Prediction of trend between water environment pollution of D lake and death rate of malignancy in population

Abstract

Grey system analysis method was used to study the correlation between water pollution in D Lake area and death rate of malignancy with death rate of malignancy as effect sequence and a variety of water pollution index as factor sequence. On the basis of grey correlation analysis, grey system predication model was established for death rate of malignancy in population in D Lake area including GM_{(1, N)} model for death rate of malignancy [MR_(t+1)=(9.9987E₁+5.0001E₂+10.8994E₃+1.1114E₄+165.1029) · e^−0.0070t−9.9987E₁−5.0001E₂−10.8994E₃−1.1114E₄] and GM_{(1. 1)} model for related factors [E_1(t+1)=52.1214−46.9468e−0.0058t, E_2(t+1)=4.6114−4.5664e^0.0015t, E_3(t+1)=1.1389−1.1212e^0.0065t, E_4(t+1)=554.5867−549.8006e^0.0016t], and the trend of death rate of malignancy from 2000 to 2010 was predicted.

Keywords

death rate of malignancy / grey system / water environment pollution

References

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