Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture system in China: historical dynamics and key drivers

Abstract

Agriculture is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To clarify long-term trends and drivers, we estimate provincial agricultural GHG emissions in China from 2000–2020 using a life-cycle assessment (LCA) framework and apply Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition. Total emissions rose 10.71% (1250.96→1384.99 Mt), peaking in 2017 before declining. Across sources, agri-materials and manure management were the largest contributors in cropping and livestock systems, respectively. LMDI attributes emissions growth primarily to agricultural development, while improvements in emissions intensity offset part of this increase; urbanization generally exerted a smaller positive effect, and labor reductions dampened emissions. Regional heterogeneity is pronounced: northern (Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi) and central (Henan, Hubei) provinces show fluctuating increases; the north-east exhibits steady growth; and the south-west (Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou) shows a fluctuating decline. These results highlight the need for region-specific mitigation strategies, emphasizing input efficiency, manure management, and structural adjustments to advance low-carbon agricultural development.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

agricultural greenhouse gas emissions / life-cycle assessment / LMDI decomposition / China / crop-livestock systems / regional heterogeneity

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