Responses of runoffs and sediment yields in a river basin to land cover/use changes under extreme conditions based on the SWAT model

Abstract

This study employs the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the dynamics of runoff and sediment in the Fuhe River Basin of Poyang Lake. After calibration and validation, the model's coefficient of determination (R²) for both runoff and sediment yield exceeded 0.9, indicating high model accuracy. During the study period from 2001 to 2010, the cropland area in the Fuhe River Basin decreased by 195.9 km², while forest and urban land areas increased by 105.4 km² and 86.1 km², respectively. By inputting the multi-year LULC data from 2001 to 2010 into the SWAT model, we assessed the impact of LULC changes on the multi-year water and sediment yields of the Fuhe River Basin. The results showed annual differences in water and sediment yields, both below 10 mm and 2 t/ha², respectively. At the sub-basin scale, LULC changes had a significant impact on water and sediment yields. Under the 2010 baseline landuse scenario, the simulated runoff and sediment yields were 837.11 m³/s and 4.32 × 10⁶ t, respectively. Compared to the baseline scenario, the reforestation scenario resulted in reductions in water and sediment yields by −1.0% and −11.6%, respectively. In contrast, the agricultural development scenario exacerbated soil erosion, leading to increases in water and sediment yields by 5.0% and 37.2%, respectively. On a seasonal timescale, results indicated that compared to the baseline scenario, the five extreme landuse scenarios led to increases in runoff and sediment yields in spring and winter by 11.3% and 162.6%, respectively, which were higher than the increases in summer and autumn of 3.0% and 150.0%, respectively, indicating a more significant impact of LULC changes in spring and winter.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

SWAT / SUFI-2 / landuse change / runoff and sediment

References

[1] Abbaspour K C, Vaghefi S A, Srinivasan R (2017). A guideline for successful calibration and uncertainty analysis for soil and water assessment: a review of papers from the 2016 International SWAT Conference.Water, 10(1): 6

[2] Abbaspour K C, Yang J, Maximov I, Siber R, Bogner K, Mieleitner J, Zobrist J, Srinivasan R (2007). Modelling hydrology and water quality in the pre-alpine/alpine Thur watershed using SWAT.J Hydrol (Amst), 333(2−4): 413–430

[3] Aghsaei H, Mobarghaee Dinan N, Moridi A, Asadolahi Z, Delavar M, Fohrer N, Wagner P D (2020). Effects of dynamic land use/land cover change on water resources and sediment yield in the Anzali wetland catchment, Gilan, Iran.Sci Total Environ, 712: 136449

[4] Ahiablame L, Shakya R (2016). Modeling flood reduction effects of low impact development at a watershed scale.J Environ Manage, 171: 81–91

[5] Allen R G, Jensen M E, Wright J L, Burman R D (1989). Operational estimates of reference evapotranspiration.Agron J, 81(4): 650–662

[6] Anand J, Gosain A K, Khosa R (2018). Prediction of land use changes based on Land Change Modeler and attribution of changes in the water balance of Ganga basin to land use change using the SWAT model.Sci Total Environ, 644: 503–519

[7] Arnold J G, Srinivasan R, Muttiah R S, Williams J R (1998). Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment part l: model development.J Am Water Resour Assoc, 34(1): 73–89

[8] Ashagrie A G, de Laat P J, de Wit M J, Tu M, Uhlenbrook S (2006). Detecting the influence of land use changes on discharges and floods in the Meuse River Basin–the predictive power of a ninety-year rainfall-runoff relation.Hydrol Earth Syst Sci, 10(5): 691–701

[9] Ashraf Vaghefi S, Mousavi S J, Abbaspour K C, Srinivasan R, Yang H (2014). Analyses of the impact of climate change on water resources components, drought and wheat yield in semiarid regions: Karkheh River Basin in Iran.Hydrol Processes, 28(4): 2018–2032

[10] Bennour A, Jia L, Menenti M, Zheng C, Zeng Y, Barnieh B A, Jiang M (2023). Assessing impacts of climate variability and land use/land cover change on the water balance components in the Sahel using Earth observations and hydrological modelling.J Hydrol Reg Stud, 47: 101370

[11] Bieger K, Hörmann G, Fohrer N (2015). The impact of land use change in the Xiangxi Catchment (China) on water balance and sediment transport.Reg Environ Change, 15(3): 485–498

[12] de Oliveira Serrão E A, Silva M T, Ferreira T R, Paiva de Ataide L C, Assis dos Santos C, Meiguins de Lima A M, de Paulo Rodrigues da Silva V, de Assis Salviano de Sousa F, Cardoso Gomes D J (2022). Impacts of land use and land cover changes on hydrological processes and sediment yield determined using the SWAT model.Int J Sediment Res, 37(1): 54–69

[13] Dwarakish G S, Ganasri B P (2015). Impact of land use change on hydrological systems: a review of current modeling approaches.Cogent Geosci, 1(1): 1115691

[14] Elfert S, Bormann H (2010). Simulated impact of past and possible future land use changes on the hydrological response of the Northern German lowland “Hunte” catchment.J Hydrol (Amst), 383(3−4): 245–255

[15] Fohrer N, Haverkamp S, Eckhardt K, Frede H G (2001). Hydrologic response to land use changes on the catchment scale. Phys Chem Earth, Part B Hydrol Oceans Atmos, 26(7−8): 577–582

[16] Getachew B, Manjunatha B R (2022). Impacts of land‐use change on the hydrology of Lake Tana Basin, Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia.Glob Chall, 6(8): 2200041

[17] Gong L, Zhang X, Pan G, Zhao J, Zhao Y (2023). Hydrological responses to co-impacts of climate change and land use/cover change based on CMIP6 in the Ganjiang River, Poyang Lake basin.Anthropocene, 41: 100368

[18] Guo H, Hu Q, Jiang T (2008). Annual and seasonal streamflow responses to climate and land-cover changes in the Poyang Lake Basin, China.J Hydrol (Amst), 355(1−4): 106–122

[19] Li P, Li H, Yang G, Zhang Q, Diao Y (2018). Assessing the hydrologic impacts of land use change in the Taihu Lake Basin of China from 1985 to 2010.Water, 10(11): 1512

[20] Liu W, Wu J, Xu F, Mu D, Zhang P (2024). Modeling the effects of land use/land cover changes on river runoff using SWAT models: a case study of the Danjiang River source area, China.Environ Res, 242: 117810

[21] Liu Y, Wu G, Fan X, Gan G, Wang W, Liu Y (2022a). Hydrological impacts of land use/cover changes in the Lake Victoria basin.Ecol Indic, 145: 109580

[22] Liu Y, Xu Y, Zhao Y, Long Y (2022b). Using SWAT Model to assess the impacts of land use and climate changes on flood in the Upper Weihe River, China.Water, 14(13): 2098

[23] Lu J, Liu Z, Liu W, Chen X, Zhang L (2020). Assessment of CFSR and CMADS weather data for capturing extreme hydrologic events in the Fuhe River Basin of the Poyang Lake.J Am Water Resour Assoc, 56(5): 917–934

[24] Ma H, Zhong L, Fu Y, Cheng M, Wang X, Cheng M, Chang Y (2023). A study on hydrological responses of the Fuhe River Basin to combined effects of land use and climate change.J Hydrol Reg Stud, 48: 101476

[25] Mao D, Cherkauer K A (2009). Impacts of land-use change on hydrologic responses in the Great Lakes region.J Hydrol (Amst), 374(1−2): 71–82

[26] McKay M D, Beckman R, Conover W (1979). A comparison of three methods for selecting values of input variables in the analysis of output from a computer code.Technometrics, 21: 239–245

[27] Moriasi D, Arnold J, Liew M, Bingner R, Harmel R D, Veith T L (2007). Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations.Trans ASABE, 50(3): 885–900

[28] Mundetia N, Sharma D, Sharma A, Dubey S K, Mitra B K, Dasgupta R, Jeong H (2023). Assessment of hydrological response with an integrated approach of climate, land, and water for sustainable water resources in the Khari River Basin, India.Anthropocene, 41: 100373

[29] Nkwasa A, Chawanda C J, van Griensven A (2022). Regionalization of the SWAT+ model for projecting climate change impacts on sediment yield: an application in the Nile Basin.J Hydrol Reg Stud, 42: 101152

[30] Rogger M, Agnoletti M, Alaoui A, Bathurst J C, Bodner G, Borga M, Chaplot V, Gallart F, Glatzel G, Hall J, Holden J, Holko L, Horn R, Kiss A, Kohnová S, Leitinger G, Lennartz B, Parajka J, Perdigão R, Peth S, Plavcová L, Quinton J N, Robinson M, Salinas J L, Santoro A, Szolgay J, Tron S, van den Akker J J H, Viglione A, Blöschl G (2017). Land use change impacts on floods at the catchment scale: challenges and opportunities for future research.Water Resour Res, 53(7): 5209–5219

[31] Shukla S, Meshesha T W, Sen I S, Bol R, Bogena H, Wang J (2023). Assessing impacts of land use and land cover (LULC) change on stream flow and runoff in Rur Basin, Germany.Sustainability (Basel), 15(12): 9811

[32] Tao C, Chen X, Lu J, Gassman P W, Sabine S, José-Miguel S P (2015). Assessing impacts of different land use scenarios on water budget of Fuhe River, China using SWAT model.Int J Agric Biol Eng, 8: 95–109

[33] Teklay A, Dile Y T, Setegn S G, Demissie S S, Asfaw D H (2019). Evaluation of static and dynamic land use data for watershed hydrologic process simulation: a case study in Gummara Watershed, Ethiopia.Catena, 172: 65–75

[34] Verburg P H, Schot P P, Dijst M J, Veldkamp A (2004). Land use change modelling: current practice and research priorities.GeoJournal, 61(4): 309–324

[35] Wagner P D, Bhallamudi S M, Narasimhan B, Kantakumar L N, Sudheer K P, Kumar S, Schneider K, Fiener P (2016). Dynamic integration of land use changes in a hydrologic assessment of a rapidly developing Indian catchment.Sci Total Environ, 539: 153–164

[36] Wang Q, Liu R, Men C, Guo L, Miao Y (2018). Effect of dynamic land use inputs on improvement of SWAT model performance and uncertainty analysis of outputs.J Hydrol (Amst), 563: 874–886

[37] Yang J, Huang X (2021). The 30 m annual land cover dataset and its dynamics in China from 1990 to 2019.Earth Syst Sci Data, 13(8): 3907–3925

[38] Yi H, Zhang X, He L, He J, Tian Q, Zou Y, An Z (2023). Detecting the impact of the “Grain for Green” program on land use/land cover and hydrological regimes in a watershed of the Chinese Loess Plateau over the next 30 years.Ecol Indic, 150: 110181

[39] Younis S M Z, Ammar A (2018). Quantification of impact of changes in land use land cover on hydrology in the upper Indus Basin, Pakistan.Egypt J Remote Sens Space Sci, 21(3): 255–263

[40] Zhang J, Ross M (2015). Hydrologic modeling impacts of post-mining land use changes on streamflow of Peace River, Florida.Chin Geogr Sci, 25(6): 728–738

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

Higher Education Press