1 Introduction of Guofang Zhai
Professor Guofang Zhai currently serves as the Director of the Center for Urban Safety and Development at Nanjing University. He also holds several positions, including being a member of the Chinese National Committee for Future Earth (CNC-FE) and the secretary-general of the Society for Risk Analysis Asia (SRA Asia). His main research interests and practice include territorial spatial planning, urban public safety planning, and particularly focuses on the development and evaluation of resilient city construction both in China and abroad. As an expert consultant, he has contributed to the planning in cities such as Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Nanjing, and the preparation of the National Territorial Spatial Planning Outline (2021–2035).
1.1 The disasters frequently happened these years made the term "resilience" gained increasing attention. Could you first share your understanding of the concepts of "risk" and "resilience"?
Guofang ZHAI ("ZHAI" hereafter):Risk is generally understood as a possibility of an event causing potential negative impacts on individuals, cities, and societies—the event can be an earthquake, a flood, a debris flow, a landslide, and other disasters. Since the end of the 20th century, the strategies for risk response have evolved from disaster prevention to reduction, and now to resilience governance, shifting from the pursuit of "zero risk" to living with risk. Humans have realized there is no objective "zero risk" and acknowledged their limited control over the occurrence of disasters. Due to the fact that the manpower, economic, and technological resources invested in reducing risk are finite, humans must live with risk—as explicitly stated in the Hyogo Declaration adopted by the UN at the 2nd World Conference on Disaster Reduction held in Hyogo, Japan in 2005, that "human societies have to live with the risk of hazards posed by nature."
[1] The ability of humans to live with risk is termed "Resilience, " referring to the capacity to withstand, absorb, adapt to and learn from external shocks, while also can rapidly recover from damage. If such shocks are caused by natural disasters, it encompasses disaster prevention, emergency rescue, post-disaster recovery and reconstruction, and learning and adaptation.
1.2 How is the development process of resilient city construction in China?
ZHAI:The resilient city construction in China has three significant milestones. First in 2005, following the 2nd World Conference on Disaster Reduction, the concept of "resilience" was introduced to China with various translations. The confusion in translation has hindered the development of related planning disciplines.
The year of 2015, the second milestone, marked the real beginning for resilient city construction in China after a ten-year preparatory period, when Nanjing University applied to hold a "Risk Society and Resilient City" sub-forum on the Annual National Planning Conference of China, a prestigious conference organized by the Urban Planning Society of China (UPSC). However, "tanxing" (弹性, meaning "flexibility") was adopted as the Chinese translation of "resilience" at that time according to the recommendation of the UPSC. In light of the prevalent translation of "resilience" as "renxing" (韧性, official translation at present) in literature and to distinguish it from the established concept of "flexible planning" in the realm of planning, the Urban Planning International journal published a special issue on "Resilient Cities: A New Shift to Urban Crisis Management" which adopted the translation "renxing" later in the same year. Also in 2015, Nanjing University undertook China's first planning practice project on the basis of resilient city theory—the study on resilience enhancement planning for municipal facilities in Hefei. Since then, the term "resilience" has been more widely translated as "renxing" and increasingly diverse related practices have emerged.
By 2020, the third milestone, the construction of resilient cities was highly valued in the Proposal of the Communist Party of China Central Committee on Formulating the 14th Five-year Plan for Economic and Social Development and the Long-range Objectives through the Year 2035. The Report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China published in 2022 further explicitly proposed to build "livable, resilient, and smart cities, " elevating resilient city construction to a national strategic level. Subsequently, Beijing and Shenzhen have carried out policies on promoting resilient city construction, and cities including Beijing, Zhengzhou, and Xining have published their resilient city planning documents. It is informed that the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China plans to start the urban resilience assessment to help enhance urban safety at national level.
1.3 Referring to the international advanced experiences, which aspect of resilience improvement is most pressing in China?
ZHAI:Although the construction of resilient cities in China has seen significant progress, there is still a gap compared with developed countries. An analysis of the death toll from earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher occurring in Japan and in China after 1900 shows that the number of death in China was tenfold of that in Japan; and the economic loss caused by floods each year in China was about 2.5 times of that in Japan
[2].
Our research team has developed an resilience evaluation indicator system of urban disasters from six aspects: economic, social, environmental, community, infrastructural, and institutional resilience, and assessed the disaster resilience and its spatial differences in 288 prefecture-level cities across China
[3]. Firstly, all aspects of resilience are equally important and interconnected with each other. For reducing the losses caused by natural disasters, the primary task is to enhance infrastructure resilience, as the city's first line of defense. For example, although Nature-based Solutions can be a positive supplement to address flood disasters, the infrastructure (levees, reservoirs, drainage networks, etc.) always plays the greater role, especially when facing heavy or extreme rainfall. Establishing infrastructure resilience is relatively lagging behind in China, for instance, some infrastructure cannot meet the protection standards, which urgently needs to be improved.
Regarding environmental resilience, disaster risk is closely related to the hazard inducing environment. For instance, a low green coverage can increase the risk of secondary disasters such as debris flows after an earthquake. Community resilience and social resilience are closely related, as community is the basic unit of society. Complete disaster prevention, reduction, and rescue facilities, and increased public awareness of disaster prevention within a community can effectively strengthen the ability of the society at large to cope with risks. Harmony and inclusiveness among different social strata and groups also contribute to jointly resisting risks. Institutional resilience reflects the guidance or governance capability over economy, environment, and society. All forementioned aspects are established on the foundation of economic resilience, in other words, economic development is the most pressing task at present. In the study, the research team also found that the top ten cities in resilience ranking are mostly located in the coastal areas of eastern China, while the bottom ten are medium- and small-sized cities in central and western regions, with a difference as high as nearly ten times between the top and bottom ones
[3]. Generally, the resilience of rural areas is lower than urban areas because of the lagging economic level, less developed infrastructure, lack of protection standards of building construction, weaker disaster prevention awareness, and a larger number of left-behind elderly and children. On the one hand, the development of economy can support the enhancement of other aspects of resilience; on the other hand, economic growth is inseparable from disaster prevention and mitigation. When a city's capability to cope with disasters is enhanced, losses would be reduced and social wealth accumulation is facilitated accordingly. Studies have shown that every dollar invested in disaster prevention and mitigation can yield a return of six dollars
[4]. However, the current difficulty lies in raising people's awareness of resilience construction. Since the return period of enhancing resilience is relatively long, it is hard to see immediate results or achievements during the tenure of managers and thus such construction is often overlooked by administrators.
1.4 Recent research on urban resilience increasingly advocates for comprehensive governance throughout the whole process, incorporating multiple factors and systems (including society, economy, spatial environment, culture, management, and infrastructure)[5]. How can such research offer effective support for planning and design practice? Is there any disconnect?
ZHAI:Current research has proposed many theoretical frameworks—for instance, I have proposed a comprehensive governance framework of resilient cities that encompasses five dimensions: scales/levels, types of disasters, phases, elements, and participating entities. It helps make various planning, construction, and management departments aware of that the governance focuses should vary when facing different entities, at different scales, in response to different types of disasters, and at different phases of a disaster (Fig.1). These theoretical studies have already provided effective guidance for planning and design practice with extreme disaster scenario simulation. For example, the Resilient City Spatial Planning of Beijing (2022–2035) involves all types of disasters of Beijing and conducted a whole-process scenario simulation for two major threats—flood and earthquake. The severe disaster situations, the "7·20" extreme rainfall in Zhengzhou and the magnitude 8.0 Sanhe–Pinggu earthquake, were referenced for disaster scenario simulation. Based on the simulation results, the ways to prevent, recover, and rebuild from the disasters, and the responsibilities of various entities were clarified. Similarly, the Emergency Evacuation and Rescue Spatial Planning of Shenzhen (2021–2035) deploys a "5+1" spatial system of emergency evacuation and rescue, which consists of shelters, rescue facilities, medical and health care facilities, supplies storage and distribution facilities, escape and refuge space for emergency, and transportation facilities. The planning team also simulated the maximum population size needed to be evacuated during extreme disasters that have occurred over the past forty years.
1.5 The rainfall and flood disasters need a special focus in resilient city construction in China. In your view, apart from common engineering measures such as infrastructure and sponge city construction, what non-engineering measures are worth noting?
ZHAI:There are four common non-engineering measures to enhance resilience to rainfall and flood disasters. The first measure involves formulating disaster prevention planning that defines restrictions on building or structure types within zones of different flood risk levels. Notably, construction of residential buildings is prohibited in zones identified with a 50-year flood frequency. The second measure refers to the generation of flood risk maps that are open-access to the public, detailing predicted flooding depths to enhance preparedness for significant rainfall events. Currently, China is promoting the development of such maps, though their adoption has not been made mandatory. The third one emphasizes the application of advanced technology in forecasting and early warnings. For instance, in Japan, a tsunami warning was issued within three minutes of the earthquake on March 11, 2011, offering relatively more evacuation time compared with the 17-minute warnings in the 1950s
[6]. While China has developed mature early warning technology for earthquakes and floods, their widespread implementation remains sparse. The fourth one is raising public awareness of risks and enhancing individual disaster preparedness skills, as well as establishing community-based aid systems. The last measure is the exploration of catastrophe insurance to mitigate economic losses, but such insurance schemes have not been fully implemented in China.
By the way, I firmly support the continuation of sponge city construction, despite current challenges. Many misunderstand that sponge city construction can permanently prevent flooding. Instead, its major function is the retention of water resources, mainly addressing issues of uneven temporal and spatial distribution of water. Furthermore, sponge city projects are normally large in scale with prolonged timelines, involving complex stakeholders. In some regions, the construction has strayed from scientific guidelines, with decisions on locations made based on ease rather than necessity, or even diverting dedicated funds for other uses, leading to diminished public acceptance. Nevertheless, numerous excellent domestic and international cases of coping with rainfall and flood disasters have proven that spongy city construction can effectively reduce the risk.
1.6 How should we enhance public awareness of risks and thereby promote individual participation in resilient city construction? And what role should planners, designers, and researchers play?
ZHAI:Firstly, ensure economic development, as only after solving the basic needs for survival can the public's awareness of risks be further enhanced. Secondly, within permissible limits, the information disclosure should be strengthened, regarding disaster prevention, mitigation, and rescue. Thirdly, emphasizing the emergency preview. Fourthly, promoting both the domestic and international paradigms of excellent resilient city construction to public, as well as self-help and rescue measures facing extreme events. Every individual should recognize his/her primary responsibility for disaster prevention under the management of the government.
For planners and designers, it is essential to have a deeper understanding of the possible disasters and their trends. For instance, when preparing the resilience planning responding to flood disasters, it is necessary to integrate with the relevant territorial spatial planning, as well as assess the changing trend and impacts of flood events in the context of climate change (Fig.2). It is stated in the
Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that "some future changes are unavoidable and/or irreversible"
[7]. This suggests that for East Asia, the risk of rainfall and flood disasters and droughts will increase. Therefore, facing the issue of spatial imbalance of urban resilience, it is necessary to give full play to the role of territorial spatial planning based on wholeprocess, multi-factor, multi-system research on urban resilience for planning and design practice. Planners and designers need to consider the impacts of climate change on cities, such as rising sea levels and increased variability in rainfall; raise protection standards to ensure that existing drainage networks, levees, and other infrastructure can effectively withstand disasters; promote emergency evacuation and rescue spatial planning; conduct vertical planning and design to reasonably determine the functions, forms, and accessible building or structure types of predicted flood inundation areas; and adopt Nature-based Solutions to drive the work by nature. Moreover, with increased extreme climate disasters, it necessitates the emergency responses to disasters that exceed the established protection standards.
For researchers, there are several aspects that are worth attention. First, the study of the interlocked effects and disasterforming mechanisms when multiple disasters such as earthquakes, floods, and fires occur simultaneously or successively. Second, the transmission mechanisms of the impacts by disasters, for example, how the impact on electricity and transportation can transfer to other urban systems such as mobility and public health, and how this impact spreads tempo-spatially. Third, the formation mechanisms and assessment methods for regional network resilience which considers cities as a series of nodes. Finally, theoretical and technical frameworks for responding to rarely occurred disasters (or "low-probability, high-consequence events") and unknown disasters (e.g., black swan events).
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