Ensemble forecast of tropical cyclone tracks based on deep neural networks

Abstract

A nonlinear artificial intelligence ensemble forecast model has been developed in this paper for predicting tropical cyclone (TC) tracks based on the deep neural network (DNN) by using the 24-h forecast data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Data from a total of 287 TC cases over the Northwest Pacific Ocean from 2004 to 2015 were used to train and validate the DNN based ensemble forecast (DNNEF) model. The comparison of model results with Best Track data of TCs shows that the DNNEF model has a higher accuracy than any individual forecast center or the traditional ensemble forecast model. The average 24-h forecast error of 82 TCs from 2016 to 2018 is 63 km, which has been reduced by 17.1%, 16.0%, 20.3%, and 4.6%, respectively, compared with that of CMA, JMA, JTWC, and the error-estimation based ensemble method. The results indicate that the nonlinear DNNEF model has the capability of adjusting the model parameter dynamically and automatically, thus improving the accuracy and stability of TC prediction.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

tropical cyclone track / deep neural network / ensemble forecast

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