Decarbonizing inland waterway transport: scenario analysis and mitigation strategy for Jiangxi Province, 2019–2050

Abstract

China’s inland waterway transport sector is facing the challenge of achieving carbon neutrality goals amidst its rapid development. However, the carbon mitigation potential of targeted interventions within inland waterway transport networks remains poorly understood. We construct a port-to-port carbon emission inventory for the inland waterway transport sector from 2019 to 2050. Jiangxi province, a typical dynamically developing region, is selected as the study area given its plans for the large-scale construction of new inland waterways in the future. Our results reveal that while waterway optimization improves cargo transport efficiency, it may lead to higher carbon emissions by 2030. However, with intensified mitigation efforts, it can contribute to significant emission reductions by 2050. In terms of strategic interventions, prioritizing transport technology upgrades (e.g., improve energy efficiency) in the short-term, while transitioning to alternative fuels in the long-term, could reduce to 0.76 Mt emissions by 2050, representing a 72% decrease compared to 2019 levels. Our findings from the typical complex waterway transport network in China offer valuable insights for managing carbon emissions in inland waterways globally, especially in regions contemplating the expansion of their inland waterway systems.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

Carbon mitigation / Emission inventory / Scenario analysis / Inland waterway / Transport development

Highlight

	● Developed an inland waterway CO2 mitigation roadmap for Jiangxi, China.
	● Emissions increase to 4.43 Mt by 2030 due to shipping development.
	● Under maximum efforts, emissions could decline to 0.76 Mt by 2050.

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