Reliability analysis of Lan Chengyu corroded pipeline with associated defects

Abstract

Traditional reliability evaluation method for corroded pipeline exists the problem of not considering the associated defects. We therefore propose a new calculation method considering the associated defects. In this paper, the traditional and new methods are respectively used to calculate and contrastively analyze the failure probability of corroded pipeline; we then perform the research of residual life prediction for the corroded pipeline, followed by the sensitivity calculation of all random evaluation parameters. And then the Monte Carlo method (MCS) is applied to verify the rationality of the new method. The research results show that: the method considering associated defect is more objective, and truly react corroded pipeline's dynamic reliability changes; obtain new method to predict residual life of corroded pipeline; corrosion depth, radial corrosion rate have a significant impact on reliability of corroded pipeline considering associated defects. The calculation results of the method are more accurate, more time-saving.

Keywords

Corroded pipeline / Associated pipeline / Reliability analysis / The remaining life / Sensitivity

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