Estimation of environmental effects of photovoltaic generation in North-west China

Abstract

In estimating emissions reductions brought about by renewables in China, much of existing research assumes that renewables displace coal power. In this paper, this assumption is challenged and the potential environmental effects of photovoltaic (PV) power in North-west China are reevaluated when the marginal generator actually being displaced is taken into account. The annual PV power generation in the North-west Grid is estimated, in this paper, to be as high as 17900 GW·h in 2015, roughly equaling to the output of 1.5 nuclear power plants in the US today. The total associated emission reduction in 2015 will at most be 0.36 percent of SO₂ and 0.25 percent of NO_x emissions from their 2010 levels in China. Further, PV power may render no emissions reduction at all if it displaces hydropower, which is often used to meet peak demand in the North-west Grid in China. These results imply that a more cost-effective area of focus in the short-term may be on desulfurization and denitrification technologies for coal plants.

Keywords

photovoltaic (PV) / emission reduction / North-west China / marginal generator

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Acknowledgements

This project was generously supported by the Pennsylvania State University Summer Discovery Grant in 2012.

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

2014 Higher Education Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg