Quantifying both climate and land use/cover changes on runoff variation in Han River basin, China

Abstract

Climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC) can both exert great impacts on the generation processes of precipitation and runoff. However, previous studies usually neglected considering the contribution component of future LUCC in evaluating changes in hydrological cycles. In this study, an integrated framework is developed to quantify and partition the impact of climate change and LUCC on future runoff evolution. First, a daily bias correction (DBC) method and the Cellular Automaton-Markov (CA-Markov) model are used to project future climate and LUCC scenarios, and then future runoff is simulated by the calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model with different climate and LUCC scenarios. Finally, the uncertainty of future runoff and the contribution rate of the two driving factors are systematically quantified. The Han River basin in China was selected as a case study. Results indicate that: 1) both climate change and LUCC will contribute to future runoff intensification, the variation of future runoff under combined climate and LUCC is larger than these under climate change or LUCC alone; 2) the projected uncertainty of median value of multi-models under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) will reach 18.14% (20.34%), 12.18% (14.71%), 11.01% (13.95%), and 11.41% (14.34%) at Baihe, Ankang, Danjiangkou, and Huangzhuang stations, respectively; 3) the contribution rate of climate change to runoff at Baihe, Ankang, Danjiangkou, and Huangzhuang stations under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) are 91%–98% (84%–94%), while LUCC to runoff under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) only accounts for 2%–9% (6%–16%) in the annual scale. This study may provide useful adaptive strategies for policymakers on future water resources planning and management.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

climate change / LUCC / runoff response / uncertainty analysis / contribution rate

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. U20A20317 and 51539009). The authors would like to thank Mingxi Shen for his comments, and for the editor and anonymous reviewers that helped improve the quality of the paper.

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