RESILIENCE STRATEGIES TO IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON THE AGRICULTURAL AREAS IN NANSHA DISTRICT OF GUANGZHOU

Abstract

It envinces that sea level rise aggravates low-lying terrain inundation, storm surges, beach erosion, and other ecological damages. The developed agricultural system in the Pearl River Delta is at a high risk to floods; and, in light of the tactical significance of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and its high vulnerability to sea level rise and storm surges, it urgently requires to study their impacts on the agricultural areas in this region.

Taking Nansha District, Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, China as the study area, this study builds a vulnerability evaluation model of agricultural areas with the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence framework using an indicator system upon exposure, sensibility, and adaptation, and quantitatively predicts the inundation risk level, financial loss, and vulnerability patterns of varied scenarios of sea level rise superimposed with storm surges with the ArcGIS. The main findings include 1) the stimulated proportion of inundated areas in minimum-risk and maximum-risk scenarios is 73.38% and 87.96% respectively, and the estimated financial loss in both scenarios is RMB 3,897.3855 million and 7,140.4979 million, respectively; 2) the central Nansha will suffer from a higher inundation risk, and the northern and southern agriculatural parts within the study area have a higher vulnerability to flood disasters. Resilience strategies—through defense, adaptation, or relocation—for each vulnerable zone are then proposed accordingly.

Keywords

Sea Level Rise / Coastal Agricultural Area / Vulnerability Evaluation / Resilience Strategy / Defense / Adaptation / Relocation

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