Long-term exposure to PM_2.5 components and mortality in 237 Chinese cities: a modelling study

Abstract

Evidence on the lagged effects of long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) components is limited. Data on air pollution, meteorology, population health and socioeconomic status were collected from 237 major cities in China between 2015 and 2019. The differences-in-differences model was established to analyze the lagged effects of the annual mean concentration of PM_2.5 components on mortality. The PM_2.5 component-mortality associations exhibited long-term lag patterns, with statistically significantly at lag 2 and lag 3 yr. During the cumulative lags of 0–3 yr, each inter-quartile range increase in exposure to EC, OC, SO₄^2–, NO₃^–, and NH₄⁺, total mortality risk increased by 9% (RR=1.09; 95%CI: 1.02, 1.16), 8% (RR=1.08; 95%CI: 1.01, 1.15), 16% (RR=1.16; 95%CI: 1.07, 1.25), 22% (RR=1.22; 95%CI: 1.08, 1.38), and 16% (RR=1.16; 95%CI: 1.04, 1.29), respectively. Additionally, the observed associations between PM_2.5 components and mortality risks were much stronger among the high-longitude (eastern) regions, as well as areas with high air pressure and high GDP per capita. These findings may help provide critical implication for formulating a multi-domain cooperative control strategies on PM_2.5 components.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

PM _2.5 components / Long-term exposure / Mortality / Lagged effects / Causal inference

Highlight

	● The PM2.5 component-mortality associations exhibited long-term lag patterns.
	● PM2.5 component-mortality associations exhibited J-shaped patterns.
	● Higher longitude, air pressure, and GDP per capita areas suffered greatly.

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