway. J. Glaciology, 1993, 39(133): 635-665.

Li X Y, Li Z Q, You X N, . Study of the Ice Formation Zones and Stratigraphy Profiles of Snow Pits on the Glacier No. 1 at the Headwaters of Urumqi River. J. Glaciology and Geocryology, 2006, 28(1): 37-44.

Liu C H, Xie Z C, Wang C Z. A Research on the Mass Balance Processes of Glacier No. 1 at the Headwaters of the Urumqi River, Tianshan Mountains. J. Glaciology and Geocryology, 1997, 19(1): 17-24.

Liu S Y, Ding Y J, Wang N L, . Mass Balance Sensitivity to Climate Change of the Glacier No. 1 at the Urumqi River Head, Tianshan Mts. J. Glaciology and Geocryology, 1998, 20(1): 9-13.

Liu S Y, Ding Y J, Ye B S, . Study on the Mass Balance of the Glacier No. 1 at the Headwaters of the Urumqi River Using Degree-Day Method. Proceedings of the Fifth Chinese Conference on Glaciology and Geocryology (Vol. 1), 1996 Lanzhou: Gansu Culture Press, 197-204.

Liu S Y, Sun W X, Shen Y P. Glacier Changes Since the Little Ice Age Maximum in the Western Qilian Shan, Northwest China, and Consequences of Glacier Runoff for Water Supply. Journal of Glaciology, 2006, 49(164): 117-124.

Ohmura A. Physical Basis for the Temperature-Based Melt Index Method. J. App1. Meteorology, 2001, 40: 753-761.

Rich P M. Characterizing Plant Canopies with Hemispherical Photography. Instrumentation for Studying Vegetation Canopies for Remote Sensing in Optical and Thermal Infrared Regions. Remote Sensing Reviews, 1990, 5: 13-29.

Rich P M, Hetrick W A, Saving S C. Modeling Topographic Influences on Solar Radiation: a Manual for the Solar Flux Model, 1995

Schreider S Y, Whetton P H, Jakeman A J, . Runoff Modeling for Snow Affected Catchments in the Australian Alpine Region, Eastern Victoria. J. Hydrology, 1997, 200: 1-23.

Shi Y F, Shen Y P, Li D L, . An Assessment of the Issues of Climatic Shift from Warm-Dry to Warm-Wet in Northwest China, 2003 Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 4-97.

Singh P N K, Arora M. Degree-Day Factors for Snow and Ice for Dokriani Glacier, Garhwal Himalayas. J. Hydrology, 2000, 235: 1-11.

Wang J, Ye B S, Cui Y H, . Spatial and Temporal Variations of Albedos on Nine Glaciers in Western China from 2000 to 2011. Hydrological Processes, 2013

Yang D Q, Jiang T, Zhang Y S, . Analysis and Correction of Errors in Precipitation Measurement at the Head of Urumqi River, Tianshan. J. Glaciology Geocryology, 1988, 10(4): 384-400.

Yao T D, Wang Y Q, Liu S Y, . Recent Glacial Retreat in High Asia in China and Its Impact on Water Resource in Northwest China. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, 2004, 47(12): 1065-1075.

Ye B S. The Effect of Climatic Change on Water Resources in the Tianshan Mountains: [Dissertation], 1994 Lanzhou: Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 49-50.

Zhang Y, Liu S Y, Ding Y J. Spatial Variation of Degree-Day Factors on the Observed Glaciers in Western China. J. Glaciology Geocryology, 2006, 61(1): 89-98.

Zhang Y, Liu S Y, Shangguan D H, . Positive Degree-Day Factor for Keqicar Baqi Glacier, South of Tianshan. J. Glaciology Geocryology, 2005, 27(3): 337-343.