Pathways towards carbon emission peaking in megacities in China

Abstract

Achieving carbon peak at the city level is crucial for China in the context of its carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Here we established a framework based on MRIO and SDA to investigate the stages, pathways, and key driving factors associated with carbon peaking processes in four Chinese megacities from 2007 to 2017. Our result reveals three-stage evolutionary pathways for urban carbon peaking. In the early stage, declining energy intensity is the main driver of emission reductions, while energy structure changes have limited effects. From 2012 to 2017, lower energy intensity cut emissions by 35.2 Mt in Beijing, 89.4 Mt in Tianjin, 97.5 Mt in Shanghai, and 72.9 Mt in Chongqing. As efficiency gains diminished, accelerating energy structure adjustment toward cleaner energy became crucial, further reducing emissions by 8.2 Mt in Beijing, 5.3 Mt in Tianjin, and 2.9 Mt in Chongqing. The second stage is characterized by industrial transfer, revealing three interregional transfer patterns: emissions-only shifts, simultaneous shifts of emissions and economic benefits, and limited outsourcing. However, this spatial redistribution alone fails to address carbon challenges fundamentally. Consequently, transferring regions must pursue industrial upgrading, marking the third stage, which is dominated by the structural transformation of industries. The transition from traditional manufacturing to strategic emerging manufacturing and services not only reduces total carbon emissions but also enhances economic benefits and job opportunities. The three-stage pathway identified in this study provides valuable guidance for achieving carbon peak at both city and national levels in China.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

Carbon peak / Megacities / Structural Decomposition Analysis / Multi–Region Input–Output model / Pathways

Highlight

	● Three-stage pathway with four drivers: intensity, structure, transfer, upgrading.
	● Quantifies stage-wise emission cuts across the four cities.
	● Four megacities show three interregional transfer patterns.
	● Structural upgrading lowers emissions and improves economic and job outcomes.
	● Provides transferable guidance for cities yet to peak.

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