Analysis of carbon emission reduction contribution of water conservancy measures in Hebei Province under multiple scenarios

Abstract

[Objective] Water conservancy plays a critical role in “dual carbon” strategy. Exploring the carbon reduction potential of water conservancy measures is essential for promoting the optimization of energy structure and achieving carbon neutrality. [Methods] Based on the LEAP model and combined with economic and social development policies, scenario analysis was adopted to establish the baseline, emission reduction, and enhanced emission reduction scenarios. By employing five emission reduction measures—increasing the proportion of hydroelectric power generation, expanding geothermal water utilization, enhancing blue carbon ecosystem carbon sinks, promoting water conservation in residential and industrial sectors—the study predicted and analyzed carbon emissions and the contribution of water conservancy measures to carbon reduction under each scenario in Hebei Province from 2025 to 2060. [Results] The result showed that under the baseline scenario, Hebei Province's total carbon emissions would reach 890.54 MtCO_2e by 2060, with no peak observed during this period. Under the emission reduction scenario, annual carbon emissions would decrease compared to the baseline, but the overall trend would remain the same. Under the enhanced emission reduction scenario, carbon emissions would peak at 837.12 MtCO_2e in 2030 and decrease to 831.46 MtCO_2e by 2060. The carbon reduction potential of water conservancy measures would reach 59.08 MtCO_2e, accounting for 6.63% of total carbon emissions. In terms of emission reduction contribution, increasing the proportion of hydroelectric power generation and expanding the use of geothermal resources were the most effective water conservancy measures, contributing nearly 90% of the total carbon reduction. Although the contributions of blue carbon ecosystem carbon sinks and water-saving measures were relatively small, they still played a positive role in emission reduction. [Conclusion] The result indicate that water conservancy measures have significant carbon reduction potential in achieving the “dual carbon” goals in Hebei Province. In the future, water conservancy measures should be further optimized, particularly by strengthening the development and utilization of hydroelectric power and geothermal resources, while also promoting blue carbon ecosystems and water-saving measures to maximize their role in carbon reduction. Additionally, the effective coordination of these measures in both time and space, through systematic and coordinated operations, is essential to achieve the expected emission reduction outcomes. This study provides reference for Hebei Province to fully leverage the carbon reduction role of the water conservancy sector and achieve the “dual carbon” goals as early as possible.

Keywords

carbon emissions / mitigation potential / water conservancy sector / LEAP model / scenario analysis / influencing factors