Urban Flood Risk Prediction and Influencing Factors Analysis Based on the MaxEnt-PLUS Model

Abstract

The scientific prediction of future urban flood risks has become a critical issue in urban planning. Shenzhen, a high-density city severely affected by typhoons, storm surges, and extreme rainfall, is facing escalating flood risks and urgently needs to enhance its urban resilience. This study couples the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model with the PLUS model to forecast land use changes and urban flood risks in Shenzhen for the years 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100 under business-as-usual, planning-guided, and ecological conservation scenarios, based on key factors derived from Global Climate Models (GCMs). This research further identifies the driving factors of flood risks and proposes strategies to optimize land use in urban renewal. The results indicate that built-up areas are exposed to significantly higher flood risks than blue and green spaces under the long-term trends of rising temperatures and precipitation. However, development under the ecological conservation scenario can effectively reduce urban flood risks, with the area of high-risk zones decreasing by 7.29% and low-risk zones increasing by 18.79% by 2100 compared with 2020. Meanwhile, land use type and elevation are identified as the main factors affecting flood risks. This research provides a scientific basis for enhancing resilience and optimizing green infrastructure in the context of urban renewal.

Keywords

Urban Flood / MaxEnt-PLUS Model / Resilient City / Blue-Green Infrastructure / Climate Adaptation

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

Higher Education Press