Reliability evaluation and sensitivity analysis of hydro-wind-solar multi-energy complementary system

Abstract

Hydro-wind-solar multi-energy complementary is an effective way to promote the grid-connected consumption of new energy. To ensure the reliability of the power system, an reliability evaluation and sensitivity analysis framework of hydro-wind-solar complementary system was proposed. First, based on multivariate random simulation method, long series water, wind and solar data were simulated. Then, a long-term hydro-wind-solar stochastic optimization scheduling model was constructed and solved using stochastic dynamic programming Finally, the reliability and sensitivity of the hydro-wind-solar complementary system were analyzed through improved reliability indicators and sensitivity analysis method, respectively. A clean energy base located in the Upper Yellow River Basin, China, is selected as a case study.Under the uncertain conditions in the future, hydro-wind-solar complementary operation can effectively improve the reliability of the system, and it decreases with the increase of the total installed capacity of wind and solar power in the system. When the installation ratio of photovoltaic and wind power is 3∶7, the reliability of the complementary system is the best. Compared with the installation ratio of wind and solar power, the reliability of the complementary system is more sensitive to the total installed capacity of wind and solar power.

Keywords

hydro-wind-solar multi-energy complementary / uncertainties / random optimization scheduling / reliability evaluation / sensitivity analysis