Evaluation and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of agricultural water resource utilization efficiency in nine provinces and regions of Yellow River Basin under “dual-carbon” goal

Abstract

[Objective] To meet the demand for efficient and sustainable water resource utilization and to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of agricultural water resource utilization efficiency(AWRUE) in the context of carbon neutrality. [Methods] From an input-output perspective, an evaluation indicator system for AWRUE was constructed by integrating the “water-land-labor-fertilizer-machinery” input factors, covering agricultural output value, carbon sink, carbon emissions, and agricultural non-point source pollution. By coupling the super-efficiency SBM model, Malmquist index model, and standard deviational ellipse method, the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of AWRUE in nine provinces and regions of the Yellow River Basin from 2011 to 2023 were systematically revealed. The geodetector method was employed to quantitatively analyze the driving mechanisms and clarify their degree of influence on efficiency. [Results] The result showed that:(1) from 2011 to 2023, the average AWRUE in the nine provinces and regions of the Yellow River Basin increased from 0.54 to 1.03, and its center of gravity initially expanded northeastward and then shifted back southwestward.(2) The technological progress index was higher than the technical efficiency index(TC=1.049 > EC=1.001).(3) In 2011, AWRUE was predominantly driven by per capita water resources(q=0.98). Policy interventions became the core driving factor(fiscal support for agriculture, q=0.94; environmental protection investment, q=0.94) in 2015. In 2019, efficiency was driven by multidimensional coupling of resources, environment, and production. It further converged towards a policy-ecology nexus in 2023. [Conclusion] The AWRUE in the nine provinces and regions of the Yellow River Basin exhibits a three-phase pattern of “low-efficiency clustering—regional breakthrough—coordinated optimization”, with regional disparities narrowing and significant effects achieved in coordinated development. Technological progress(TC) serves as the core driver for efficiency enhancement. Slack variable analysis precisely identifies redundant factors, providing a scientific basis for optimizing resource allocation. Under the “dual-carbon” strategy, the evolution of AWRUE in the nine provinces and regions of the Yellow River Basin highlights a trend of strengthened coordination between efficient water resource utilization and low-carbon agricultural transformation. The driving mechanism undergoes a systematic transition from being dominated solely by natural endowments to multidimensional regulation integrating resources, economy, production, policy, and ecology.

Keywords

agricultural water resource utilization efficiency / agricultural carbon emissions / carbon sink / spatiotemporal heterogeneity / geodetector / super-efficiency SBM model / influencing factors / optimal allocation of resources