Risk assessment of ship impact on radial gates using multi-source information fusion

Abstract

The risk of ship impact is growing for various types of water conservation facilities due to the fast-growing inland river navigation. Compared with general mass concrete water-retaining structures, e.g. dams, gate structures are thinner and thus take higher failure risks in ship-impact events. Consequently, gate structures are generally recognized as weaknesses among water-retaining structures. Unfortunately, no mature method are available for quantitative assessment of failure risks to gate structures in ship-impact events. A risk assessment study of a radial gate structure was conducted. A multi-source information fusion assessment approach based on the combination of weights, the cloud model and the D-S evidence theory was proposed. Finite element analysis was carried out to provide the data input for the risk assessment.In the current case of the ship tonnage between 200-3 000 t and the ship's speed between 1-8 m/s, the failure risk of the radial gate subjected to ship collisions is ranked as Class II. The gate should have some pitfalls in ship-impact events but can maintain its safe operation. The proposed method can directly present the gate's risk level, thus achieving quantitative assessment of failure risks to gate structures in ship-impact events. The assessment result can serve as a scientific foundation for the navigation safety management of water conservancy facilities and the formulation of the corresponding emergency plans.

Keywords

radial gate / ship collision / cloud model / combination weight / D-S evidence theory / numerical simulation / multi-source information