Phase- and epidemic region-adjusted estimation of the number of coronavirus disease 2019 cases in China

Abstract

The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 in China was first reported in Wuhan in December 2019 and gradually spread to other areas in China. After implementation of prevention and control measures, the estimation of the epidemic trend is needed. A phase- and region-adjusted SEIR model was applied for modeling and predicting the number of cases in Wuhan, Hubei Province and regions outside Hubei Province in China. The estimated number of infections could reach its peak in late February 2020 in Wuhan and Hubei Province, which is 55 303–84 520 and 83 944–129 312, respectively, while the epidemic peaks in regions outside Hubei Province in China could appear on February 13, 2020 with the estimated 13 035–19 108 cases. According to the estimation, the outbreak would abate in March and April all over China. Current estimation provided evidence for planned work resumption under stringent prevention and control in China to further support the fight against the epidemic. Nevertheless, there is still possibility of the second outbreak brought by the work resumption and population migration, especially from Hubei Province and high intensity cities outside Hubei Province. Strict prevention and control measures still need to be considered in the regions with high intensity of epidemic and densely-populated cities.

Keywords

SEIR model / COVID-19 / estimate / China

References

[1] WHO. Pneumonia of unknown cause—China. January 5, 2020.

[2] WHO. Statement on the second meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). January 30, 2020.

[3] National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China.Update on the incidence of pneumonia with novel coronavirus infection. March 12, 2020. (in Chinese)

[4] Imai N, . Report 3: Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV. March 11, 2020.

[5] Read JM, Bridgen JRE, Cummings DAT, Ho A, Jewell CP. Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions. MedRxiv 2020; doi: 10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549

[6] Zhao S, Lin Q, Ran J, Musa SS, Yang G, Wang W, Lou Y, Gao D, Yang L, He D, Wang MH. Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus. Int J Infect Dis 2020; 92: 214–217

[7] Wang H, Wang Z, Dong Y, Chang R, Xu C, Yu X, Zhang S, Tsamlag L, Shang M, Huang J, Wang Y, Xu G, Shen T, Zhang X, Cai Y. Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of coronavirus disease 2019 cases in Wuhan, China. Cell Discov 2020; 6(1): 10

[8] Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, Wang X, Zhou L, Tong Y, Ren R, Leung KSM, Lau EHY, Wong JY, Xing X, Xiang N, Wu Y, Li C, Chen Q, Li D, Liu T, Zhao J, Li M, Tu W, Chen C, Jin L, Yang R, Wang Q, Zhou S, Wang R, Liu H, Luo Y, Liu Y, Shao G, Li H, Tao Z, Yang Y, Deng Z, Liu B, Ma Z, Zhang Y, Shi G, Lam TTY, Wu JTK, Gao GF, Cowling BJ, Yang B, Leung GM, Feng Z. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia. N Engl J Med 2020 Jan 29. [Epub ahead of print] doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2001316

[9] Tang B, Wang X, Li Q, Bragazzi NL, Tang S, Xiao Y, Wu JH. Estimation of the transmission risk of 2019-nCoV and its implication for public health interventions. SSRN 2020 Jan 24. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.3525558

[10] Browne C, Gulbudak H, Webb G. Modeling contact tracing in outbreaks with application to Ebola. J Theor Biol 2015; 384: 33–49

[11] Chen SC, Chang CF, Liao CM. Predictive models of control strategies involved in containing indoor airborne infections. Indoor Air 2006; 16(6): 469–481

[12] WHO. Novel coronavirus—China. January 12, 2020.

[13] Hui DS, I Azhar E, Madani TA, Ntoumi F, Kock R, Dar O, Ippolito G, Mchugh TD, Memish ZA, Drosten C, Zumla A, Petersen E. The continuing 2019-nCoV epidemic threat of novel coronaviruses to global health — the latest 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China. Int J Infect Dis 2020; 91: 264–266

[14] The Central People’s Government of the People’s Republic of China. Notice on Wuhan novel coronavirus infection of pneumonia epidemic prevention and control. 2020. (in Chinese)

[15] National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China. Full mobilization to contain the epidemic. January 27, 2020. (in Chinese)

[16] The Central People’s Government of the People’s Republic of China. Notice on prolonging the Spring Festival Holiday. 2020. (in Chinese)

[17] National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China. Prevention and Control Plan for New Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia (version 3). January 28, 2020. (in Chinese)

[18] The People’s Government of Wuhan. Wuhan Huoshenshan Hospital was completed today. February 2, 2020. (in Chinese)

[19] The People’s Government of Hubei Province. Wuhan Leishenshan Hospital welcomed its first confirmed 2019-nCoV patients. February 9, 2020. (in Chinese)

[20] National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China. Do the best to prevent and control the epidemic from the source. February 6, 2020. (in Chinese)

[21] Health Commission of Huber Province. Update on 2019-nCoV cases in Hubei Province. February 13, 2020. (in Chinese)

[22] Fang H, Chen J, Hu J. Modelling the SARS epidemic by a lattice-based Monte-Carlo simulation. Conf Proc IEEE Eng Med Biol Soc 2005; 2005(7): 7470–7473

[23] Saito MM, Imoto S, Yamaguchi R, Sato H, Nakada H, Kami M, Miyano S, Higuchi T. Extension and verification of the SEIR model on the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in Japan. Math Biosci 2013; 246(1): 47–54

[24] Smirnova A, deCamp L, Chowell G.Forecasting epidemics through nonparametric estimation of time-dependent transmission rates using the SEIR model. Bull Math Biol 2019; 81(11):4343–4365

[25] Getz WM2, Salter R, Mgbara W. Adequacy of SEIR models when epidemics have spatial structure: Ebola in Sierra Leone. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2019; 374(1775): 20180282

[26] Feng Z, Yang Y, Xu D, Zhang P, McCauley MM, Glasser JW. Timely identification of optimal control strategies for emerging infectious diseases. J Theor Biol 2009; 259(1): 165–171

[27] Peak CM, Childs LM, Grad YH, Buckee CO. Comparing nonpharmaceutical interventions for containing emerging epidemics. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2017; 114(15): 4023–4028

[28] Chowell G, Nishiura H, Bettencourt L. Comparative estimation of the reproduction number for pandemic influenza from daily case notification data. J R Soc Interface 2007; 4(12): 155–166

[29] Chowell G, Hengartner NW, Castillo-Chavez C, Fenimore PW, Hyman JM. The basic reproductive number of Ebola and the effects of public health measures: the cases of Congo and Uganda. J Theor Biol 2004; 229(1): 119–126

[30] The 2019-nCoV Outbreak Joint Field Epidemiology Investigation Team, Li Q. Notes from the field: an outbreak of NCIP (2019-nCoV) infection in China — Wuhan, Hubei Province, 2019–2020. China CDC Weekly 2020; 2(5):79–80

[31] Guan W, Ni Z, Hu Y, Liang W, Ou C, He J, Liu L, Shan H, Lei C, Hui DSC, Du B, Li L, Zeng G, Yuen K, Chen R, Tang C, Wang T, Chen P, Xiang J, Li S, Wang J, Liang Z, Peng Y, Wei L, Liu Y, Hu Y, Peng P, Wang J, Liu J, Chen Z, Li G, Zheng Z, Qiu S, Luo J, Ye C, Zhu S, Zhong N. Clinical characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infection in China. medRxiv 2020; doi: 2020.02. 06.20020974

[32] Chen N, Zhou M, Dong X, Qu J, Gong F, Han Y, Qiu Y, Wang J, Liu Y, Wei Y, Xia Ja, Yu T, Zhang X, Zhang L. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study. Lancet 2020; 395(10223):507–513

[33] Yang Y, Lu Q, Liu M, Wang Y, Zhang A, Jalali N, Dean N, Longini I, Halloran ME, Xu B, Zhang X, Wang L, Liu W, Fang L. Epidemiological and clinical features of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in China. medRxiv 2020; doi: 2020.02.10.20021675

[34] The People’s Government of Hubei Province. Pooling high-quality medical resources all over the country to win the battle of preventing and controlling epidemics. February 11, 2020. (in Chinese)

[35] The China News Online Service. The number of newly confirmed cases fell for 14 consecutive days in regions outside Hubei Province in China. February 18, 2020. (in Chinese)

[36] National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China.Circular of the General Office of the National Health Commission on strengthening the guidance of epidemic prevention and control during the resumption of work. March 7, 2020.(in Chinese)

[37] National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China.Diagnosis and treatment scheme for COVID-19 (the sixth edition). February 18, 2020. (in Chinese)

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

Higher Education Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature