Research on decoupling effect and driving factors of urbanization and industrial water consumption in China

Abstract

[Objective] The rapid increase in industrial water demand during the urbanization process has led to increasingly severe water scarcity, making the coordination between economic growth and sustainable water resource utilization a critical challenge. [Methods] Taking 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions) in China as the research objects, the dynamic decoupling effect and driving mechanisms between industrial water consumption and urbanization were systematically revealed from the perspective of spatiotemporal heterogeneity. By integrating Sen + Mann-Kendall trend test, the Tapio decoupling model, and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI) decomposition method, the limitations of existing studies in long-term dynamic analysis and quantitative evaluation of policy response at the provincial level were addressed. [Results] The results showed that:(1) during the study period, significant variations in industrial water consumption were observed in most provinces of China. Provinces with a decreasing trend in industrial water consumption far outnumbered those showing an increasing trend, mainly concentrated in the southeastern coastal areas, northeastern regions, and southwestern regions.(2) During the 11th Five-Year Plan period(2006—2010), urbanization and industrial water consumption showed an expansive negative decoupling relationship. During the 12th Five-Year Plan(2011—2015) and 13th Five-Year Plan(2016—2020) periods, a strong decoupling was observed, with an overall improvement in decoupling and further strengthened coordination. [Conclusion] The technological effect emerged as the primary driving factor promoting the decoupling between urbanization and industrial water consumption, while the output effect acted as the major factor inhibiting their decoupling. The structural and population effects exhibited relatively weaker impacts on the decoupling between the two. The findings can provide scientific reference for the coordinated and sustainable development of industrial water resource utilization and economic growth in China.

Keywords

industrial water consumption / urbanization / spatiotemporal evolution trend / decoupling effect / driving factors / water scarcity / sustainable development / influencing factors