Flood disaster risk assessment and impact zoning of Henan Province power grid based on logistic model

Abstract

Flood risk assessment for power grids is crucial to ensuring their safe operation.This study focused on the complex basin underlay and hydrometeorological conditions within the administrative region of Henan Province, constructed an evaluation index system for flood disasters in Henan Province. Based on a binary logistic regression model, we established a mapping relationship between the index system and historical disaster occurrences to derive a flood risk probability distribution map for Henan Province by different basin. Combining this with power grid density data, we assessed the flood risk for Henan's power grid and created a flood risk zoning map of power grid. The result indicate that the Huai River basin in the southeastern part of Henan have a higher flood risk, with a concentrated occurrence of incidents, accurately reflecting historical disaster distribution. During the flood season, rainfall, which is the primary factor causing disasters, shows spatial asynchrony with flood risk in large-scale basin flood assessments. The impact of flood disasters on power grid safety shows a band-like distribution, with Pingdingshan, Xuchang, Zhengzhou, and Kaifeng identified as high-risk zones, and Xinxiang, Anyang, and Puyang as medium-risk zones. This zoning outcome can support the layout and disaster prevention and mitigation efforts of Henan's power grid and provide a technical reference for flood disaster risk assessment and analysis in administrative regions with complex basin underlays.

Keywords

flood hazards / power grid / risk zoning / binary logistic regression / Henan Province