Sectoral linkages and drivers of water-use change under tourism-led service-sector transformation in Hainan, China

Abstract

As an international tourism and consumption center, Hainan has developed and increasingly service-oriented, and water intensive economy, especially the rapid demand growth from the tertiary-sector. However, previous studies have assessed tertiary-sector water demand in aggregate, with limited attention to tourism-specific economic linkages, supply-chain water-use intensity, and the drivers of tourism-related sectors. To address this gap, this study uses the input-output (IO) analysis with the IO tables of Hainan (year 2007, 2017) to examine inter-sectoral economic linkages and estimate water-use intensity from the consumption perspective. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) is employed to further quantify the drivers of tertiary-sector water consumption over 2008–2024. Our results show that the tertiary industry became increasingly important in Hainan’s economy growth, with its influence coefficient increased from 0.83 in 2007 to 1.039 in 2017. However, its water-use intensity in 2017 was about 5.86 times that of the secondary-industry. Over 2008–2024, tourism expansion was the biggest contributor to the net increase in tertiary-sector water use (145.30%), followed by industrial structure (80.26%), the resident to visitor ratio (78.42%), and the investment-output relationship (26.10%). These increases were offset by the water-use intensity and per-capita facility coverage effects, which contributed −128.51% and −101.57% of the net increase, respectively. These findings highlight the need for differentiated water-management policies in Hainan, particularly prioritize managing tourism expansion and improving water-use efficiency rather than adjusting the tertiary sector’s share of the economy.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

water demand / tourism industry / input-output analysis / LMDI decomposition / Hainan province

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