Analysis and prediction of the influence of energy utilization on air quality in Beijing

Abstract

This work evaluates the influence of energy consumption on the future air quality in Beijing, using 2000 as the base year and 2008 as the target year. It establishes the emission inventory of primary PM₁₀, SO₂ and NO_x related to energy utilization in eight areas of Beijing. The air quality model was adopted to simulate the temporal and spatial distribution of each pollutant concentration in the eight urban areas. Their emission, concentration distribution, and sectoral share responsibility rate were analyzed, and air quality in 2008 was predicted. The industrial sector contributed above 40% of primary PM₁₀ and SO₂ resulting from energy consumption, while vehicles accounted for about 65% of NO_x. According to the current policy and development trend, air quality in the eight urban areas could become better in 2008 when the average concentrations of primary PM₁₀, SO₂ and NO₂ related to energy utilization at each monitored site are predicted to be about 25, 50 and 51 μg/m³, respectively.