Situation and measures of China’s CO₂ emission mitigation after the Paris Agreement

Abstract

Global response to climate change has entered the phase of full implementation of the Paris Agreement. To control the global temperature rise below 2°C, all countries must make more efforts to reduce emission. China has combined its goal of emission reduction for combating climate change with its domestic sustainable development strategy to promote energy revolution and the transition of economic development to low-carbon patterns. Through reinforcing the commitment and action before 2020, the CO₂ intensity of GDP can decrease by more than 50% by 2020 compared with that of 2005, and the external commitment target of a 40%–45% decrease can be over fulfilled. Currently, under the new economic normal, China further strengthens the policy measure, vigorously saves energy, enhances energy use efficiency and the economic output benefit, and simultaneously develops new and renewable energy and accelerates energy structural decarbonization, so that the annual decrease rate of the CO₂ intensity of GDP keeps a high level of more than 4% and remains increasing. Thus, the decrease rate of the CO₂ intensity of GDP will exceed the GDP growth rate, and then CO₂ emission will peak around 2030. This will promote the fundamental turning of economic development mode, and lay a foundation for the establishment of a sustainable energy system with near-zero emissions and with new and renewable energy as the main body in the second half of this century. China implements the concept of green low-carbon development and accelerates the low carbon transition of energy and economy to achieve win-win results in economic growth and CO₂ emission mitigation, and these policies and actions will also provide experiences for many other developing countries. On the other hand, China will continue to play a positive and constructive leading role in the implementation of the Paris Agreement internationally, and promote the construction of new mechanisms of win-win cooperation, fairness and justice and common development for global climate governance. Moreover, China will make an effort to build a community of common destiny for mankind, promote pragmatic cooperation among countries, especially among developing countries, and take combating climate change as a new development opportunity for jointly moving toward climate-friendly low-carbon economic development path.

Key words： climate change; the Paris Agreement; energy revolution; NDC (national determined contribution) goals

Acknowledgments

This paper was supported by the Major Project “Research on Key Scientific Problems and Policies in Green Low-carbon Development and Transformation” (71690243) of the National Natural Science Foundation of China and the MOE Project of Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences at Universities “Research on the Peaking and Carbon Pricing Mechanism of Low Carbon Development in Cities” (15jjd630006).

References

1 COP 22 of the UNFCCC. The Paris Agreement (Chinese version). 2015–12–12, https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/chi/l09c.pdf (in Chinese)

2 IPCC. Climate Change 2014, AR5. Summary for Policymakers. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014

3 Nicholas S. Why Are We Waiting? —The Logic, Urgency, and Promise of Tackling Climate Change. Dalian: Dongbei University of Finance & Economics Press, 2016 (in Chinese)

4 National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China. 2017 China Statistical Yearbook. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2017 (in Chinese)

5 National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China. China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2016. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2016 (in Chinese)

6 National Development and Reform Commission. Strengthening the response to climate change—China’s national determined contribution. 2015–06–30, http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2015-06/30/content_2887330.htm (in Chinese)

7 He J K. Analysis of CO₂ emission peak: China’s objective and strategy. China Population Resources and Environment, 2013, 23(12): 1–9 (in Chinese)

8 Development Research Center of the State Council & Royal Dutch/Shell Group of Companies. Research on China’s Medium and Long Term Energy Development Strategy. Beijing: China Development Press, 2013 (in Chinese)

9 He J K. Situation of global climate governance and strategies of China’s low carbon development. Journal of China University of Geosciences (Social Science Edition), 2017, 5: 1–9 (in Chinese)

15 Pan X, Chen W, Clarke L, et al. China’s energy system transformation towards the 2°C goal: inplications of defferent effort-sharing principles. Energy Policy, 2017, 103: 116–126

10 IEA. CO₂ Emissions from Fuel Combustion. Paris: IEA publications, Rue de la Federation, 2016

11 National Development and Reform Commission & National Energy Administration. China’s Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy 2016–2030. 2016 (in Chinese)

12 Tsinghua University Building Energy Conservation Research Center. 2017 Annual Development Report on Building Energy Conservation in China. Beijing: China Architecture & Building Press, 2017 (in Chinese)

13 Institute of Comprehensive Transportation. China’s Low-Carbon Transport Development Report. Beijing: China Communications Press, 2015 (in Chinese)

16 Yin X, Chen W, Eom J, et al. China’s transportation energy consumption and CO₂ emissions from a global perspective. Energy Policy, 2015, 82: 223–248

14 Du X W. Energy revolution for sustainable future. China Population Resources and Environment, 2014, 24(7): 1–4 (in Chinese)

17 Karplus VJ, Zhang X. Incentivizing firm compliance with China’s national emissions trading system. Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, 2017, 6(2): 73–86