Influence and contribution of meteorological drought on agricultural drought across different land use types in three provinces of Northeast China

Abstract

[Objective] The extent and contribution of meteorological drought's influence on agricultural drought across different land use types in the three provinces of Northeast China remain unclear. Given that meteorological drought serves as a key driver of agricultural drought, it is necessary to quantify its influence and contribution. [Methods] The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI) and the Vegetation Condition Index(VCI) were used to represent meteorological drought and agricultural drought, respectively. Using trend analysis, correlation coefficients, and residual trend analysis, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and response relationships between meteorological and agricultural drought across different land use types in the three provinces of Northeast China from 2000 to 2023 were investigated. Additionally, the contributions of climatic factors(SPEI and precipitation) and human activities to agricultural drought were evaluated. [Results] The result showed that:(1) across different regions and different land use types, both SPEI and VCI in the three provinces of Northeast China exhibited upward trends, indicating a gradual alleviation of meteorological and agricultural drought.(2) SPEI and VCI were positively correlated across different regions and different land use types, with forest land being the least sensitive.(3) The combined influence of climatic factors(SPEI and precipitation) and human activities drove changes in agricultural drought in the three provinces of Northeast China. Human activities were identified as the primary driver of agricultural drought changes in cropland, accounting for 70.5% of the total contribution. Moreover, the contribution of human activities significantly exceeded that of climatic factors, especially across the entire Liaoning Province, southeastern Jilin Province, and western Heilongjiang Province, where positive contributions from human activities exceeded 80%. [Conclusion] These findings reveal the variation patterns of meteorological and agricultural droughts in the three provinces of Northeast China and provide a theoretical basis for evaluating drought disaster relationships.

Keywords

standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index / vegetation condition index / drought response / human activities / three provinces of Northeast China / meteorological drought / land use types / influencing factors