Change of global precipitation during strong El Niño under high-emission scenarios

Abstract

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant climate mode on an interannual timescale and is teleconnected to synoptic extremes. In this study, we investigated changes in precipitation anomalies in key regions around the globe during strong Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events under two high-emission scenarios (RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and phase 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6). The model projections revealed a discrepancy in the pattern of the precipitation anomalies between CMIP5 and CMIP6 when compared with observations. The model consensus on the features of these precipitation anomalies, however, indicated that for the majority of key regions, an increase in the frequency and standard deviation of severe events reflected the intensified atmospheric instability induced by strong EP events under global warming. The precipitation anomalies were enhanced over most of the low-latitude areas compared with the historical results, whereas anomalies in the midlatitude areas were more complex and not completely consistent with the signs of historical anomalies. The moisture budget indicated that the impact of moisture transport played an important role in triggering changes in precipitation anomalies for most of the low-latitude regions. We inferred that the low-latitude regions were more vulnerable to the influence of water vapor, suggesting a thermodynamic effect response to global warming during EP events. The midlatitude regions tended to be influenced by the effect of circulation anomalies or dynamic processes. Overall, the strong EP events under the high-emission scenario likely generated more complex and stronger teleconnections at a global scale.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

ENSO / precipitation anomaly / high emission experiments / moisture budget / thermodynamic effect

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