The perfect alliance: How regulation and technology converge to drive the implementation of Minamata Convention?

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Abstract

This study investigates a core question for global environmental governance: under international environmental treaties such as the Minamata Convention, what determines the effectiveness of a pollutant phase-out—regulatory stringency or the market readiness of technological substitutes? Using China, a major producer and consumer of mercury, as a case study, we analyze and compare the transition pathways in four regulated sectors. The results reveal a decisive pattern: in sectors such as fluorescent lamps and batteries, stringent regulations converged with the availability of cost-competitive, superior alternatives (LEDs and lithium-ion batteries). This synergy enabled rapid, market-led transitions, as evidenced by an over 85% decline in fluorescent lamp production and a 99% reduction in mercury use in batteries within a decade. By contrast, progress was slower in the production of vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) and thermometers. For VCM, strong policy mandates were constrained by the high cost and immaturity of non-mercury catalysts within the dominant coal-based process. For thermometers, the regulatory ban met profound market inertia owing to the cost and perceived reliability gaps of electronic alternatives. Applying the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) framework, this analysis demonstrates that the alignment of policy frameworks with innovation-driven market viability is critical. Successful implementation, therefore, hinges on the strategic synergy between regulation and technology. Sectors relying solely on regulatory ambition without viable substitutes lag significantly, offering fundamental lessons for global efforts to eliminate persistent pollutants.

Graphical abstract

Highlight

	● Mercury phase-out drivers in key sectors are analyzed using the MLP framework.
	● Hg use in lighting and batteries declined sharply due to technological advances.
	● Lack of viable substitutes slows Hg reduction in VCM and medical device sectors.
	● Policy-technology synergy is decisive for successful convention implementation.

CHANGE HISTORY

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