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Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering

Front. Struct. Civ. Eng.    2020, Vol. 14 Issue (5) : 1247-1261     https://doi.org/10.1007/s11709-020-0655-y
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Probabilistic stability analysis of Bazimen landslide with monitored rainfall data and water level fluctuations in Three Gorges Reservoir, China
Wengang ZHANG1,2,3, Libin TANG1, Hongrui LI1, Lin WANG1(), Longfei CHENG4, Tingqiang ZHOU4, Xiang CHEN4
1. School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China
2. Key Laboratory of New Technology for Construction of Cities in Mountain Area, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China
3. National Joint Engineering Research Center of Geohazards Prevention in the Reservoir Areas, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China
4. School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing Three Gorges University, Chongqing 404100, China
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Abstract

Landslide is a common geological hazard in reservoir areas and may cause great damage to local residents’ life and property. It is widely accepted that rainfall and periodic variation of water level are the two main factors triggering reservoir landslides. In this study, the Bazimen landslide located in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) was back-analyzed as a case study. Based on the statistical features of the last 3-year monitored data and field instrumentations, the landslide susceptibility in an annual cycle and four representative periods was investigated via the deterministic and probabilistic analysis, respectively. The results indicate that the fluctuation of the reservoir water level plays a pivotal role in inducing slope failures, for the minimum stability coefficient occurs at the rapid decline period of water level. The probabilistic analysis results reveal that the initial sliding surface is the most important area influencing the occurrence of landslide, compared with other parts in the landslide. The seepage calculations from probabilistic analysis imply that rainfall is a relatively inferior factor affecting slope stability. This study aims to provide preliminary guidance on risk management and early warning in the TGR area.

Keywords reliability analysis      Bazimen landslide      rainfall      reservoir water level      slope stability     
Corresponding Author(s): Lin WANG   
Just Accepted Date: 31 August 2020   Online First Date: 15 October 2020    Issue Date: 16 November 2020
 Cite this article:   
Wengang ZHANG,Libin TANG,Hongrui LI, et al. Probabilistic stability analysis of Bazimen landslide with monitored rainfall data and water level fluctuations in Three Gorges Reservoir, China[J]. Front. Struct. Civ. Eng., 2020, 14(5): 1247-1261.
 URL:  
http://journal.hep.com.cn/fsce/EN/10.1007/s11709-020-0655-y
http://journal.hep.com.cn/fsce/EN/Y2020/V14/I5/1247
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Wengang ZHANG
Libin TANG
Hongrui LI
Lin WANG
Longfei CHENG
Tingqiang ZHOU
Xiang CHEN
Fig.1  Topographical map of the Bazimen landslide, with monitoring points [2]. (Reprinted from Engineering Geology, 218, Huang F M, Huang J S, Jiang S H, Zhou C B, Landslide displacement prediction based on multivariate chaotic model and extreme learning machine, 1327–1354, Copyright 2017, with permission from Elsevier.)
Fig.2  Schematic geological cross-section1 1'of the Bazimen landslide.
Fig.3  Reservoir water level, rainfall and accumulated displacement at location ZG110 and ZG111 in the Bazimen landslide.
materials saturated density (kg/m3) effective cohesion (kPa) internal friction force COV
silty clay 2070 32.4 22.2° 0.05
0.10
0.20
rubble soil 2530 35.1 24.8°
initial sliding surface 2250 17.6 19.0°
secondary sliding surface 2088 23.3 19.7°
Tab.1  Physical and mechanical properties of soil materials
materials saturated permeability coefficient (m/s) saturated volatile water content residual volatile water content air-entry value (kPa) n m
silty clay 2.27E–06 0.43 0.02 20 1.41 0.29078
rubble soil 1.64E–06 0.37 0.05 20 1.56 0.358974
initial sliding surface 5.79E–07 0.35 0.06 100 1.23 0.186992
secondary sliding surface 6.48E–07 0.33 0.04 100 1.21 0.173554
Tab.2  Hydraulic parameters of the Bazimen landslide model
Fig.4  Annual variation of the reservoir water level in the TGR (2016–2018).
Fig.5  Velocity of reservoir water level fluctuation from 2016 to 2018.
conditions reservoir water level (m) rainfall COV of C and φ materials considering variation
annual analysis 0.05
0.10
0.20
silty clay
rubble soil
initial sliding surface
secondary sliding surface
Condition 1 average change
from 2016 to 2018
average precipitation
from 2016 to 2018
Staged analysis
Condition 2-1 175 to 172.5, at rate of 0.5 m/d 10 mm/d, lasting 5 days
Condition 2-2 165 to 160, at rate of 1.0 m/d 15 mm/d, lasting 5 days
Condition 2-3 145 to 147.5, at rate of 0.5 m/d 30 mm/d, lasting 5 days
Condition 2-4 150 to 155, at rate of 1.0 m/d 10 mm/d, lasting 5 days
Tab.3  Calculation schedule of rainfall and reservoir water level for slope stability analysis
Fig.6  Annual rainfall in the Bazimen landslide area from 2016 to 2018.
Fig.7  (a) Average reservoir water level and rainfall (2016-2018); (b) annual landslide stability coefficient and average annual displacement under Condition 1.
Fig.8  Monthly rainfall and displacement of the Bazimen landslide from 2003 to 2018.
Fig.9  Safety factor and failure probability of Bazimen landslide under Condition 2-1. (a) Variation of safety factor; (b)variation of failure probability with a COV of 0.05; (c) variation of failure probability with a COV of 0.10; (d) variation of failure probability with a COV of 0.20.
Fig.10  Safety factor and failure probability of Bazimen landslide under Condition 2-2. (a) Variation of safety factor; (b) variation of failure probability with a COV of 0.05; (c) variation of failure probability with a COV of 0.10; (d) variation of failure probability with a COV of 0.20.
Fig.11  Safety factor and failure probability of the Bazimen landslide under Condition 2-3. (a) Variation of safety factor; (b) variation of failure probability with a COV of 0.05; (c) variation of failure probability with a COV of 0.10; (d) variation of failure probability with a COV of 0.20.
Fig.12  Safety factor and failure probability of the Bazimen landslide under Condition 2-4. (a) Variation of safety factor; (b) variation of failure probability with a COV of 0.05; (c) variation of failure probability with a COV of 0.10; (d) variation of failure probability with a COV of 0.20.
Fig.13  The convergence curves of the probability of failure vs the number of trials, in which the most dangerous scenarios of Conditions 2-1 to 2-4 are shown. (a) Conditions 2-1; (b) Conditions 2-2; (c) Conditions 2-3; (d) Conditions 2-4.
Fig.14  The 6th day saturation of observation points under Conditions 2-1 to 2-4.
Fig.15  Volumetric water content of observation points under Condition 2-4.
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