Dynamic mechanism for the decline of China’s energy intensity during the 11th FYP (Five-Year Plan)

Abstract

From 2006 to 2009, the aggregate energy intensity of China fell by 14.38%,<FootNote>

In December 2009, China published the outcomes of the second national economic census, according to which the actual decrease in energy intensity was 12.45% rather than 10.1% from 2006 to 2008. Because of the lack of detailed data in this census, the analysis in this paper is still based on the data published by the statistical yearbook. Thus, in this paper, the decline in the energy intensity of China is still assumed to be 10.1% from 2006 to 2008, with declines of 1.79%, 4.04%, and 4.59% in each year, respectively.

</FootNote> which means that China has made substantial progress towards its goal of achieving approximately a 20% reduction in energy intensity during the period of the 11th FYP (Five-Year Plan). This paper describes some new properties of the mechanism for the decrease in China’s energy intensity since the beginning of the 11th FYP. First, compared with the period of the 10th FYP, technical, structural, and residential energy-savings have been improved to a certain extent. Secondly, unlike the dynamic mechanism before 2000, technical energy savings have been the main driver of momentum since the beginning of the 11th FYP. Next, although structural energy savings are not the main factor, they are still a key factor for the decrease in energy intensity. Finally, residential energy savings are still a stable driver of momentum for the decline in China’s energy intensity.

Key words： energy intensity; structural energy savings; technical energy savings

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation and the Energy Foundation.

References

1 GalliR. The relationship between energy intensity and income levels: forecasting long term energy demand in Asia emerging countries. The Energy Journal1998, 19(4): 85–105

2 QuahD T. Empirics for growth and distribution: polarization, stratification, and convergence clubs. Journal of Economic Growth1997, 2(1): 27–59

3 JanickeM, MönchH, RannebergT, SimonisU E. Structural change and environmental impact: Empirical evidence on thirty-one countries in east and west. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 1989, 12(2): 99–114

4 WernickI K, HermanR, GovindS, AusubelJ H. Materialization and dematerialization: measures and trends. Daedalus, 1996, 125(3): 171–198

5 LinJ, ZhouN, LevineM, FridleyD. Taking out 1 Billion tons of CO₂: The magic of China’s 11^th FYP? Energy Policy, 2008, 36(3): 954–970

6 National Development and Reform Commission. The Medium and long-term Planning of Energy-saving. 2004, http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xwfb/t20050628_27571.htm

7 SintonJ, LevineM. Changing energy intensity in Chinese industry. Energy Policy, 1994, 22(3): 239–258

8 GarbaccioR F, HoM S, JorgensonD W. Why has the Energy-output Ratio Fallen in China. The Energy Journal, 1999, 20(3): 63–91

9 Fisher-VandenK, JeffersonG H, LiuH M, TaoQ. What is driving China’s decline in energy intensity? Resource and Energy Economics, 2004, 26(1): 77–97

10 MaC B, SternD I. China’s changing energy intensity trend: a decomposition analysis. Energy economics2008, 30(3): 1037–1053

11 KambaraT. The energy situation in China. China Quarterly, 1992, 131(5): 608–636

12 LinX N, PolenskeK R. Input-output anatomy of China’s energy use change in the 1980s. Economic Systems Research, 1995, 7(1): 67–84

13 SunJ W. Accounting for energy use in china1984-1994. Energy, 1998, 23(10): 835–849

14 HanZ Y, WeiY M, FanY. Research on China’s energy intensity and characteristics of economic structure change. Mathematical Statistics and Management, 2004, 23(1):1–6,52 (in Chinese)

15 WangC, ChenJ N, ZouJ. Decomposition of energy-related CO₂ emission in China: 1957-2000. Energy, 2005, 30(1): 73–83

16 QiZ X, ChenW Y. Restructuring or technical progress? China’s energy efficiency factor analysis after reform and Opening up, The Shanghai Economic Research2006, (6): 8–16(in Chinese)

17 WuQ S, ChengJ H. China’s intensity of energy consumption changes and factor analysis in hers industrialization: an empirical analysis based on decomposition model. Journal of finance and economics, 2006, (6): 75–85 (in Chinese)

18 LiuN, AngB W. Factors shaping aggregate energy intensity trend for industry: Energy intensity versus product mix. Energy Economics, 2007, 29(5): 609–635

19 QiZ X, ChenW Y, WuZ X. Just how high is China’s energy intensity? Quantitative and Technical Economics Research, 2007, (8): 51–58

20 HeJ K, LiuB, ZhangA L. An analysis on China’s future potential to reduce co2 emissions, Journal of Tsinghua University (Philosophy and Social Science Edition), 2002, 17(6): 75–80 (in Chinese)

21 HeJ, ZhangX. An analysis of the downward trend in energy intensity during China’s 11th FYP: how to achieve energy intensity decreased by 20% target. China Soft Science, 2006, (4): 33–38 (in Chinese)

22 ZhuY. The relation analysis between economic growth and energy in China: A discussion on the impact of structural change on energy consumption. Economic Research for Reference, 2002, (72): 26–32

23 SunJ W. Changes in energy consumption and energy intensity: A complete decomposition model. Energy Economics, 1998, 20(1): 85–100

24 DaiY D, ZhouF Q, ZhuY Z. Ways and Measures to Realize the Target Of Reducing Energy Consumption Per GDP. Beijing: China Plan Press, 2008(in Chinese)

25 QiZ X, ChenW YWuZ X. The impact of structural change between light and heavy industry on energy consumption. Chinese Industrial Economy, 2007, (2): 35–42 (in Chinese)

26 NBS. The main products of industrial production and growth rate (December 2008). 2009, http://www.stats.gov.cn/was40/gjtjj_detail_data.jsp

27 NBS. National economic and social development statistical communiqué 2008. 2009, http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjgb/ndtjgb/qgndtjgb/t20090226_402540710.htm

28 NBS. The main products of industrial production and growth rate (December 2007). 2008, http://www.stats.gov.cn/was40/gjtjj_detail_data.jsp

29 NBS. China Statistical Yearbook. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2008

30 NBS. National economic and social development statistical communiqué 2006. 2007, http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjgb/ndtjgb/qgndtjgb/t20070228_402387821.htm.

31 NBS. China Statistical Yearbook. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2007

32 NBS. China Statistical Yearbook. 2006, http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2007/indexch.htm.

33 NBS. China Statistical Yearbook. 2005, http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2006/indexch.htm

34 NBS. China Statistical Yearbook. 2004, http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2005/indexch.htm

35 NBS. China Statistical Yearbook. 2003, http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2004/indexch.htm

36 NBS. China Statistical Yearbook. 2002, http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2003/indexch.htm

37 NBS. China Statistical Yearbook. 2001, http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2002/indexch.htm

38 AngB W. Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy: which is the preferred method? Energy Policy, 2004, 32(9): 1131–1139