Research progress on natural disaster chains in China from 1987 to 2024

Abstract

[Objective] Research on the chain risk transmission effects of disaster chains is an important prerequisite for formulating short-term emergency response and recovery strategies, as well as medium-to long-term prevention strategies. Systematically reviewing the development trajectory of existing research in China can clarify the future research directions in the field of disaster chains and optimize frontline disaster mitigation capabilities. [Methods] A systematic timeline-based review is conducted on over 300 papers published in Chinese core journals between 1987 and 2024 and 143 SCI-indexed papers published since 2007, all authored by scholars affiliated with Chinese institutions. [Results] The result show that:(1) over the past 38 years, research on disaster chains in China has gone through three development stages: discussion of disaster chains and related extended concepts, research on chain process deduction, and development of impact assessment method and quantitative models.(2) Existing studies primarily focus on qualitative reasoning of chain structures, while quantitative research on chain risk diffusion and transfer impact is becoming a current hotspot.(3) The studied disaster types are mostly concentrated on earthquake and geological disasters, with some result of qualitative reasoning and quantitative assessment for disasters such as rainstorms, floods, and droughts, though such studies remain relatively limited overall. The assessment of the benefits of chain-breaking disaster mitigation based on chain risk diffusion networks needs to be strengthened. Future research can consider incorporating the synergistic effects of existing disaster mitigation resources into chain risk mitigation assessment. [Conclusion] The results indicate that to better support frontline disaster prevention and mitigation, theoretical and quantitative empirical research in the field of disaster chains can be improved from four aspects: historical disaster events, disaster system science, three-dimensional monitoring networks, and the application of chain-breaking disaster mitigation strategies. These findings can provide references for researchers to accurately identify research directions in the field of disaster chains.

Keywords

disaster chain / chain structure deduction / chain risk assessment / chain-breaking disaster mitigation / risk transmission / quantitative model / disaster prevention and mitigation / influencing factors