Risk assessment of extreme flood events in eastern Sichuan Proviace

Abstract

Strengthening research on risk assessment theory of extreme flood events related to people's life-property safety and stable development of economic society in the river basin, under climate change. As a reslute of the large uncertainty and the risk assessment quantifying difficulty of flood events caused by exteme rainfall, a new flood events risk assessment method is established based on ET(Evidence Theory) and VFS(Variable Fuzzy Set). What's more, the flood events risk quantification system is built by evidence theory, and ET'S basic trust distribution function is aclculated by VFS. The method is applied to flood events risk assessment in eastern Sichuan Province, China, and it's shown that the method can accurately quantificat flood events risk, and provide support for decision making of watershed flood control and safety assessment of flood control project under climate change.

Keywords

climate change / extreme rainfall / flood / risk assessment