Study on “water-based city development” scheme in Ningxia based on interdependent constraints of human-water-city relationship

Abstract

[Objective] To explore the constraints of water resources during the rapid urban development, analyze the interdependent relationships between human, water, and city, and investigate the coupling mechanisms of the human-city and water-city pathways, thereby providing references for determining a reasonable scale for urban development. [Methods] Taking Ningxia as the study area, historical urban development data from 2006 to 2022 and the constraints of urban water supply were integrated. The human-city MP index, binary regression analysis of population size and economic structure, and the comprehensive land water use indicator method were used to analyze the reasonable range of built-up area. By balancing the rigid constraints on water resources with urban population and economic development demands, the “water-based city development” scheme was determined. [Results] In 2025, the urban water use constraint of Ningxia was projected to be 1.001 billion m³, with an urban population of 4.748 4 million. Based on these figures, the reasonable controlled area for built-up areas was calculated to be 763.33 km², representing an increase of 85.87 km² compared to the current situation(2022). To meet the control requirements of “water-based city development” scheme, the average water use in built-up areas needed to reach 1.41 m³/m², an increase of 79.7% compared to the current level. The water use per capita for the entire region was expected to be 0.43 m³/d, an increase of 23.1% compared to the current level. It was indicated that the urban water use intensity significantly improved. [Conclusion] Urban development is closely related to water resource conditions. By analyzing the relationship between rational urban scale and water resource constraints through the “water-based city development” scheme, it effectively balances the relationship between urban population growth, economic development, and sustainable water resource utilization. This provides both theoretical support and practical guidance for the scientific development of cities in water-scarce regions, promoting the coordination among population, resources, and environment.

Keywords

human-water-city relationship / water-based city development / rigid constraints on water resources / urban water use / water use intensity / influencing factors