# Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering

 Front. Struct. Civ. Eng.    2019, Vol. 13 Issue (5) : 1007-1019     https://doi.org/10.1007/s11709-019-0521-y
 RESEARCH ARTICLE
Risk-based probabilistic thermal-stress analysis of concrete arch dams
1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran 1411713116, Iran
2. Department of Civil Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran 1983969411, Iran
 Download: PDF(1020 KB)   HTML Export: BibTeX | EndNote | Reference Manager | ProCite | RefWorks
 Abstract The probabilistic risk of arch dam failure under thermal loading is studied. The incorporated uncertainties, which are defined as random variables, are associated with the most affecting structural (material) properties of concrete and thermal loading conditions. Karaj arch dam is selected as case study. The dam is numerically modeled along with its foundation in three-dimensional space; the temperature and thermal stress distribution is investigated during the operating phase. The deterministic thermal finite element analysis of the dam is combined with the structural reliability methods in order to obtain thermal response predictions, and estimate the probability of failure in the risk analysis context. The tensile overstressing failure mode is considered for the reliability analysis. The thermal loading includes ambient air and reservoir temperature variations. The effect of solar radiation is considered by an increase in the ambient temperatures. Three reliability methods are employed: the first-order second-moment method, the first-order reliability method, and the Monte-Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling. The estimated failure probabilities are discussed and the sensitivity of random variables is investigated. Although most of the studies in this line of research are used only for academic purposes, the results of this investigation can be used for both academic and engineering purposes. Corresponding Authors: Mohammad ALEMBAGHERI Online First Date: 04 March 2019    Issue Date: 11 September 2019
 Cite this article: Narjes SOLTANI,Mohammad ALEMBAGHERI,Mohammad Houshmand KHANEGHAHI. Risk-based probabilistic thermal-stress analysis of concrete arch dams[J]. Front. Struct. Civ. Eng., 2019, 13(5): 1007-1019. URL: http://journal.hep.com.cn/fsce/EN/10.1007/s11709-019-0521-y http://journal.hep.com.cn/fsce/EN/Y2019/V13/I5/1007
 Fig.1  (a) Aerial view of Karaj arch dam; (b) finite element mesh of the dam and its foundation Tab.1  Random variables related to the structural system properties Tab.2  Independent random variables related to the environmental actions Fig.2  FOSM Pf - ft plot Fig.3  FOSM importance measures for random variables of: (a) structural system properties; (b) thermal loading parameters Fig.4  Contour of exceedance probability from the FOSM for ft = 2 MPa: (a) upstream face; (b) downstream face Fig.5  FORM Pf– ft plot. In legend, the numbers in parentheses show the number of random variables Fig.6  Components of the FORM’s α-vectors for random variables of: (a) structural system properties; (b) thermal loading parameters Fig.7  Histograms of MC-LHS simulations along with the best distribution fit, its mean and standard deviation (STDEV): (a) 1000 samples; (b) 2000 samples; (c) 4000 samples. The horizontal axis is the concrete tensile strength Fig.8  MC-LHS Pf - ft plots for 1000, 2000; and 4000 samples Fig.9  MC-LHS Pf - ft plots for 30, 7, and 5 random variables (R.V.) with 1000 samples Fig.10  Comparison of Pf - ft curves obtained from the FOSM, FORM, and MC-LHS methods considering 30 random variables
 1 U.S. Army Corps of Engineering. Engineering and Design: Arch dam design, Engineer manual 1110-2-2201, 1994 2 M Wieland, G F Kirchen. Long-term dam safety monitoring of Punt dal Gall arch dam in Switzerland. Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering, 2012, 6(1): 76–83 3 F Sheibany, M Ghaemian. Effects of environmental action on thermal stress analysis of Karaj concrete arch dam. Journal of Engineering Mechanics, 2006, 132(5): 532–544 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9399(2006)132:5(532) 4 L Agullo, A Aguado. Thermal behavior of concrete dams due to environmental actions. Dam Engineering, 1995, VI(1): 3–21 5 M Daoud, N Galanis, G Ballivy. Calculation of the periodic temperature field in a concrete dam. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 1997, 24(5): 772–784 https://doi.org/10.1139/l97-020 6 P Léger, J Venturelli, S S Bhattacharjee. Seasonal temperature and stress distributions in concrete gravity dams (Parts I and II). Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 1993, 20(6): 999–1017 https://doi.org/10.1139/l93-131 7 T Meyer, L Mouvet. Behavior analysis of the Vieux-Emosson arch gravity dam under thermal loads. Dam Engineering, 1995, VI(4): 275–292 8 Z Zhang, V K Garga. State of temperature and thermal stress in mass concrete structures subjected to thermal shock. Dam Engineering, 1996, VIII(4): 336–350 9 F Jin, Z Chen, J Wang, J Yang. Practical procedure for predicting non-uniform temperature on the exposed face of arch dams. Applied Thermal Engineering, 2010, 30(14–15): 2146–2156 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2010.05.027 10 C Bernier, J E Padgett, J Proulx, P Paultre. Seismic fragility of concrete gravity dams with spatial variation of angle of friction: case study. Journal of Structural Engineering, 2016, 142(5): 05015002 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0001441 11 N Vu-Bac, T Lahmer, X Zhuang, T Nguyen-Thoi, T Rabczuk. A software framework for probabilistic sensitivity analysis for computationally expensive models. Advances in Engineering Software, 2016, 100: 19–31 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advengsoft.2016.06.005 12 N Vu-Bac, M Silani, T Lahmer, X Zhuang, T Rabczuk. A unified framework for stochastic predictions of mechanical properties of polymeric nanocomposites. Computational Materials Science, 2015, 96: 520–535 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.commatsci.2014.04.066 13 K M Hamdia, M Silani, X Zhuang, P He, T Rabczuk. Stochastic analysis of the fracture toughness of polymeric nanoparticle composites using polynomial chaos expansions. International Journal of Fracture, 2017, 206(2): 215–227 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10704-017-0210-6 14 N Vu-Bac, T Lahmer, H Keitel, J Zhao, X Zhuang, T Rabczuk. Stochastic predictions of bulk properties of amorphous polyethylene based on molecular dynamics simulations. Mechanics of Materials, 2014, 68: 70–84 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mechmat.2013.07.021 15 N Vu-Bac, T Lahmer, Y Zhang, X Zhuang, T Rabczuk. Stochastic predictions of interfacial characteristic of polymeric nanocomposites (PNCs). Composites Part B, Engineering, 2014, 59: 80–95 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compositesb.2013.11.014 16 L Altarejos-García, I Escuder-Bueno, A Serrano-Lombillo, M G de Membrillera-Ortuño. Methodology for estimating the probability of failure by sliding in concrete gravity dams in the context of risk analysis. Structural Safety, 2012, 36–37: 1–13 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2012.01.001 17 N Vu-Bac, R Rafiee, X Zhuang, T Lahmer, T Rabczuk. Uncertainty quantification for multiscale modeling of polymer nanocomposites with correlated parameters. Composites Part B, Engineering, 2015, 68: 446–464 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compositesb.2014.09.008 18 A B Liel, C B Haselton, G G Deierlein, J W Baker. Incorporating modeling uncertainties in the assessment of seismic collapse risk of buildings. Structural Safety, 2009, 31(2): 197–211 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2008.06.002 19 M Luísa, B Farinha, J V de Lemos, E M Neves. Analysis of foundation sliding of an arch dam considering the hydromechanical behavior. Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering, 2012, 6(1): 35–43 20 P Raychowdhury, S Jindal. Shallow foundation response variability due to soil and model parameter uncertainty. Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering, 2014, 8(3): 237–251 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11709-014-0242-1 21 N A Nariman, T Lahmer, P Karampour. Uncertainty quantification of stability and damage detection parameters of coupled hydrodynamic-ground motion in concrete gravity dams. Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering, doi: 10.1007/s11709-018-0462-x 22 T Haukaas, A Der Kiureghian. Parameter sensitivity and importance measures in nonlinear finite element reliability analysis. Journal of Engineering Mechanics, 2005, 131(10): 1013–1026 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9399(2005)131:10(1013) 23 D Val, F Bljuger, D Yankelevsky. Reliability evaluation in nonlinear analysis of reinforced concrete structures. Structural Safety, 1997, 19(2): 203–217 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-4730(96)00025-2 24 M D Mckay, R J Beckman, W J Conover. Comparison of three methods for selecting values of input variables in the analysis of output from a computer code. Technometrics, 2000, 42(1): 55–61 https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.2000.10485979 25 J N Reddy, D K Gartling. The Finite-element Method in Heat Transfer and Fluid Dynamics. Boca Raton: CRC, 2001, 5–108 26 R Iman. Latin hypercube sampling. In: Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences. Wiley: New York. 1980 https://doi.org/10.1002/0471667196.ess1084.pub2. 27 R E Melchers. Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction. 2nd ed. JohnWiley & Sons, 1999 28 W C Broding, F W Diederich, P S Parker. Structural optimization and design based on a reliability design criterion. Journal of Spacecraft, 1964, 1(1): 56–61 https://doi.org/10.2514/3.27592 29 S S Chauhan, D S Bowles. Dam safety risk assessment with uncertainty analysis. ANCOLD Bulletin, 2004, 73–88 30 C B Haselton. Assessing seismic collapse safety of modern reinforced concrete frame buildings. Dissertation for the Doctoral Degree. San Francisco: Stanford University, 2006 31 EPRI (Electrical Power Research Institute). Uplift pressures, shear strengths, and tensile strengths for stability analysis of concrete gravity dams. Report No. EPRI TR-100345, 1992 32 K Y Lo, B Lukajic, S Wang, T Ogawa, K K Tsui. Evaluation of strength parameters of concrete-rock interface for dam safety assessment. In: Canadian Dam Safety Conf, Toronto: Canadian Dam Association, 1990, 71–94 33 K Champagne, P Rivard, P M Quirion. Shear strength parameters of concrete gravity dams in Quebec. In: CDA 2013 Annual Conf. Toronto: Canadian Dam Association, 2012 34 Bureau of Reclamation. Guidelines for achieving public protection in dam safety decision making. Technical report. 2003 35 Australian Committee on Large Dams. Guidelines on risk assessment, 2003 36 Munger D F, D S, BowlesBoyer D D, D W, Davis D A, Margo D A Moser , P J Regan , N Snorteland . Interim tolerable risk guidelines for US Army Corps of Engineering dams, 2009
Related articles from Frontiers Journals